Earthquake-induced secondary ground failure hazards, such as liquefaction and landslides, result in catastrophic building and infrastructure damage as well as human fatalities. To facilitate emergency responses and mitigate losses, the U.S. Geological Survey provides a rapid hazard estimation system for earthquake-triggered landslides and liquefaction using geospatial susceptibility proxies and ShakeMap ground motion estimates. In this study, we develop a generalized causal graph-based Bayesian network that models the physical interdependencies between geospatial features, seismic ground failures, and building damage, as well as DPMs. Geospatial features provide physical insights for estimating ground failure occurrence while DPMs contain event-specific surface change observations. This physics-informed causal graph incorporates these variables with complex physical relationships in one holistic Bayesian updating scheme to effectively fuse information from both geospatial models and remote sensing data. This framework is scalable and flexible enough to deal with highly complex multi-hazard combinations. We then develop a stochastic variational inference algorithm to jointly update the intractable posterior probabilities of unobserved landslides, liquefaction, and building damage at different locations efficiently. In addition, a local graphical model pruning algorithm is presented to reduce the computational cost of large-scale seismic ground failure estimation. We apply this framework to the September 2018 Hokkaido Iburi-Tobu, Japan (M6.6) earthquake and January 2020 Southwest Puerto Rico (M6.4) earthquake to evaluate the performance of our algorithm.
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The Transformer architecture has gained growing attention in graph representation learning recently, as it naturally overcomes several limitations of graph neural networks (GNNs) by avoiding their strict structural inductive biases and instead only encoding the graph structure via positional encoding. Here, we show that the node representations generated by the Transformer with positional encoding do not necessarily capture structural similarity between them. To address this issue, we propose the Structure-Aware Transformer, a class of simple and flexible graph Transformers built upon a new self-attention mechanism. This new self-attention incorporates structural information into the original self-attention by extracting a subgraph representation rooted at each node before computing the attention. We propose several methods for automatically generating the subgraph representation and show theoretically that the resulting representations are at least as expressive as the subgraph representations. Empirically, our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on five graph prediction benchmarks. Our structure-aware framework can leverage any existing GNN to extract the subgraph representation, and we show that it systematically improves performance relative to the base GNN model, successfully combining the advantages of GNNs and Transformers. Our code is available at //github.com/BorgwardtLab/SAT .
The goal of the Mars Sample Return campaign is to collect soil samples from the surface of Mars and return them to Earth for further study. The samples will be acquired and stored in metal tubes by the Perseverance rover and deposited on the Martian surface. As part of this campaign, it is expected the Sample Fetch Rover will be in charge of localizing and gathering up to 35 sample tubes over 150 Martian sols. Autonomous capabilities are critical for the success of the overall campaign and for the Sample Fetch Rover in particular. This work proposes a novel approach for the autonomous detection and pose estimation of the sample tubes. For the detection stage, a Deep Neural Network and transfer learning from a synthetic dataset are proposed. The dataset is created from photorealistic 3D simulations of Martian scenarios. Additionally, Computer Vision techniques are used to estimate the detected sample tubes poses. Finally, laboratory tests of the Sample Localization procedure are performed using the ExoMars Testing Rover on a Mars-like testbed. These tests validate the proposed approach in different hardware architectures, providing promising results related to the sample detection and pose estimation.
In the race towards carbon neutrality, the building sector has fallen behind and bears the potential to endanger the progress made across other industries. This is because buildings exhibit a life span of several decades which creates substantial inertia in the face of climate change. This inertia is further exacerbated by the scale of the existing building stock. With several billion operational buildings around the globe, working towards a carbon-neutral building sector requires solutions which enable stakeholders to accurately identify and retrofit subpar buildings at scale. However, improving the energy efficiency of the existing building stock through retrofits in a targeted and efficient way remains challenging. This is because, as of today, the energy efficiency of buildings is generally determined by on-site visits of certified energy auditors which makes the process slow, costly, and geographically incomplete. In order to accelerate the identification of promising retrofit targets, this work proposes a new method which can estimate a building's energy efficiency using purely remotely sensed data such as street view and aerial imagery, OSM-derived footprint areas, and satellite-borne land surface temperature (LST) measurements. We find that in the binary setting of distinguishing efficient from inefficient buildings, our end-to-end deep learning model achieves a macro-averaged F1-score of 62.06\%. As such, this work shows the potential and complementary nature of remotely sensed data in predicting building attributes such as energy efficiency and opens up new opportunities for future work to integrate additional data sources.
Analyzing time series in the frequency domain enables the development of powerful tools for investigating the second-order characteristics of multivariate stochastic processes. Parameters like the spectral density matrix and its inverse, the coherence or the partial coherence, encode comprehensively the complex linear relations between the component processes of the multivariate system. In this paper, we develop inference procedures for such parameters in a high-dimensional, time series setup. In particular, we first focus on the derivation of consistent estimators of the coherence and, more importantly, of the partial coherence which possess manageable limiting distributions that are suitable for testing purposes. Statistical tests of the hypothesis that the maximum over frequencies of the coherence, respectively, of the partial coherence, do not exceed a prespecified threshold value are developed. Our approach allows for testing hypotheses for individual coherences and/or partial coherences as well as for multiple testing of large sets of such parameters. In the latter case, a consistent procedure to control the false discovery rate is developed. The finite sample performance of the inference procedures proposed is investigated by means of simulations and applications to the construction of graphical interaction models for brain connectivity based on EEG data are presented.
Curb space is one of the busiest areas in urban road networks. Especially in recent years, the rapid increase of ride-hailing trips and commercial deliveries has induced massive pick-ups/drop-offs (PUDOs), which occupy the limited curb space that was designed and built decades ago. These PUDOs could jam curb utilization and disturb the mainline traffic flow, evidently leading to significant societal externalities. However, there is a lack of an analytical framework that rigorously quantifies and mitigates the congestion effect of PUDOs in the system view, particularly with little data support and involvement of confounding effects. In view of this, this paper develops a rigorous causal inference approach to estimate the congestion effect of PUDOs on general networks. A causal graph is set to represent the spatio-temporal relationship between PUDOs and traffic speed, and a double and separated machine learning (DSML) method is proposed to quantify how PUDOs affect traffic congestion. Additionally, a re-routing formulation is developed and solved to encourage passenger walking and traffic flow re-routing to achieve system optimal. Numerical experiments are conducted using real-world data in the Manhattan area. On average, 100 additional units of PUDOs in a region could reduce the traffic speed by 3.70 and 4.54 mph on weekdays and weekends, respectively. Re-routing trips with PUDOs on curbs could respectively reduce the system-wide total travel time by 2.44\% and 2.12\% in Midtown and Central Park on weekdays. Sensitivity analysis is also conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed framework.
Estimating the effects of continuous-valued interventions from observational data is a critically important task for climate science, healthcare, and economics. Recent work focuses on designing neural network architectures and regularization functions to allow for scalable estimation of average and individual-level dose-response curves from high-dimensional, large-sample data. Such methodologies assume ignorability (observation of all confounding variables) and positivity (observation of all treatment levels for every covariate value describing a set of units), assumptions problematic in the continuous treatment regime. Scalable sensitivity and uncertainty analyses to understand the ignorance induced in causal estimates when these assumptions are relaxed are less studied. Here, we develop a continuous treatment-effect marginal sensitivity model (CMSM) and derive bounds that agree with the observed data and a researcher-defined level of hidden confounding. We introduce a scalable algorithm and uncertainty-aware deep models to derive and estimate these bounds for high-dimensional, large-sample observational data. We work in concert with climate scientists interested in the climatological impacts of human emissions on cloud properties using satellite observations from the past 15 years. This problem is known to be complicated by many unobserved confounders.
An important characteristic of neural networks is their ability to learn representations of the input data with effective features for prediction, which is believed to be a key factor to their superior empirical performance. To better understand the source and benefit of feature learning in neural networks, we consider learning problems motivated by practical data, where the labels are determined by a set of class relevant patterns and the inputs are generated from these along with some background patterns. We prove that neural networks trained by gradient descent can succeed on these problems. The success relies on the emergence and improvement of effective features, which are learned among exponentially many candidates efficiently by exploiting the data (in particular, the structure of the input distribution). In contrast, no linear models on data-independent features of polynomial sizes can learn to as good errors. Furthermore, if the specific input structure is removed, then no polynomial algorithm in the Statistical Query model can learn even weakly. These results provide theoretical evidence showing that feature learning in neural networks depends strongly on the input structure and leads to the superior performance. Our preliminary experimental results on synthetic and real data also provide positive support.
Aggregating signals from a collection of noisy sources is a fundamental problem in many domains including crowd-sourcing, multi-agent planning, sensor networks, signal processing, voting, ensemble learning, and federated learning. The core question is how to aggregate signals from multiple sources (e.g. experts) in order to reveal an underlying ground truth. While a full answer depends on the type of signal, correlation of signals, and desired output, a problem common to all of these applications is that of differentiating sources based on their quality and weighting them accordingly. It is often assumed that this differentiation and aggregation is done by a single, accurate central mechanism or agent (e.g. judge). We complicate this model in two ways. First, we investigate the setting with both a single judge, and one with multiple judges. Second, given this multi-agent interaction of judges, we investigate various constraints on the judges' reporting space. We build on known results for the optimal weighting of experts and prove that an ensemble of sub-optimal mechanisms can perform optimally under certain conditions. We then show empirically that the ensemble approximates the performance of the optimal mechanism under a broader range of conditions.
A fundamental goal of scientific research is to learn about causal relationships. However, despite its critical role in the life and social sciences, causality has not had the same importance in Natural Language Processing (NLP), which has traditionally placed more emphasis on predictive tasks. This distinction is beginning to fade, with an emerging area of interdisciplinary research at the convergence of causal inference and language processing. Still, research on causality in NLP remains scattered across domains without unified definitions, benchmark datasets and clear articulations of the remaining challenges. In this survey, we consolidate research across academic areas and situate it in the broader NLP landscape. We introduce the statistical challenge of estimating causal effects, encompassing settings where text is used as an outcome, treatment, or as a means to address confounding. In addition, we explore potential uses of causal inference to improve the performance, robustness, fairness, and interpretability of NLP models. We thus provide a unified overview of causal inference for the computational linguistics community.
How can we estimate the importance of nodes in a knowledge graph (KG)? A KG is a multi-relational graph that has proven valuable for many tasks including question answering and semantic search. In this paper, we present GENI, a method for tackling the problem of estimating node importance in KGs, which enables several downstream applications such as item recommendation and resource allocation. While a number of approaches have been developed to address this problem for general graphs, they do not fully utilize information available in KGs, or lack flexibility needed to model complex relationship between entities and their importance. To address these limitations, we explore supervised machine learning algorithms. In particular, building upon recent advancement of graph neural networks (GNNs), we develop GENI, a GNN-based method designed to deal with distinctive challenges involved with predicting node importance in KGs. Our method performs an aggregation of importance scores instead of aggregating node embeddings via predicate-aware attention mechanism and flexible centrality adjustment. In our evaluation of GENI and existing methods on predicting node importance in real-world KGs with different characteristics, GENI achieves 5-17% higher NDCG@100 than the state of the art.
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