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We propose a monitoring strategy for efficient and robust estimation of disease prevalence and case numbers within closed and enumerated populations such as schools, workplaces, or retirement communities. The proposed design relies largely on voluntary testing, notoriously biased (e.g., in the case of COVID-19) due to non-representative sampling. The approach yields unbiased and comparatively precise estimates with no assumptions about factors underlying selection of individuals for voluntary testing, building on the strength of what can be a small random sampling component. This component unlocks a previously proposed "anchor stream" estimator, a well-calibrated alternative to classical capture-recapture (CRC) estimators based on two data streams. We show here that this estimator is equivalent to a direct standardization based on "capture", i.e., selection (or not) by the voluntary testing program, made possible by means of a key parameter identified by design. This equivalency simultaneously allows for novel two-stream CRC-like estimation of general means (e.g., of continuous variables such as antibody levels or biomarkers). For inference, we propose adaptations of a Bayesian credible interval when estimating case counts and bootstrapping when estimating means of continuous variables. We use simulations to demonstrate significant precision benefits relative to random sampling alone.

Graphical models have long been studied in statistics as a tool for inferring conditional independence relationships among a large set of random variables. The most existing works in graphical modeling focus on the cases that the data are Gaussian or mixed and the variables are linearly dependent. In this paper, we propose a double regression method for learning graphical models under the high-dimensional nonlinear and non-Gaussian setting, and prove that the proposed method is consistent under mild conditions. The proposed method works by performing a series of nonparametric conditional independence tests. The conditioning set of each test is reduced via a double regression procedure where a model-free sure independence screening procedure or a sparse deep neural network can be employed. The numerical results indicate that the proposed method works well for high-dimensional nonlinear and non-Gaussian data.

Agent-based model (ABM) has been widely used to study infectious disease transmission by simulating behaviors and interactions of autonomous individuals called agents. In the ABM, agent states, for example infected or susceptible, are assigned according to a set of simple rules, and a complex dynamics of disease transmission is described by the collective states of agents over time. Despite the flexibility in real-world modeling, ABMs have received less attention by statisticians because of the intractable likelihood functions which lead to difficulty in estimating parameters and quantifying uncertainty around model outputs. To overcome this limitation, we propose to treat the entire system as a Hidden Markov Model and develop the ABM for infectious disease transmission within the Bayesian framework. The hidden states in the model are represented by individual agent's states over time. We estimate the hidden states and the parameters associated with the model by applying particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Performance of the approach for parameter recovery and prediction along with sensitivity to prior assumptions are evaluated under various simulation conditions. Finally, we apply the proposed approach to the study of COVID-19 outbreak on Diamond Princess cruise ship and examine the differences in transmission by key demographic characteristics, while considering different network structures and the limitations of COVID-19 testing in the cruise.

Two contrasting algorithmic paradigms for constraint satisfaction problems are successive local explorations of neighboring configurations versus producing new configurations using global information about the problem (e.g. approximating the marginals of the probability distribution which is uniform over satisfying configurations). This paper presents new algorithms for the latter framework, ultimately producing estimates for satisfying configurations using methods from Boolean Fourier analysis. The approach is broadly inspired by the quantum amplitude amplification algorithm in that it maximally increases the amplitude of the approximation function over satisfying configurations given sequential refinements. We demonstrate that satisfying solutions may be retrieved in a process analogous to quantum measurement made efficient by sparsity in the Fourier domain, and present a complete solver construction using this novel approximation. Freedom in the refinement strategy invites further opportunities to design solvers in an evolutionary computing framework. Results demonstrate competitive performance against local solvers for the Boolean satisfiability (SAT) problem, encouraging future work in understanding the connections between Boolean Fourier analysis and constraint satisfaction.

Explicit time integration schemes coupled with Galerkin discretizations of time-dependent partial differential equations require solving a linear system with the mass matrix at each time step. For applications in structural dynamics, the solution of the linear system is frequently approximated through so-called mass lumping, which consists in replacing the mass matrix by some diagonal approximation. Mass lumping has been widely used in engineering practice for decades already and has a sound mathematical theory supporting it for finite element methods using the classical Lagrange basis. However, the theory for more general basis functions is still missing. Our paper partly addresses this shortcoming. Some special and practically relevant properties of lumped mass matrices are proved and we discuss how these properties naturally extend to banded and Kronecker product matrices whose structure allows to solve linear systems very efficiently. Our theoretical results are applied to isogeometric discretizations but are not restricted to them.

This paper develops fast and accurate linear finite element method and fourth-order compact difference method combined with matrix transfer technique to solve high dimensional time-space fractional diffusion problem with spectral fractional Laplacian in space. In addition, a fast time stepping $L1$ scheme is used for time discretization. We can exactly evaluate fractional power of matrix in the proposed schemes, and perform matrix-vector multiplication by directly using a discrete sine transform and its inverse transform, which doesn't need to resort to any iteration method and can significantly reduce computation cost and memory. Further, we address the convergence analyses of full discrete scheme based on two types of spatial numerical methods. Finally, ample numerical examples are delivered to illustrate our theoretical analyses and the efficiency of the suggested schemes.

Traditional approaches for data anonymization consider relational data and textual data independently. We propose rx-anon, an anonymization approach for heterogeneous semi-structured documents composed of relational and textual attributes. We map sensitive terms extracted from the text to the structured data. This allows us to use concepts like k-anonymity to generate a joined, privacy-preserved version of the heterogeneous data input. We introduce the concept of redundant sensitive information to consistently anonymize the heterogeneous data. To control the influence of anonymization over unstructured textual data versus structured data attributes, we introduce a modified, parameterized Mondrian algorithm. The parameter $\lambda$ allows to give different weight on the relational and textual attributes during the anonymization process. We evaluate our approach with two real-world datasets using a Normalized Certainty Penalty score, adapted to the problem of jointly anonymizing relational and textual data. The results show that our approach is capable of reducing information loss by using the tuning parameter to control the Mondrian partitioning while guaranteeing k-anonymity for relational attributes as well as for sensitive terms. As rx-anon is a framework approach, it can be reused and extended by other anonymization algorithms, privacy models, and textual similarity metrics.

This manuscript portrays optimization as a process. In many practical applications the environment is so complex that it is infeasible to lay out a comprehensive theoretical model and use classical algorithmic theory and mathematical optimization. It is necessary as well as beneficial to take a robust approach, by applying an optimization method that learns as one goes along, learning from experience as more aspects of the problem are observed. This view of optimization as a process has become prominent in varied fields and has led to some spectacular success in modeling and systems that are now part of our daily lives.

Bid optimization for online advertising from single advertiser's perspective has been thoroughly investigated in both academic research and industrial practice. However, existing work typically assume competitors do not change their bids, i.e., the wining price is fixed, leading to poor performance of the derived solution. Although a few studies use multi-agent reinforcement learning to set up a cooperative game, they still suffer the following drawbacks: (1) They fail to avoid collusion solutions where all the advertisers involved in an auction collude to bid an extremely low price on purpose. (2) Previous works cannot well handle the underlying complex bidding environment, leading to poor model convergence. This problem could be amplified when handling multiple objectives of advertisers which are practical demands but not considered by previous work. In this paper, we propose a novel multi-objective cooperative bid optimization formulation called Multi-Agent Cooperative bidding Games (MACG). MACG sets up a carefully designed multi-objective optimization framework where different objectives of advertisers are incorporated. A global objective to maximize the overall profit of all advertisements is added in order to encourage better cooperation and also to protect self-bidding advertisers. To avoid collusion, we also introduce an extra platform revenue constraint. We analyze the optimal functional form of the bidding formula theoretically and design a policy network accordingly to generate auction-level bids. Then we design an efficient multi-agent evolutionary strategy for model optimization. Offline experiments and online A/B tests conducted on the Taobao platform indicate both single advertiser's objective and global profit have been significantly improved compared to state-of-art methods.

Since deep neural networks were developed, they have made huge contributions to everyday lives. Machine learning provides more rational advice than humans are capable of in almost every aspect of daily life. However, despite this achievement, the design and training of neural networks are still challenging and unpredictable procedures. To lower the technical thresholds for common users, automated hyper-parameter optimization (HPO) has become a popular topic in both academic and industrial areas. This paper provides a review of the most essential topics on HPO. The first section introduces the key hyper-parameters related to model training and structure, and discusses their importance and methods to define the value range. Then, the research focuses on major optimization algorithms and their applicability, covering their efficiency and accuracy especially for deep learning networks. This study next reviews major services and toolkits for HPO, comparing their support for state-of-the-art searching algorithms, feasibility with major deep learning frameworks, and extensibility for new modules designed by users. The paper concludes with problems that exist when HPO is applied to deep learning, a comparison between optimization algorithms, and prominent approaches for model evaluation with limited computational resources.