Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) is a popular method for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE). However, empirical studies show that the IPTW estimators can be sensitive to the misspecification of the propensity score model. To address this problem, researchers have proposed to estimate propensity score by directly optimizing the balance of pre-treatment covariates. While these methods appear to empirically perform well, little is known about how the choice of balancing conditions affects their theoretical properties. To fill this gap, we first characterize the asymptotic bias and efficiency of the IPTW estimator based on the Covariate Balancing Propensity Score (CBPS) methodology under local model misspecification. Based on this analysis, we show how to optimally choose the covariate balancing functions and propose an optimal CBPS-based IPTW estimator. This estimator is doubly robust; it is consistent for the ATE if either the propensity score model or the outcome model is correct. In addition, the proposed estimator is locally semiparametric efficient when both models are correctly specified. To further relax the parametric assumptions, we extend our method by using a sieve estimation approach. We show that the resulting estimator is globally efficient under a set of much weaker assumptions and has a smaller asymptotic bias than the existing estimators. Finally, we evaluate the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators via simulation and empirical studies. An open-source software package is available for implementing the proposed methods.
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We establish connections between invariant theory and maximum likelihood estimation for discrete statistical models. We show that norm minimization over a torus orbit is equivalent to maximum likelihood estimation in log-linear models. We use notions of stability under a torus action to characterize the existence of the maximum likelihood estimate, and discuss connections to scaling algorithms.
In cluster randomized trials, patients are typically recruited after clusters are randomized, and the recruiters and patients may not be blinded to the assignment. This often leads to differential recruitment and consequently systematic differences in baseline characteristics of the recruited patients between intervention and control arms, inducing post-randomization selection bias. We rigorously define causal estimands in the presence of selection bias. We elucidate the conditions under which standard covariate adjustment methods can validly estimate these estimands. We further discuss the additional data and assumptions necessary for estimating causal effects when such conditions are not met. Adopting the principal stratification framework in causal inference, we clarify there are two average treatment effect (ATE) estimands in cluster randomized trials: one for the overall population and one for the recruited population. We derive the analytical formula of the two estimands in terms of principal-stratum-specific causal effects. Using simulation studies, we assess the empirical performance of the multivariable regression adjustment method under different data generating processes leading to selection bias. When treatment effects are heterogeneous across principal strata, the ATE on the overall population generally differs from the ATE on the recruited population. An intention-to-treat analysis of the recruited sample leads to biased estimates of both ATEs. In the presence of post-randomization selection and without additional data on the non-recruited subjects, the ATE on the recruited population is estimable only when the treatment effects are homogenous between principal strata, and the ATE on the overall population is generally not estimable. The extent to which covariate adjustment can remove selection bias depends on the degree of effect heterogeneity across principal strata.
The noncentral Wishart distribution has become more mainstream in statistics as the prevalence of applications involving sample covariances with underlying multivariate Gaussian populations as dramatically increased since the advent of computers. Multiple sources in the literature deal with local approximations of the noncentral Wishart distribution with respect to its central counterpart. However, no source has yet developed explicit local approximations for the (central) Wishart distribution in terms of a normal analogue, which is important since Gaussian distributions are at the heart of the asymptotic theory for many statistical methods. In this paper, we prove a precise asymptotic expansion for the ratio of the Wishart density to the symmetric matrix-variate normal density with the same mean and covariances. The result is then used to derive an upper bound on the total variation between the corresponding probability measures and to find the pointwise variance of a new density estimator on the space of positive definite matrices with a Wishart asymmetric kernel. For the sake of completeness, we also find expressions for the pointwise bias of our new estimator, the pointwise variance as we move towards the boundary of its support, the mean squared error, the mean integrated squared error away from the boundary, and we prove its asymptotic normality.
We propose a novel method for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects based on the fused lasso. By first ordering samples based on the propensity or prognostic score, we match units from the treatment and control groups. We then run the fused lasso to obtain piecewise constant treatment effects with respect to the ordering defined by the score. Similar to the existing methods based on discretizing the score, our methods yields interpretable subgroup effects. However, the existing methods fixed the subgroup a priori, but our causal fused lasso forms data-adaptive subgroups. We show that the estimator consistently estimates the treatment effects conditional on the score under very general conditions on the covariates and treatment. We demonstrate the performance of our procedure using extensive experiments that show that it can outperform state-of-the-art methods.
Linear thresholding models postulate that the conditional distribution of a response variable in terms of covariates differs on the two sides of a (typically unknown) hyperplane in the covariate space. A key goal in such models is to learn about this separating hyperplane. Exact likelihood or least squares methods to estimate the thresholding parameter involve an indicator function which make them difficult to optimize and are, therefore, often tackled by using a surrogate loss that uses a smooth approximation to the indicator. In this paper, we demonstrate that the resulting estimator is asymptotically normal with a near optimal rate of convergence: $n^{-1}$ up to a log factor, in both classification and regression thresholding models. This is substantially faster than the currently established convergence rates of smoothed estimators for similar models in the statistics and econometrics literatures. We also present a real-data application of our approach to an environmental data set where $CO_2$ emission is explained in terms of a separating hyperplane defined through per-capita GDP and urban agglomeration.
We study the polynomial approximation of symmetric multivariate functions. Specifically, we consider $f(x_1, \dots, x_N)$, where $x_i \in \mathbb{R}^d$, and $f$ is invariant under permutations of its $N$ arguments. We demonstrate how these symmetries can be exploited to improve the cost versus error ratio in a polynomial approximation of the function $f$, and in particular study the dependence of that ratio on $d, N$ and the polynomial degree.
This article introduces a flexible and adaptive nonparametric method for estimating the association between multiple covariates and power spectra of multiple time series. The proposed approach uses a Bayesian sum of trees model to capture complex dependencies and interactions between covariates and the power spectrum, which are often observed in studies of biomedical time series. Local power spectra corresponding to terminal nodes within trees are estimated nonparametrically using Bayesian penalized linear splines. The trees are considered to be random and fit using a Bayesian backfitting Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that sequentially considers tree modifications via reversible-jump MCMC techniques. For high-dimensional covariates, a sparsity-inducing Dirichlet hyperprior on tree splitting proportions is considered, which provides sparse estimation of covariate effects and efficient variable selection. By averaging over the posterior distribution of trees, the proposed method can recover both smooth and abrupt changes in the power spectrum across multiple covariates. Empirical performance is evaluated via simulations to demonstrate the proposed method's ability to accurately recover complex relationships and interactions. The proposed methodology is used to study gait maturation in young children by evaluating age-related changes in power spectra of stride interval time series in the presence of other covariates.
Leveraging biased click data for optimizing learning to rank systems has been a popular approach in information retrieval. Because click data is often noisy and biased, a variety of methods have been proposed to construct unbiased learning to rank (ULTR) algorithms for the learning of unbiased ranking models. Among them, automatic unbiased learning to rank (AutoULTR) algorithms that jointly learn user bias models (i.e., propensity models) with unbiased rankers have received a lot of attention due to their superior performance and low deployment cost in practice. Despite their differences in theories and algorithm design, existing studies on ULTR usually use uni-variate ranking functions to score each document or result independently. On the other hand, recent advances in context-aware learning-to-rank models have shown that multivariate scoring functions, which read multiple documents together and predict their ranking scores jointly, are more powerful than uni-variate ranking functions in ranking tasks with human-annotated relevance labels. Whether such superior performance would hold in ULTR with noisy data, however, is mostly unknown. In this paper, we investigate existing multivariate scoring functions and AutoULTR algorithms in theory and prove that permutation invariance is a crucial factor that determines whether a context-aware learning-to-rank model could be applied to existing AutoULTR framework. Our experiments with synthetic clicks on two large-scale benchmark datasets show that AutoULTR models with permutation-invariant multivariate scoring functions significantly outperform those with uni-variate scoring functions and permutation-variant multivariate scoring functions.
Implicit probabilistic models are models defined naturally in terms of a sampling procedure and often induces a likelihood function that cannot be expressed explicitly. We develop a simple method for estimating parameters in implicit models that does not require knowledge of the form of the likelihood function or any derived quantities, but can be shown to be equivalent to maximizing likelihood under some conditions. Our result holds in the non-asymptotic parametric setting, where both the capacity of the model and the number of data examples are finite. We also demonstrate encouraging experimental results.
Many problems on signal processing reduce to nonparametric function estimation. We propose a new methodology, piecewise convex fitting (PCF), and give a two-stage adaptive estimate. In the first stage, the number and location of the change points is estimated using strong smoothing. In the second stage, a constrained smoothing spline fit is performed with the smoothing level chosen to minimize the MSE. The imposed constraint is that a single change point occurs in a region about each empirical change point of the first-stage estimate. This constraint is equivalent to requiring that the third derivative of the second-stage estimate has a single sign in a small neighborhood about each first-stage change point. We sketch how PCF may be applied to signal recovery, instantaneous frequency estimation, surface reconstruction, image segmentation, spectral estimation and multivariate adaptive regression.
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