Communication is a cornerstone of social interactions, be it with human or artificial intelligence (AI). Yet it can be harmful, depending on the honesty of the exchanged information. To study this, an agent based sociological simulation framework is presented, the reputation game. This illustrates the impact of different communication strategies on the agents' reputation. The game focuses on the trustworthiness of the participating agents, their honesty as perceived by others. In the game, each agent exchanges statements with the others about their own and each other's honesty, which lets their judgments evolve. Various sender and receiver strategies are studied, like sycophant, egocentricity, pathological lying, and aggressiveness for senders as well as awareness and lack thereof for receivers. Minimalist malicious strategies are identified, like being manipulative, dominant, or destructive, which significantly increase reputation at others' costs. Phenomena such as echo chambers, self-deception, deception symbiosis, clique formation, freezing of group opinions emerge from the dynamics. This indicates that the reputation game can be studied for complex group phenomena, to test behavioral hypothesis, and to analyze AI influenced social media. With refined rules it may help to understand social interactions, and to safeguard the design of non-abusive AI systems.
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AI and reinforcement learning (RL) have improved many areas, but are not yet widely adopted in economic policy design, mechanism design, or economics at large. At the same time, current economic methodology is limited by a lack of counterfactual data, simplistic behavioral models, and limited opportunities to experiment with policies and evaluate behavioral responses. Here we show that machine-learning-based economic simulation is a powerful policy and mechanism design framework to overcome these limitations. The AI Economist is a two-level, deep RL framework that trains both agents and a social planner who co-adapt, providing a tractable solution to the highly unstable and novel two-level RL challenge. From a simple specification of an economy, we learn rational agent behaviors that adapt to learned planner policies and vice versa. We demonstrate the efficacy of the AI Economist on the problem of optimal taxation. In simple one-step economies, the AI Economist recovers the optimal tax policy of economic theory. In complex, dynamic economies, the AI Economist substantially improves both utilitarian social welfare and the trade-off between equality and productivity over baselines. It does so despite emergent tax-gaming strategies, while accounting for agent interactions and behavioral change more accurately than economic theory. These results demonstrate for the first time that two-level, deep RL can be used for understanding and as a complement to theory for economic design, unlocking a new computational learning-based approach to understanding economic policy.
Neural networks and other machine learning models compute continuous representations, while humans communicate mostly through discrete symbols. Reconciling these two forms of communication is desirable for generating human-readable interpretations or learning discrete latent variable models, while maintaining end-to-end differentiability. Some existing approaches (such as the Gumbel-Softmax transformation) build continuous relaxations that are discrete approximations in the zero-temperature limit, while others (such as sparsemax transformations and the Hard Concrete distribution) produce discrete/continuous hybrids. In this paper, we build rigorous theoretical foundations for these hybrids, which we call "mixed random variables." Our starting point is a new "direct sum" base measure defined on the face lattice of the probability simplex. From this measure, we introduce new entropy and Kullback-Leibler divergence functions that subsume the discrete and differential cases and have interpretations in terms of code optimality. Our framework suggests two strategies for representing and sampling mixed random variables, an extrinsic ("sample-and-project") and an intrinsic one (based on face stratification). We experiment with both approaches on an emergent communication benchmark and on modeling MNIST and Fashion-MNIST data with variational auto-encoders with mixed latent variables.
An important issue for many economic experiments is how the experimenter can ensure sufficient power for rejecting one or more hypotheses. Here, we apply methods developed mainly within the area of clinical trials for testing multiple hypotheses simultaneously in adaptive, two-stage designs. Our main goal is to illustrate how this approach can be used to improve the power of economic experiments. Having briefly introduced the relevant theory, we perform a simulation study supported by the open source R package asd in order to evaluate the power of some different designs. The simulations show that the power to reject at least one hypothesis can be improved while still ensuring strong control of the overall Type I error probability, and without increasing the total sample size and thus the costs of the study. The derived designs are further illustrated by applying them to two different real-world data sets from experimental economics.
In this document, we prove the convergence of the model proposed in [1], which aims at estimating the LoRaWAN network performance in a single-gateway scenario. First, we provide an analytical proof of the existence of a fixed point solution for such a system. Then, we report experimental results, showing that the system of the two inter-dependent equations provided by the model can be solved through fixed-point iterations, and that a limited number of iterations is enough to reach convergence.
Our objective in this study is to investigate the behavior of Boolean operators on combining annotation output from multiple Natural Language Processing (NLP) systems across multiple corpora and to assess how filtering by aggregation of Unified Medical Language System (UMLS) Metathesaurus concepts affects system performance for Named Entity Recognition (NER) of UMLS concepts. We used three corpora annotated for UMLS concepts: 2010 i2b2 VA challenge set (31,161 annotations), Multi-source Integrated Platform for Answering Clinical Questions (MiPACQ) corpus (17,457 annotations including UMLS concept unique identifiers), and Fairview Health Services corpus (44,530 annotations). Our results showed that for UMLS concept matching, Boolean ensembling of the MiPACQ corpus trended towards higher performance over individual systems. Use of an approximate grid-search can help optimize the precision-recall tradeoff and can provide a set of heuristics for choosing an optimal set of ensembles.
Ambient backscatter communications have been identified for ultra-low energy wireless communications. Indeed, a tag can send a message to a reader without emitting any wave and without battery, simply by backscattering the waves generated by a source. In the simplest implementation of such a system, the tag sends a binary message by oscillating between two states and the reader detects the bits by comparing the two distinct received powers. In this paper, for the first time, we propose to study an ambient backscatter communication system, in the presence of a diffusing surface, a simple flat panel that diffuses in all directions. We establish the analytical closed form expression of the power contrast in the presence of the surface. We show that the diffusing surface improves the power contrast. Moreover our approach allows us to express the contrast to noise ratio, and therefore to establish the BER performance. Furthermore, we derive the optimum source transmit power for a given target power contrast. This makes it possible to quantify the amount of energy that can be saved at the source side, thanks to the diffusing surface.
In many systems motion occurs on deformed and deformable surfaces, setting up the possibility for dynamical interactions solely mediated by the coupling of the entities with their environment. Here we study the "two-body" dynamics of robot locomotion on a highly deformable spandex membrane in two scenarios: one in which a robot orbits a large central depression and the other where the two robots affect each other's motion solely through mutual environmental deformations. Inspired by the resemblance of the orbits of the single robot with those of general relativistic orbits around black holes, we recast the vehicle plus membrane dynamics in physical space into the geodesic motion of a "test particle" in a fiducial curved space-time and demonstrate how this framework facilitates understanding the observed dynamics. The two-robot problem also exhibits a resemblance with Einstein's general relativistic view of gravity, which in the words of Wheeler: "spacetime tells matter how to move; matter tells spacetime how to curve." We generalize this case the mapping to include a reciprocal coupling that translates into robotic curvature-based control schemes which modify interaction (promoting avoidance or aggregation) without long-range sensing. Our work provides a starting point for developing a mechanical analog gravity system as well as develops a framework that can provide insights into active matter in deformable environments and robot exploration in complex landscapes.
We analyze repeated cross-sectional survey data collected by the Institute of Global Health Innovation, to characterize the perception and behavior of the Italian population during the Covid-19 pandemic, focusing on the period that spans from April to November 2020. To accomplish this goal, we propose a Bayesian dynamic latent-class regression model, that accounts for the effect of sampling bias including survey weights into the likelihood function. According to the proposed approach, attitudes towards Covid-19 are described via three ideal behaviors that are fixed over time, corresponding to different degrees of compliance with spread-preventive measures. The overall tendency toward a specific profile dynamically changes across survey waves via a latent Gaussian process regression, that adjusts for subject-specific covariates. We illustrate the dynamic evolution of Italians' behaviors during the pandemic, providing insights on how the proportion of ideal behaviors has varied during the phases of the lockdown, while measuring the effect of age, sex, region and employment of the respondents on the attitude toward Covid-19.
There is an extensive literature in social choice theory studying the consequences of weakening the assumptions of Arrow's Impossibility Theorem. Much of this literature suggests that there is no escape from Arrow-style impossibility theorems unless one drastically violates the Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives (IIA). In this paper, we present a more positive outlook. We propose a model of comparing candidates in elections, which we call the Advantage-Standard (AS) model. The requirement that a collective choice rule (CCR) be rationalizable by the AS model is in the spirit of but weaker than IIA; yet it is stronger than what is known in the literature as weak IIA (two profiles alike on x, y cannot have opposite strict social preferences on x and y). In addition to motivating violations of IIA, the AS model makes intelligible violations of another Arrovian assumption: the negative transitivity of the strict social preference relation P. While previous literature shows that only weakening IIA to weak IIA or only weakening negative transitivity of P to acyclicity still leads to impossibility theorems, we show that jointly weakening IIA to AS rationalizability and weakening negative transitivity of P leads to no such impossibility theorems. Indeed, we show that several appealing CCRs are AS rationalizable, including even transitive CCRs.
The existence of simple, uncoupled no-regret dynamics that converge to correlated equilibria in normal-form games is a celebrated result in the theory of multi-agent systems. Specifically, it has been known for more than 20 years that when all players seek to minimize their internal regret in a repeated normal-form game, the empirical frequency of play converges to a normal-form correlated equilibrium. Extensive-form (that is, tree-form) games generalize normal-form games by modeling both sequential and simultaneous moves, as well as private information. Because of the sequential nature and presence of partial information in the game, extensive-form correlation has significantly different properties than the normal-form counterpart, many of which are still open research directions. Extensive-form correlated equilibrium (EFCE) has been proposed as the natural extensive-form counterpart to normal-form correlated equilibrium. However, it was currently unknown whether EFCE emerges as the result of uncoupled agent dynamics. In this paper, we give the first uncoupled no-regret dynamics that converge to the set of EFCEs in $n$-player general-sum extensive-form games with perfect recall. First, we introduce a notion of trigger regret in extensive-form games, which extends that of internal regret in normal-form games. When each player has low trigger regret, the empirical frequency of play is close to an EFCE. Then, we give an efficient no-trigger-regret algorithm. Our algorithm decomposes trigger regret into local subproblems at each decision point for the player, and constructs a global strategy of the player from the local solutions at each decision point.
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