Gaussian Process based Bayesian Optimization is a well-known sample efficient sequential strategy for globally optimizing black-box, expensive, and multi-extremal functions. The role of the Gaussian Process is to provide a probabilistic approximation of the unknown function, depending on the sequentially collected observations, while an acquisition function drives the choice of the next solution to evaluate, balancing between exploration and exploitation, depending on the current Gaussian Process model. Despite the huge effort of the scientific community in defining effective exploration-exploitation mechanisms, we are still far away from the master acquisition function. This paper merges the most relevant results and insights from both algorithmic and human search strategies to propose a novel acquisition function, mastering the trade-off between explorative and exploitative choices, adaptively. We compare the proposed acquisition function on a number of test functions and against different state-of-the-art ones, which are instead based on prefixed or random scheduling between exploration and exploitation. A Pareto analysis is performed with respect to two (antagonistic) goals: convergence to the optimum and exploration capability. Results empirically prove that the proposed acquisition function is almost always Pareto optimal and also the most balanced trade-off between the two goals.
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Learning-based control uses data to design efficient controllers for specific systems. When multiple systems are involved, experience transfer usually focuses on data availability and controller performance yet neglects robustness to variations between systems. In contrast, this letter explores experience transfer from a robustness perspective. We leverage the transfer to design controllers that are robust not only to the uncertainty regarding an individual agent's model but also to the choice of agent in a fleet. Experience transfer enables the design of safe and robust controllers that work out of the box for all systems in a heterogeneous fleet. Our approach combines scenario optimization and recent formulations for direct data-driven control without the need to estimate a model of the system or determine uncertainty bounds for its parameters. We demonstrate the benefits of our data-driven robustification method through a numerical case study and obtain learned controllers that generalize well from a small number of open-loop trajectories in a quadcopter simulation.
Perception algorithms that provide estimates of their uncertainty are crucial to the development of autonomous robots that can operate in challenging and uncontrolled environments. Such perception algorithms provide the means for having risk-aware robots that reason about the probability of successfully completing a task when planning. There exist perception algorithms that come with models of their uncertainty; however, these models are often developed with assumptions, such as perfect data associations, that do not hold in the real world. Hence the resultant estimated uncertainty is a weak lower bound. To tackle this problem we present introspective perception - a novel approach for predicting accurate estimates of the uncertainty of perception algorithms deployed on mobile robots. By exploiting sensing redundancy and consistency constraints naturally present in the data collected by a mobile robot, introspective perception learns an empirical model of the error distribution of perception algorithms in the deployment environment and in an autonomously supervised manner. In this paper, we present the general theory of introspective perception and demonstrate successful implementations for two different perception tasks. We provide empirical results on challenging real-robot data for introspective stereo depth estimation and introspective visual simultaneous localization and mapping and show that they learn to predict their uncertainty with high accuracy and leverage this information to significantly reduce state estimation errors for an autonomous mobile robot.
Action and Trajectory Planning for Urban Autonomous Driving with Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning
Reinforcement Learning (RL) has made promising progress in planning and decision-making for Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) in simple driving scenarios. However, existing RL algorithms for AVs fail to learn critical driving skills in complex urban scenarios. First, urban driving scenarios require AVs to handle multiple driving tasks of which conventional RL algorithms are incapable. Second, the presence of other vehicles in urban scenarios results in a dynamically changing environment, which challenges RL algorithms to plan the action and trajectory of the AV. In this work, we propose an action and trajectory planner using Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning (atHRL) method, which models the agent behavior in a hierarchical model by using the perception of the lidar and birdeye view. The proposed atHRL method learns to make decisions about the agent's future trajectory and computes target waypoints under continuous settings based on a hierarchical DDPG algorithm. The waypoints planned by the atHRL model are then sent to a low-level controller to generate the steering and throttle commands required for the vehicle maneuver. We empirically verify the efficacy of atHRL through extensive experiments in complex urban driving scenarios that compose multiple tasks with the presence of other vehicles in the CARLA simulator. The experimental results suggest a significant performance improvement compared to the state-of-the-art RL methods.
We consider the problem of sequentially optimizing a time-varying objective function using time-varying Bayesian optimization (TVBO). Here, the key challenge is the exploration-exploitation trade-off under time variations. Current approaches to TVBO require prior knowledge of a constant rate of change. However, in practice, the rate of change is usually unknown. We propose an event-triggered algorithm, ET-GP-UCB, that treats the optimization problem as static until it detects changes in the objective function online and then resets the dataset. This allows the algorithm to adapt to realized temporal changes without the need for prior knowledge. The event-trigger is based on probabilistic uniform error bounds used in Gaussian process regression. We provide regret bounds for ET-GP-UCB and show in numerical experiments that it outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms on synthetic and real-world data. Furthermore, these results demonstrate that ET-GP-UCB is readily applicable to various settings without tuning hyperparameters.
In the autonomous driving system, trajectory prediction plays a vital role in ensuring safety and facilitating smooth navigation. However, we observe a substantial discrepancy between the accuracy of predictors on fixed datasets and their driving performance when used in downstream tasks. This discrepancy arises from two overlooked factors in the current evaluation protocols of trajectory prediction: 1) the dynamics gap between the dataset and real driving scenario; and 2) the computational efficiency of predictors. In real-world scenarios, prediction algorithms influence the behavior of autonomous vehicles, which, in turn, alter the behaviors of other agents on the road. This interaction results in predictor-specific dynamics that directly impact prediction results. As other agents' responses are predetermined on datasets, a significant dynamics gap arises between evaluations conducted on fixed datasets and actual driving scenarios. Furthermore, focusing solely on accuracy fails to address the demand for computational efficiency, which is critical for the real-time response required by the autonomous driving system. Therefore, in this paper, we demonstrate that an interactive, task-driven evaluation approach for trajectory prediction is crucial to reflect its efficacy for autonomous driving.
Under sparse extrinsic reward settings, reinforcement learning has remained challenging, despite surging interests in this field. Previous attempts suggest that intrinsic reward can alleviate the issue caused by sparsity. In this article, we present a novel intrinsic reward that is inspired by human learning, as humans evaluate curiosity by comparing current observations with historical knowledge. Our method involves training a self-supervised prediction model, saving snapshots of the model parameters, and using nuclear norm to evaluate the temporal inconsistency between the predictions of different snapshots as intrinsic rewards. We also propose a variational weighting mechanism to assign weight to different snapshots in an adaptive manner. Our experimental results on various benchmark environments demonstrate the efficacy of our method, which outperforms other intrinsic reward-based methods without additional training costs and with higher noise tolerance. This work has been submitted to the IEEE for possible publication. Copyright may be transferred without notice, after which this version may no longer be accessible.
We introduce DeepNash, an autonomous agent capable of learning to play the imperfect information game Stratego from scratch, up to a human expert level. Stratego is one of the few iconic board games that Artificial Intelligence (AI) has not yet mastered. This popular game has an enormous game tree on the order of $10^{535}$ nodes, i.e., $10^{175}$ times larger than that of Go. It has the additional complexity of requiring decision-making under imperfect information, similar to Texas hold'em poker, which has a significantly smaller game tree (on the order of $10^{164}$ nodes). Decisions in Stratego are made over a large number of discrete actions with no obvious link between action and outcome. Episodes are long, with often hundreds of moves before a player wins, and situations in Stratego can not easily be broken down into manageably-sized sub-problems as in poker. For these reasons, Stratego has been a grand challenge for the field of AI for decades, and existing AI methods barely reach an amateur level of play. DeepNash uses a game-theoretic, model-free deep reinforcement learning method, without search, that learns to master Stratego via self-play. The Regularised Nash Dynamics (R-NaD) algorithm, a key component of DeepNash, converges to an approximate Nash equilibrium, instead of 'cycling' around it, by directly modifying the underlying multi-agent learning dynamics. DeepNash beats existing state-of-the-art AI methods in Stratego and achieved a yearly (2022) and all-time top-3 rank on the Gravon games platform, competing with human expert players.
Meta reinforcement learning (meta-RL) extracts knowledge from previous tasks and achieves fast adaptation to new tasks. Despite recent progress, efficient exploration in meta-RL remains a key challenge in sparse-reward tasks, as it requires quickly finding informative task-relevant experiences in both meta-training and adaptation. To address this challenge, we explicitly model an exploration policy learning problem for meta-RL, which is separated from exploitation policy learning, and introduce a novel empowerment-driven exploration objective, which aims to maximize information gain for task identification. We derive a corresponding intrinsic reward and develop a new off-policy meta-RL framework, which efficiently learns separate context-aware exploration and exploitation policies by sharing the knowledge of task inference. Experimental evaluation shows that our meta-RL method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on various sparse-reward MuJoCo locomotion tasks and more complex sparse-reward Meta-World tasks.
Exploration-exploitation is a powerful and practical tool in multi-agent learning (MAL), however, its effects are far from understood. To make progress in this direction, we study a smooth analogue of Q-learning. We start by showing that our learning model has strong theoretical justification as an optimal model for studying exploration-exploitation. Specifically, we prove that smooth Q-learning has bounded regret in arbitrary games for a cost model that explicitly captures the balance between game and exploration costs and that it always converges to the set of quantal-response equilibria (QRE), the standard solution concept for games under bounded rationality, in weighted potential games with heterogeneous learning agents. In our main task, we then turn to measure the effect of exploration in collective system performance. We characterize the geometry of the QRE surface in low-dimensional MAL systems and link our findings with catastrophe (bifurcation) theory. In particular, as the exploration hyperparameter evolves over-time, the system undergoes phase transitions where the number and stability of equilibria can change radically given an infinitesimal change to the exploration parameter. Based on this, we provide a formal theoretical treatment of how tuning the exploration parameter can provably lead to equilibrium selection with both positive as well as negative (and potentially unbounded) effects to system performance.
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