Interest-free promotions are a prevalent strategy employed by credit card lenders to attract new customers, yet the research exploring their effects on both consumers and lenders remains relatively sparse. The process of selecting an optimal promotion strategy is intricate, involving the determination of an interest-free period duration and promotion-availability window, all within the context of competing offers, fluctuating market dynamics, and complex consumer behaviour. In this paper, we introduce an agent-based model that facilitates the exploration of various credit card promotions under diverse market scenarios. Our approach, distinct from previous agent-based models, concentrates on optimising promotion strategies and is calibrated using benchmarks from the UK credit card market from 2019 to 2020, with agent properties derived from historical distributions of the UK population from roughly the same period. We validate our model against stylised facts and time-series data, thereby demonstrating the value of this technique for investigating pricing strategies and understanding credit card customer behaviour. Our experiments reveal that, in the absence of competitor promotions, lender profit is maximised by an interest-free duration of approximately 12 months while market share is maximised by offering the longest duration possible. When competitors do not offer promotions, extended promotion availability windows yield maximum profit for lenders while also maximising market share. In the context of concurrent interest-free promotions, we identify that the optimal lender strategy entails offering a more competitive interest-free period and a rapid response to competing promotional offers. Notably, a delay of three months in responding to a rival promotion corresponds to a 2.4% relative decline in income.
We revisit existing linear computation coding (LCC) algorithms, and introduce a new framework that measures the computational cost of computing multidimensional linear functions, not only in terms of the number of additions, but also with respect to their suitability for parallel processing. Utilizing directed acyclic graphs, which correspond to signal flow graphs in hardware, we propose a novel LCC algorithm that controls the trade-off between the total number of operations and their parallel executability. Numerical evaluations show that the proposed algorithm, constrained to a fully parallel structure, outperforms existing schemes.
Sonification is a data visualization technique which expresses data attributes via psychoacoustic parameters, which are non-speech audio signals used to convey information. This paper investigates the binary estimation of cognitive load induced by psychoacoustic parameters conveying the focus level of an astronomical image via Electroencephalogram (EEG) embeddings. Employing machine learning and deep learning methodologies, we demonstrate that EEG signals are reliable for (a) binary estimation of cognitive load, (b) isolating easy vs difficult visual-to-auditory perceptual mappings, and (c) capturing perceptual similarities among psychoacoustic parameters. Our key findings reveal that (1) EEG embeddings can reliably measure cognitive load, achieving a peak F1-score of 0.98; (2) Extreme focus levels are easier to detect via auditory mappings than intermediate ones, and (3) psychoacoustic parameters inducing comparable cognitive load levels tend to generate similar EEG encodings.
The introduction of computerized medical records in hospitals has reduced burdensome activities like manual writing and information fetching. However, the data contained in medical records are still far underutilized, primarily because extracting data from unstructured textual medical records takes time and effort. Information Extraction, a subfield of Natural Language Processing, can help clinical practitioners overcome this limitation by using automated text-mining pipelines. In this work, we created the first Italian neuropsychiatric Named Entity Recognition dataset, PsyNIT, and used it to develop a Transformers-based model. Moreover, we collected and leveraged three external independent datasets to implement an effective multicenter model, with overall F1-score 84.77%, Precision 83.16%, Recall 86.44%. The lessons learned are: (i) the crucial role of a consistent annotation process and (ii) a fine-tuning strategy that combines classical methods with a "low-resource" approach. This allowed us to establish methodological guidelines that pave the way for Natural Language Processing studies in less-resourced languages.
Cyber-physical systems (CPS) offer immense optimization potential for manufacturing processes through the availability of multivariate time series data of actors and sensors. Based on automated analysis software, the deployment of adaptive and responsive measures is possible for time series data. Due to the complex and dynamic nature of modern manufacturing, analysis and modeling often cannot be entirely automated. Even machine- or deep learning approaches often depend on a priori expert knowledge and labelling. In this paper, an information-based data preprocessing approach is proposed. By applying statistical methods including variance and correlation analysis, an approximation of the sampling rate in event-based systems and the utilization of spectral analysis, knowledge about the underlying manufacturing processes can be gained prior to modeling. The paper presents, how statistical analysis enables the pruning of a dataset's least important features and how the sampling rate approximation approach sets the base for further data analysis and modeling. The data's underlying periodicity, originating from the cyclic nature of an automated manufacturing process, will be detected by utilizing the fast Fourier transform. This information-based preprocessing method will then be validated for process time series data of cyber-physical systems' programmable logic controllers (PLC).
Energy theft, characterized by manipulating energy consumption readings to reduce payments, poses a dual threat-causing financial losses for grid operators and undermining the performance of smart grids. Effective Energy Theft Detection (ETD) methods become crucial in mitigating these risks by identifying such fraudulent activities in their early stages. However, the majority of current ETD methods rely on supervised learning, which is hindered by the difficulty of labelling data and the risk of overfitting known attacks. To address these challenges, several unsupervised ETD methods have been proposed, focusing on learning the normal patterns from honest users, specifically the reconstruction of input. However, our investigation reveals a limitation in current unsupervised ETD methods, as they can only detect anomalous behaviours in users exhibiting regular patterns. Users with high-variance behaviours pose a challenge to these methods. In response, this paper introduces a Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM)-based ETD approach. This innovative approach demonstrates impressive ETD performance on high-variance smart grid data by incorporating additional attributes correlated with energy consumption. The proposed methods improve the average ETD performance on high-variance smart grid data from below 0.5 to over 0.9 w.r.t. AUC. On the other hand, our experimental findings indicate that while the state-of-the-art ETD methods based on reconstruction error can identify ETD attacks for the majority of users, they prove ineffective in detecting attacks for certain users. To address this, we propose a novel ensemble approach that considers both reconstruction error and forecasting error, enhancing the robustness of the ETD methodology. The proposed ensemble method improves the average ETD performance on the stealthiest attacks from nearly 0 to 0.5 w.r.t. 5%-TPR.
Self-supervised learning methods are gaining increasing traction in computer vision due to their recent success in reducing the gap with supervised learning. In natural language processing (NLP) self-supervised learning and transformers are already the methods of choice. The recent literature suggests that the transformers are becoming increasingly popular also in computer vision. So far, the vision transformers have been shown to work well when pretrained either using a large scale supervised data or with some kind of co-supervision, e.g. in terms of teacher network. These supervised pretrained vision transformers achieve very good results in downstream tasks with minimal changes. In this work we investigate the merits of self-supervised learning for pretraining image/vision transformers and then using them for downstream classification tasks. We propose Self-supervised vIsion Transformers (SiT) and discuss several self-supervised training mechanisms to obtain a pretext model. The architectural flexibility of SiT allows us to use it as an autoencoder and work with multiple self-supervised tasks seamlessly. We show that a pretrained SiT can be finetuned for a downstream classification task on small scale datasets, consisting of a few thousand images rather than several millions. The proposed approach is evaluated on standard datasets using common protocols. The results demonstrate the strength of the transformers and their suitability for self-supervised learning. We outperformed existing self-supervised learning methods by large margin. We also observed that SiT is good for few shot learning and also showed that it is learning useful representation by simply training a linear classifier on top of the learned features from SiT. Pretraining, finetuning, and evaluation codes will be available under: //github.com/Sara-Ahmed/SiT.
Search in social networks such as Facebook poses different challenges than in classical web search: besides the query text, it is important to take into account the searcher's context to provide relevant results. Their social graph is an integral part of this context and is a unique aspect of Facebook search. While embedding-based retrieval (EBR) has been applied in eb search engines for years, Facebook search was still mainly based on a Boolean matching model. In this paper, we discuss the techniques for applying EBR to a Facebook Search system. We introduce the unified embedding framework developed to model semantic embeddings for personalized search, and the system to serve embedding-based retrieval in a typical search system based on an inverted index. We discuss various tricks and experiences on end-to-end optimization of the whole system, including ANN parameter tuning and full-stack optimization. Finally, we present our progress on two selected advanced topics about modeling. We evaluated EBR on verticals for Facebook Search with significant metrics gains observed in online A/B experiments. We believe this paper will provide useful insights and experiences to help people on developing embedding-based retrieval systems in search engines.
Most existing knowledge graphs suffer from incompleteness, which can be alleviated by inferring missing links based on known facts. One popular way to accomplish this is to generate low-dimensional embeddings of entities and relations, and use these to make inferences. ConvE, a recently proposed approach, applies convolutional filters on 2D reshapings of entity and relation embeddings in order to capture rich interactions between their components. However, the number of interactions that ConvE can capture is limited. In this paper, we analyze how increasing the number of these interactions affects link prediction performance, and utilize our observations to propose InteractE. InteractE is based on three key ideas -- feature permutation, a novel feature reshaping, and circular convolution. Through extensive experiments, we find that InteractE outperforms state-of-the-art convolutional link prediction baselines on FB15k-237. Further, InteractE achieves an MRR score that is 9%, 7.5%, and 23% better than ConvE on the FB15k-237, WN18RR and YAGO3-10 datasets respectively. The results validate our central hypothesis -- that increasing feature interaction is beneficial to link prediction performance. We make the source code of InteractE available to encourage reproducible research.
Recently, ensemble has been applied to deep metric learning to yield state-of-the-art results. Deep metric learning aims to learn deep neural networks for feature embeddings, distances of which satisfy given constraint. In deep metric learning, ensemble takes average of distances learned by multiple learners. As one important aspect of ensemble, the learners should be diverse in their feature embeddings. To this end, we propose an attention-based ensemble, which uses multiple attention masks, so that each learner can attend to different parts of the object. We also propose a divergence loss, which encourages diversity among the learners. The proposed method is applied to the standard benchmarks of deep metric learning and experimental results show that it outperforms the state-of-the-art methods by a significant margin on image retrieval tasks.
Recommender systems play a crucial role in mitigating the problem of information overload by suggesting users' personalized items or services. The vast majority of traditional recommender systems consider the recommendation procedure as a static process and make recommendations following a fixed strategy. In this paper, we propose a novel recommender system with the capability of continuously improving its strategies during the interactions with users. We model the sequential interactions between users and a recommender system as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) and leverage Reinforcement Learning (RL) to automatically learn the optimal strategies via recommending trial-and-error items and receiving reinforcements of these items from users' feedbacks. In particular, we introduce an online user-agent interacting environment simulator, which can pre-train and evaluate model parameters offline before applying the model online. Moreover, we validate the importance of list-wise recommendations during the interactions between users and agent, and develop a novel approach to incorporate them into the proposed framework LIRD for list-wide recommendations. The experimental results based on a real-world e-commerce dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.