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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important component of the global climate, known to be a tipping element, as it could collapse under global warming. The main objective of this study is to compute the probability that the AMOC collapses within a specified time window, using a rare-event algorithm called Trajectory-Adaptive Multilevel Splitting (TAMS). However, the efficiency and accuracy of TAMS depend on the choice of the score function. Although the definition of the optimal score function, called ``committor function" is known, it is impossible in general to compute it a priori. Here, we combine TAMS with a Next-Generation Reservoir Computing technique that estimates the committor function from the data generated by the rare-event algorithm. We test this technique in a stochastic box model of the AMOC for which two types of transition exist, the so-called F(ast)-transitions and S(low)-transitions. Results for the F-transtions compare favorably with those in the literature where a physically-informed score function was used. We show that coupling a rare-event algorithm with machine learning allows for a correct estimation of transition probabilities, transition times, and even transition paths for a wide range of model parameters. We then extend these results to the more difficult problem of S-transitions in the same model. In both cases of F- and S-transitions, we also show how the Next-Generation Reservoir Computing technique can be interpreted to retrieve an analytical estimate of the committor function.

Dynamical systems across the sciences, from electrical circuits to ecological networks, undergo qualitative and often catastrophic changes in behavior, called bifurcations, when their underlying parameters cross a threshold. Existing methods predict oncoming catastrophes in individual systems but are primarily time-series-based and struggle both to categorize qualitative dynamical regimes across diverse systems and to generalize to real data. To address this challenge, we propose a data-driven, physically-informed deep-learning framework for classifying dynamical regimes and characterizing bifurcation boundaries based on the extraction of topologically invariant features. We focus on the paradigmatic case of the supercritical Hopf bifurcation, which is used to model periodic dynamics across a wide range of applications. Our convolutional attention method is trained with data augmentations that encourage the learning of topological invariants which can be used to detect bifurcation boundaries in unseen systems and to design models of biological systems like oscillatory gene regulatory networks. We further demonstrate our method's use in analyzing real data by recovering distinct proliferation and differentiation dynamics along pancreatic endocrinogenesis trajectory in gene expression space based on single-cell data. Our method provides valuable insights into the qualitative, long-term behavior of a wide range of dynamical systems, and can detect bifurcations or catastrophic transitions in large-scale physical and biological systems.

We generalize the Poisson limit theorem to binary functions of random objects whose law is invariant under the action of an amenable group. Examples include stationary random fields, exchangeable sequences, and exchangeable graphs. A celebrated result of E. Lindenstrauss shows that normalized sums over certain increasing subsets of such groups approximate expectations. Our results clarify that the corresponding unnormalized sums of binary statistics are asymptotically Poisson, provided suitable mixing conditions hold. They extend further to randomly subsampled sums and also show that strict invariance of the distribution is not needed if the requisite mixing condition defined by the group holds. We illustrate the results with applications to random fields, Cayley graphs, and Poisson processes on groups.

We study discretizations of fractional fully nonlinear equations by powers of discrete Laplacians. Our problems are parabolic and of order $\sigma\in(0,2)$ since they involve fractional Laplace operators $(-\Delta)^{\sigma/2}$. They arise e.g.~in control and game theory as dynamic programming equations, and solutions are non-smooth in general and should be interpreted as viscosity solutions. Our approximations are realized as finite-difference quadrature approximations and are 2nd order accurate for all values of $\sigma$. The accuracy of previous approximations depend on $\sigma$ and are worse when $\sigma$ is close to $2$. We show that the schemes are monotone, consistent, $L^\infty$-stable, and convergent using a priori estimates, viscosity solutions theory, and the method of half-relaxed limits. We present several numerical examples.

In recent years, the Adaptive Antoulas-Anderson AAA algorithm has established itself as the method of choice for solving rational approximation problems. Data-driven Model Order Reduction (MOR) of large-scale Linear Time-Invariant (LTI) systems represents one of the many applications in which this algorithm has proven to be successful since it typically generates reduced-order models (ROMs) efficiently and in an automated way. Despite its effectiveness and numerical reliability, the classical AAA algorithm is not guaranteed to return a ROM that retains the same structural features of the underlying dynamical system, such as the stability of the dynamics. In this paper, we propose a novel algebraic characterization for the stability of ROMs with transfer function obeying the AAA barycentric structure. We use this characterization to formulate a set of convex constraints on the free coefficients of the AAA model that, whenever verified, guarantee by construction the asymptotic stability of the resulting ROM. We suggest how to embed such constraints within the AAA optimization routine, and we validate experimentally the effectiveness of the resulting algorithm, named stabAAA, over a set of relevant MOR applications.

We consider approximation of the variable-coefficient Helmholtz equation in the exterior of a Dirichlet obstacle using perfectly-matched-layer (PML) truncation; it is well known that this approximation is exponentially accurate in the PML width and the scaling angle, and the approximation was recently proved to be exponentially accurate in the wavenumber $k$ in [Galkowski, Lafontaine, Spence, 2021]. We show that the $hp$-FEM applied to this problem does not suffer from the pollution effect, in that there exist $C_1,C_2>0$ such that if $hk/p\leq C_1$ and $p \geq C_2 \log k$ then the Galerkin solutions are quasioptimal (with constant independent of $k$), under the following two conditions (i) the solution operator of the original Helmholtz problem is polynomially bounded in $k$ (which occurs for "most" $k$ by [Lafontaine, Spence, Wunsch, 2021]), and (ii) either there is no obstacle and the coefficients are smooth or the obstacle is analytic and the coefficients are analytic in a neighbourhood of the obstacle and smooth elsewhere. This $hp$-FEM result is obtained via a decomposition of the PML solution into "high-" and "low-frequency" components, analogous to the decomposition for the original Helmholtz solution recently proved in [Galkowski, Lafontaine, Spence, Wunsch, 2022]. The decomposition is obtained using tools from semiclassical analysis (i.e., the PDE techniques specifically designed for studying Helmholtz problems with large $k$).

This paper studies the convergence of a spatial semidiscretization of a three-dimensional stochastic Allen-Cahn equation with multiplicative noise. For non-smooth initial values, the regularity of the mild solution is investigated, and an error estimate is derived with the spatial $ L^2 $-norm. For smooth initial values, two error estimates with the general spatial $ L^q $-norms are established.

Semivariance is a measure of the dispersion of all observations that fall above the mean or target value of a random variable and it plays an important role in life-length, actuarial and income studies. In this paper, we develop a new non-parametric test for equality of upper semi-variance. We use the U-statistic theory to derive the test statistic and then study the asymptotic properties of the test statistic. We also develop a jackknife empirical likelihood (JEL) ratio test for equality of upper Semivariance. Extensive Monte Carlo simulation studies are carried out to validate the performance of the proposed JEL-based test. We illustrate the test procedure using real data.

We develop a novel and efficient discontinuous Galerkin spectral element method (DG-SEM) for the spherical rotating shallow water equations in vector invariant form. We prove that the DG-SEM is energy stable, and discretely conserves mass, vorticity, and linear geostrophic balance on general curvlinear meshes. These theoretical results are possible due to our novel entropy stable numerical DG fluxes for the shallow water equations in vector invariant form. We experimentally verify these results on a cubed sphere mesh. Additionally, we show that our method is robust, that is can be run stably without any dissipation. The entropy stable fluxes are sufficient to control the grid scale noise generated by geostrophic turbulence without the need for artificial stabilisation.

The rise of AI in human contexts places new demands on automated systems to be transparent and explainable. We examine some anthropomorphic ideas and principles relevant to such accountablity in order to develop a theoretical framework for thinking about digital systems in complex human contexts and the problem of explaining their behaviour. Structurally, systems are made of modular and hierachical components, which we abstract in a new system model using notions of modes and mode transitions. A mode is an independent component of the system with its own objectives, monitoring data, and algorithms. The behaviour of a mode, including its transitions to other modes, is determined by functions that interpret each mode's monitoring data in the light of its objectives and algorithms. We show how these belief functions can help explain system behaviour by visualising their evaluation as trajectories in higher-dimensional geometric spaces. These ideas are formalised mathematically by abstract and concrete simplicial complexes. We offer three techniques: a framework for design heuristics, a general system theory based on modes, and a geometric visualisation, and apply them in three types of human-centred systems.