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We used survival analysis to quantify the impact of postdischarge evaluation and management (E/M) services in preventing hospital readmission or death. Our approach avoids a specific pitfall of applying machine learning to this problem, which is an inflated estimate of the effect of interventions, due to survivors bias -- where the magnitude of inflation may be conditional on heterogeneous confounders in the population. This bias arises simply because in order to receive an intervention after discharge, a person must not have been readmitted in the intervening period. After deriving an expression for this phantom effect, we controlled for this and other biases within an inherently interpretable Bayesian survival framework. We identified case management services as being the most impactful for reducing readmissions overall.

Designing scalable estimation algorithms is a core challenge in modern statistics. Here we introduce a framework to address this challenge based on parallel approximants, which yields estimators with provable properties that operate on the entirety of very large, distributed data sets. We first formalize the class of statistics which admit straightforward calculation in distributed environments through independent parallelization. We then show how to use such statistics to approximate arbitrary functional operators in appropriate spaces, yielding a general estimation framework that does not require data to reside entirely in memory. We characterize the $L^2$ approximation properties of our approach and provide fully implemented examples of sample quantile calculation and local polynomial regression in a distributed computing environment. A variety of avenues and extensions remain open for future work.

The aim of this work is to present a model reduction technique in the framework of optimal control problems for partial differential equations. We combine two approaches used for reducing the computational cost of the mathematical numerical models: domain-decomposition (DD) methods and reduced-order modelling (ROM). In particular, we consider an optimisation-based domain-decomposition algorithm for the parameter-dependent stationary incompressible Navier-Stokes equations. Firstly, the problem is described on the subdomains coupled at the interface and solved through an optimal control problem, which leads to the complete separation of the subdomain problems in the DD method. On top of that, a reduced model for the obtained optimal-control problem is built; the procedure is based on the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition technique and a further Galerkin projection. The presented methodology is tested on two fluid dynamics benchmarks: the stationary backward-facing step and lid-driven cavity flow. The numerical tests show a significant reduction of the computational costs in terms of both the problem dimensions and the number of optimisation iterations in the domain-decomposition algorithm.

We consider the degree-Rips construction from topological data analysis, which provides a density-sensitive, multiparameter hierarchical clustering algorithm. We analyze its stability to perturbations of the input data using the correspondence-interleaving distance, a metric for hierarchical clusterings that we introduce. Taking certain one-parameter slices of degree-Rips recovers well-known methods for density-based clustering, but we show that these methods are unstable. However, we prove that degree-Rips, as a multiparameter object, is stable, and we propose an alternative approach for taking slices of degree-Rips, which yields a one-parameter hierarchical clustering algorithm with better stability properties. We prove that this algorithm is consistent, using the correspondence-interleaving distance. We provide an algorithm for extracting a single clustering from one-parameter hierarchical clusterings, which is stable with respect to the correspondence-interleaving distance. And, we integrate these methods into a pipeline for density-based clustering, which we call Persistable. Adapting tools from multiparameter persistent homology, we propose visualization tools that guide the selection of all parameters of the pipeline. We demonstrate Persistable on benchmark datasets, showing that it identifies multi-scale cluster structure in data.

The development of technologies for causal inference with the privacy preservation of distributed data has attracted considerable attention in recent years. To address this issue, we propose a data collaboration quasi-experiment (DC-QE) that enables causal inference from distributed data with privacy preservation. In our method, first, local parties construct dimensionality-reduced intermediate representations from the private data. Second, they share intermediate representations, instead of private data for privacy preservation. Third, propensity scores were estimated from the shared intermediate representations. Finally, the treatment effects were estimated from propensity scores. Our method can reduce both random errors and biases, whereas existing methods can only reduce random errors in the estimation of treatment effects. Through numerical experiments on both artificial and real-world data, we confirmed that our method can lead to better estimation results than individual analyses. Dimensionality-reduction loses some of the information in the private data and causes performance degradation. However, we observed that in the experiments, sharing intermediate representations with many parties to resolve the lack of subjects and covariates, our method improved performance enough to overcome the degradation caused by dimensionality-reduction. With the spread of our method, intermediate representations can be published as open data to help researchers find causalities and accumulated as a knowledge base.

We propose a new discrete choice model, called the generalized stochastic preference (GSP) model, that incorporates non-rationality into the stochastic preference (SP) choice model, also known as the rank- based choice model. Our model can explain several choice phenomena that cannot be represented by any SP model such as the compromise and attraction effects, but still subsumes the SP model class. The GSP model is defined as a distribution over consumer types, where each type extends the choice behavior of rational types in the SP model. We build on existing methods for estimating the SP model and propose an iterative estimation algorithm for the GSP model that finds new types by solving a integer linear program in each iteration. We further show that our proposed notion of non-rationality can be incorporated into other choice models, like the random utility maximization (RUM) model class as well as any of its subclasses. As a concrete example, we introduce the non-rational extension of the classical MNL model, which we term the generalized MNL (GMNL) model and present an efficient expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for estimating the GMNL model. Numerical evaluation on real choice data shows that the GMNL and GSP models can outperform their rational counterparts in out-of-sample prediction accuracy.

We present Surjective Sequential Neural Likelihood (SSNL) estimation, a novel method for simulation-based inference in models where the evaluation of the likelihood function is not tractable and only a simulator that can generate synthetic data is available. SSNL fits a dimensionality-reducing surjective normalizing flow model and uses it as a surrogate likelihood function which allows for conventional Bayesian inference using either Markov chain Monte Carlo methods or variational inference. By embedding the data in a low-dimensional space, SSNL solves several issues previous likelihood-based methods had when applied to high-dimensional data sets that, for instance, contain non-informative data dimensions or lie along a lower-dimensional manifold. We evaluate SSNL on a wide variety of experiments and show that it generally outperforms contemporary methods used in simulation-based inference, for instance, on a challenging real-world example from astrophysics which models the magnetic field strength of the sun using a solar dynamo model.

High-dimensional Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) are a popular mathematical modelling tool, with applications ranging from finance to computational chemistry. However, standard numerical techniques for solving these PDEs are typically affected by the curse of dimensionality. In this work, we tackle this challenge while focusing on stationary diffusion equations defined over a high-dimensional domain with periodic boundary conditions. Inspired by recent progress in sparse function approximation in high dimensions, we propose a new method called compressive Fourier collocation. Combining ideas from compressive sensing and spectral collocation, our method replaces the use of structured collocation grids with Monte Carlo sampling and employs sparse recovery techniques, such as orthogonal matching pursuit and $\ell^1$ minimization, to approximate the Fourier coefficients of the PDE solution. We conduct a rigorous theoretical analysis showing that the approximation error of the proposed method is comparable with the best $s$-term approximation (with respect to the Fourier basis) to the solution. Using the recently introduced framework of random sampling in bounded Riesz systems, our analysis shows that the compressive Fourier collocation method mitigates the curse of dimensionality with respect to the number of collocation points under sufficient conditions on the regularity of the diffusion coefficient. We also present numerical experiments that illustrate the accuracy and stability of the method for the approximation of sparse and compressible solutions.

The goal of explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) is to generate human-interpretable explanations, but there are no computationally precise theories of how humans interpret AI generated explanations. The lack of theory means that validation of XAI must be done empirically, on a case-by-case basis, which prevents systematic theory-building in XAI. We propose a psychological theory of how humans draw conclusions from saliency maps, the most common form of XAI explanation, which for the first time allows for precise prediction of explainee inference conditioned on explanation. Our theory posits that absent explanation humans expect the AI to make similar decisions to themselves, and that they interpret an explanation by comparison to the explanations they themselves would give. Comparison is formalized via Shepard's universal law of generalization in a similarity space, a classic theory from cognitive science. A pre-registered user study on AI image classifications with saliency map explanations demonstrate that our theory quantitatively matches participants' predictions of the AI.