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We study the Euler scheme for scalar non-autonomous stochastic differential equations, whose diffusion coefficient is not globally Lipschitz but a fractional power of a globally Lipschitz function. We analyse the strong error and establish a criterion, which relates the convergence order of the Euler scheme to an inverse moment condition for the diffusion coefficient. Our result in particular applies to Cox-Ingersoll-Ross-, Chan-Karolyi-Longstaff-Sanders- or Wright-Fisher-type stochastic differential equations and thus provides a unifying framework.

In real-world material research, machine learning (ML) models are usually expected to predict and discover novel exceptional materials that deviate from the known materials. It is thus a pressing question to provide an objective evaluation of ML model performances in property prediction of out-of-distribution (OOD) materials that are different from the training set distribution. Traditional performance evaluation of materials property prediction models through random splitting of the dataset frequently results in artificially high performance assessments due to the inherent redundancy of typical material datasets. Here we present a comprehensive benchmark study of structure-based graph neural networks (GNNs) for extrapolative OOD materials property prediction. We formulate five different categories of OOD ML problems for three benchmark datasets from the MatBench study. Our extensive experiments show that current state-of-the-art GNN algorithms significantly underperform for the OOD property prediction tasks on average compared to their baselines in the MatBench study, demonstrating a crucial generalization gap in realistic material prediction tasks. We further examine the latent physical spaces of these GNN models and identify the sources of CGCNN, ALIGNN, and DeeperGATGNN's significantly more robust OOD performance than those of the current best models in the MatBench study (coGN and coNGN), and provide insights to improve their performance.

For multivariate data, tandem clustering is a well-known technique aiming to improve cluster identification through initial dimension reduction. Nevertheless, the usual approach using principal component analysis (PCA) has been criticized for focusing solely on inertia so that the first components do not necessarily retain the structure of interest for clustering. To address this limitation, a new tandem clustering approach based on invariant coordinate selection (ICS) is proposed. By jointly diagonalizing two scatter matrices, ICS is designed to find structure in the data while providing affine invariant components. Certain theoretical results have been previously derived and guarantee that under some elliptical mixture models, the group structure can be highlighted on a subset of the first and/or last components. However, ICS has garnered minimal attention within the context of clustering. Two challenges associated with ICS include choosing the pair of scatter matrices and selecting the components to retain. For effective clustering purposes, it is demonstrated that the best scatter pairs consist of one scatter matrix capturing the within-cluster structure and another capturing the global structure. For the former, local shape or pairwise scatters are of great interest, as is the minimum covariance determinant (MCD) estimator based on a carefully chosen subset size that is smaller than usual. The performance of ICS as a dimension reduction method is evaluated in terms of preserving the cluster structure in the data. In an extensive simulation study and empirical applications with benchmark data sets, various combinations of scatter matrices as well as component selection criteria are compared in situations with and without outliers. Overall, the new approach of tandem clustering with ICS shows promising results and clearly outperforms the PCA-based approach.

We present accurate and mathematically consistent formulations of a diffuse-interface model for two-phase flow problems involving rapid evaporation. The model addresses challenges including discontinuities in the density field by several orders of magnitude, leading to high velocity and pressure jumps across the liquid-vapor interface, along with dynamically changing interface topologies. To this end, we integrate an incompressible Navier--Stokes solver combined with a conservative level-set formulation and a regularized, i.e., diffuse, representation of discontinuities into a matrix-free adaptive finite element framework. The achievements are three-fold: First, this work proposes mathematically consistent definitions for the level-set transport velocity in the diffuse interface region by extrapolating the velocity from the liquid or gas phase, which exhibit superior prediction accuracy for the evaporated mass and the resulting interface dynamics compared to a local velocity evaluation, especially for highly curved interfaces. Second, we show that accurate prediction of the evaporation-induced pressure jump requires a consistent, namely a reciprocal, density interpolation across the interface, which satisfies local mass conservation. Third, the combination of diffuse interface models for evaporation with standard Stokes-type constitutive relations for viscous flows leads to significant pressure artifacts in the diffuse interface region. To mitigate these, we propose a modification for such constitutive model types. Through selected analytical and numerical examples, the aforementioned properties are validated. The presented model promises new insights in simulation-based prediction of melt-vapor interactions in thermal multiphase flows such as in laser-based powder bed fusion of metals.

With insurers benefiting from ever-larger amounts of data of increasing complexity, we explore a data-driven method to model dependence within multilevel claims in this paper. More specifically, we start from a non-parametric estimator for Archimedean copula generators introduced by Genest and Rivest (1993), and we extend it to diverse flexible censoring scenarios using techniques derived from survival analysis. We implement a graphical selection procedure for copulas that we validate using goodness-of-fit methods applied to complete, single-censored, and double-censored bivariate data. We illustrate the performance of our model with multiple simulation studies. We then apply our methodology to a recent Canadian automobile insurance dataset where we seek to model the dependence between the activation delays of correlated coverages. We show that our model performs quite well in selecting the best-fitted copula for the data at hand, especially when the dataset is large, and that the results can then be used as part of a larger claims reserving methodology.

The numerical solution of continuum damage mechanics (CDM) problems suffers from convergence-related challenges during the material softening stage, and consequently existing iterative solvers are subject to a trade-off between computational expense and solution accuracy. In this work, we present a novel unified arc-length (UAL) method, and we derive the formulation of the analytical tangent matrix and governing system of equations for both local and non-local gradient damage problems. Unlike existing versions of arc-length solvers that monolithically scale the external force vector, the proposed method treats the latter as an independent variable and determines the position of the system on the equilibrium path based on all the nodal variations of the external force vector. This approach renders the proposed solver substantially more efficient and robust than existing solvers used in CDM problems. We demonstrate the considerable advantages of the proposed algorithm through several benchmark 1D problems with sharp snap-backs and 2D examples under various boundary conditions and loading scenarios. The proposed UAL approach exhibits a superior ability of overcoming critical increments along the equilibrium path. Moreover, in the presented examples, the proposed UAL method is 1-2 orders of magnitude faster than force-controlled arc-length and monolithic Newton-Raphson solvers.

Accounting for exposure measurement errors has been recognized as a crucial problem in environmental epidemiology for over two decades. Bayesian hierarchical models offer a coherent probabilistic framework for evaluating associations between environmental exposures and health effects, which take into account exposure measurement errors introduced by uncertainty in the estimated exposure as well as spatial misalignment between the exposure and health outcome data. While two-stage Bayesian analyses are often regarded as a good alternative to fully Bayesian analyses when joint estimation is not feasible, there has been minimal research on how to properly propagate uncertainty from the first-stage exposure model to the second-stage health model, especially in the case of a large number of participant locations along with spatially correlated exposures. We propose a scalable two-stage Bayesian approach, called a sparse multivariate normal (sparse MVN) prior approach, based on the Vecchia approximation for assessing associations between exposure and health outcomes in environmental epidemiology. We compare its performance with existing approaches through simulation. Our sparse MVN prior approach shows comparable performance with the fully Bayesian approach, which is a gold standard but is impossible to implement in some cases. We investigate the association between source-specific exposures and pollutant (nitrogen dioxide (NO$_2$))-specific exposures and birth outcomes for 2012 in Harris County, Texas, using several approaches, including the newly developed method.

We study knowable informational dependence between empirical questions, modeled as continuous functional dependence between variables in a topological setting. We also investigate epistemic independence in topological terms and show that it is compatible with functional (but non-continuous) dependence. We then proceed to study a stronger notion of knowability based on uniformly continuous dependence. On the technical logical side, we determine the complete logics of languages that combine general functional dependence, continuous dependence, and uniformly continuous dependence.

Navigating dynamic environments requires the robot to generate collision-free trajectories and actively avoid moving obstacles. Most previous works designed path planning algorithms based on one single map representation, such as the geometric, occupancy, or ESDF map. Although they have shown success in static environments, due to the limitation of map representation, those methods cannot reliably handle static and dynamic obstacles simultaneously. To address the problem, this paper proposes a gradient-based B-spline trajectory optimization algorithm utilizing the robot's onboard vision. The depth vision enables the robot to track and represent dynamic objects geometrically based on the voxel map. The proposed optimization first adopts the circle-based guide-point algorithm to approximate the costs and gradients for avoiding static obstacles. Then, with the vision-detected moving objects, our receding-horizon distance field is simultaneously used to prevent dynamic collisions. Finally, the iterative re-guide strategy is applied to generate the collision-free trajectory. The simulation and physical experiments prove that our method can run in real-time to navigate dynamic environments safely. Our software is available on GitHub as an open-source package.

Various methods have recently been proposed to estimate causal effects with confidence intervals that are uniformly valid over a set of data generating processes when high-dimensional nuisance models are estimated by post-model-selection or machine learning estimators. These methods typically require that all the confounders are observed to ensure identification of the effects. We contribute by showing how valid semiparametric inference can be obtained in the presence of unobserved confounders and high-dimensional nuisance models. We propose uncertainty intervals which allow for unobserved confounding, and show that the resulting inference is valid when the amount of unobserved confounding is small relative to the sample size; the latter is formalized in terms of convergence rates. Simulation experiments illustrate the finite sample properties of the proposed intervals and investigate an alternative procedure that improves the empirical coverage of the intervals when the amount of unobserved confounding is large. Finally, a case study on the effect of smoking during pregnancy on birth weight is used to illustrate the use of the methods introduced to perform a sensitivity analysis to unobserved confounding.