This paper proposes a novel conditional heteroscedastic time series model by applying the framework of quantile regression processes to the ARCH(\infty) form of the GARCH model. This model can provide varying structures for conditional quantiles of the time series across different quantile levels, while including the commonly used GARCH model as a special case. The strict stationarity of the model is discussed. For robustness against heavy-tailed distributions, a self-weighted quantile regression (QR) estimator is proposed. While QR performs satisfactorily at intermediate quantile levels, its accuracy deteriorates at high quantile levels due to data scarcity. As a remedy, a self-weighted composite quantile regression (CQR) estimator is further introduced and, based on an approximate GARCH model with a flexible Tukey-lambda distribution for the innovations, we can extrapolate the high quantile levels by borrowing information from intermediate ones. Asymptotic properties for the proposed estimators are established. Simulation experiments are carried out to access the finite sample performance of the proposed methods, and an empirical example is presented to illustrate the usefulness of the new model.
相關內容
We study Lindstrom quantifiers that satisfy certain closure properties which are motivated by the study of polymorphisms in the context of constraint satisfaction problems (CSP). When the algebra of polymorphisms of a finite structure B satisfies certain equations, this gives rise to a natural closure condition on the class of structures that map homomorphically to B. The collection of quantifiers that satisfy closure conditions arising from a fixed set of equations are rather more general than those arising as CSP. For any such conditions P, we define a pebble game that delimits the distinguishing power of the infinitary logic with all quantifiers that are P-closed. We use the pebble game to show that the problem of deciding whether a system of linear equations is solvable in Z2 is not expressible in the infinitary logic with all quantifiers closed under a near-unanimity condition.
This paper derives a discrete dual problem for a prototypical hybrid high-order method for convex minimization problems. The discrete primal and dual problem satisfy a weak convex duality that leads to a priori error estimates with convergence rates under additional smoothness assumptions. This duality holds for general polytopal meshes and arbitrary polynomial degree of the discretization. A nouvelle postprocessing is proposed and allows for a~posteriori error estimates on simplicial meshes using primal-dual techniques. This motivates an adaptive mesh-refining algorithm, which performs superiorly compared to uniform mesh refinements.
In this paper, to the best of our knowledge, we make the first attempt at studying the parametric semilinear elliptic eigenvalue problems with the parametric coefficient and some power-type nonlinearities. The parametric coefficient is assumed to have an affine dependence on the countably many parameters with an appropriate class of sequences of functions. In this paper, we obtain the upper bound estimation for the mixed derivatives of the ground eigenpairs that has the same form obtained recently for the linear eigenvalue problem. The three most essential ingredients for this estimation are the parametric analyticity of the ground eigenpairs, the uniform boundedness of the ground eigenpairs, and the uniform positive differences between ground eigenvalues of linear operators. All these three ingredients need new techniques and a careful investigation of the nonlinear eigenvalue problem that will be presented in this paper. As an application, considering each parameter as a uniformly distributed random variable, we estimate the expectation of the eigenpairs using a randomly shifted quasi-Monte Carlo lattice rule and show the dimension-independent error bound.
This note presents a refined local approximation for the logarithm of the ratio between the negative multinomial probability mass function and a multivariate normal density, both having the same mean-covariance structure. This approximation, which is derived using Stirling's formula and a meticulous treatment of Taylor expansions, yields an upper bound on the Hellinger distance between the jittered negative multinomial distribution and the corresponding multivariate normal distribution. Upper bounds on the Le Cam distance between negative multinomial and multivariate normal experiments ensue.
Particle methods based on evolving the spatial derivatives of the solution were originally introduced to simulate reaction-diffusion processes, inspired by vortex methods for the Navier--Stokes equations. Such methods, referred to as gradient random walk methods, were extensively studied in the '90s and have several interesting features, such as being grid free, automatically adapting to the solution by concentrating elements where the gradient is large and significantly reducing the variance of the standard random walk approach. In this work, we revive these ideas by showing how to generalize the approach to a larger class of partial differential equations, including hyperbolic systems of conservation laws. To achieve this goal, we first extend the classical Monte Carlo method to relaxation approximation of systems of conservation laws, and subsequently consider a novel particle dynamics based on the spatial derivatives of the solution. The methodology, combined with asymptotic-preserving splitting discretization, yields a way to construct a new class of gradient-based Monte Carlo methods for hyperbolic systems of conservation laws. Several results in one spatial dimension for scalar equations and systems of conservation laws show that the new methods are very promising and yield remarkable improvements compared to standard Monte Carlo approaches, either in terms of variance reduction as well as in describing the shock structure.
V. Levenshtein first proposed the sequence reconstruction problem in 2001. This problem studies the model where the same sequence from some set is transmitted over multiple channels, and the decoder receives the different outputs. Assume that the transmitted sequence is at distance $d$ from some code and there are at most $r$ errors in every channel. Then the sequence reconstruction problem is to find the minimum number of channels required to recover exactly the transmitted sequence that has to be greater than the maximum intersection between two metric balls of radius $r$, where the distance between their centers is at least $d$. In this paper, we study the sequence reconstruction problem of permutations under the Hamming distance. In this model we define a Cayley graph over the symmetric group, study its properties and find the exact value of the largest intersection of its two metric balls for $d=2r$. Moreover, we give a lower bound on the largest intersection of two metric balls for $d=2r-1$.
In recent work, the authors introduced the notion of n-dimensional Boolean algebra and the corresponding propositional logic nCL. In this paper, we introduce a sequent calculus for nCL and we show its soundness and completeness. Completeness relies on the generalisation to the n-ary case of the classical proof based on the Lindenbaum algebra of formulas and on Boolean ultrafilters.
This paper introduces a first implementation of a novel likelihood-ratio-based approach for constructing confidence intervals for neural networks. Our method, called DeepLR, offers several qualitative advantages: most notably, the ability to construct asymmetric intervals that expand in regions with a limited amount of data, and the inherent incorporation of factors such as the amount of training time, network architecture, and regularization techniques. While acknowledging that the current implementation of the method is prohibitively expensive for many deep-learning applications, the high cost may already be justified in specific fields like medical predictions or astrophysics, where a reliable uncertainty estimate for a single prediction is essential. This work highlights the significant potential of a likelihood-ratio-based uncertainty estimate and establishes a promising avenue for future research.
Designing scalable estimation algorithms is a core challenge in modern statistics. Here we introduce a framework to address this challenge based on parallel approximants, which yields estimators with provable properties that operate on the entirety of very large, distributed data sets. We first formalize the class of statistics which admit straightforward calculation in distributed environments through independent parallelization. We then show how to use such statistics to approximate arbitrary functional operators in appropriate spaces, yielding a general estimation framework that does not require data to reside entirely in memory. We characterize the $L^2$ approximation properties of our approach and provide fully implemented examples of sample quantile calculation and local polynomial regression in a distributed computing environment. A variety of avenues and extensions remain open for future work.
Algorithms for solving the linear classification problem have a long history, dating back at least to 1936 with linear discriminant analysis. For linearly separable data, many algorithms can obtain the exact solution to the corresponding 0-1 loss classification problem efficiently, but for data which is not linearly separable, it has been shown that this problem, in full generality, is NP-hard. Alternative approaches all involve approximations of some kind, including the use of surrogates for the 0-1 loss (for example, the hinge or logistic loss) or approximate combinatorial search, none of which can be guaranteed to solve the problem exactly. Finding efficient algorithms to obtain an exact i.e. globally optimal solution for the 0-1 loss linear classification problem with fixed dimension, remains an open problem. In research we report here, we detail the rigorous construction of a new algorithm, incremental cell enumeration (ICE), that can solve the 0-1 loss classification problem exactly in polynomial time. We prove correctness using concepts from the theory of hyperplane arrangements and oriented matroids. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this algorithm on synthetic and real-world datasets, showing optimal accuracy both in and out-of-sample, in practical computational time. We also empirically demonstrate how the use of approximate upper bound leads to polynomial time run-time improvements to the algorithm whilst retaining exactness. To our knowledge, this is the first, rigorously-proven polynomial time, practical algorithm for this long-standing problem.
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191