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The decreasing cost and improved sensor and monitoring system technology (e.g. fiber optics and strain gauges) have led to more measurements in close proximity to each other. When using such spatially dense measurement data in Bayesian system identification strategies, the correlation in the model prediction error can become significant. The widely adopted assumption of uncorrelated Gaussian error may lead to inaccurate parameter estimation and overconfident predictions, which may lead to sub-optimal decisions. This paper addresses the challenges of performing Bayesian system identification for structures when large datasets are used, considering both spatial and temporal dependencies in the model uncertainty. We present an approach to efficiently evaluate the log-likelihood function, and we utilize nested sampling to compute the evidence for Bayesian model selection. The approach is first demonstrated on a synthetic case and then applied to a (measured) real-world steel bridge. The results show that the assumption of dependence in the model prediction uncertainties is decisively supported by the data. The proposed developments enable the use of large datasets and accounting for the dependency when performing Bayesian system identification, even when a relatively large number of uncertain parameters is inferred.

The development of new manufacturing techniques such as 3D printing have enabled the creation of previously infeasible chemical reactor designs. Systematically optimizing the highly parameterized geometries involved in these new classes of reactor is vital to ensure enhanced mixing characteristics and feasible manufacturability. Here we present a framework to rapidly solve this nonlinear, computationally expensive, and derivative-free problem, enabling the fast prototype of novel reactor parameterizations. We take advantage of Gaussian processes to adaptively learn a multi-fidelity model of reactor simulations across a number of different continuous mesh fidelities. The search space of reactor geometries is explored through an amalgam of different, potentially lower, fidelity simulations which are chosen for evaluation based on weighted acquisition function, trading off information gain with cost of simulation. Within our framework we derive a novel criteria for monitoring the progress and dictating the termination of multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization, ensuring a high fidelity solution is returned before experimental budget is exhausted. The class of reactor we investigate are helical-tube reactors under pulsed-flow conditions, which have demonstrated outstanding mixing characteristics, have the potential to be highly parameterized, and are easily manufactured using 3D printing. To validate our results, we 3D print and experimentally validate the optimal reactor geometry, confirming its mixing performance. In doing so we demonstrate our design framework to be extensible to a broad variety of expensive simulation-based optimization problems, supporting the design of the next generation of highly parameterized chemical reactors.

We propose a Bayesian approach to estimate finite population means for small areas. The proposed methodology improves on the traditional sample survey methods because, unlike the traditional methods, our proposed method borrows strength from multiple data sources. Our approach is fundamentally different from the existing small area Bayesian approach to the finite population sampling, which typically assumes a hierarchical model for all units of the finite population. We assume such model only for the units of the finite population in which the outcome variable is observed; because for these units, the assumed model can be checked using existing statistical tools. Modeling unobserved units of the finite population is challenging because the assumed model cannot be checked in the absence of data on the outcome variable. To make reasonable modeling assumptions, we propose to form several cells for each small area using factors that potentially influence the outcome variable of interest. This strategy is expected to bring some degree of homogeneity within a given cell and also among cells from different small areas that are constructed with the same factor level combination. Instead of modeling true probabilities for unobserved individual units, we assume that population means of cells with the same combination of factor levels are identical across small areas and the population mean of true probabilities for a cell is identical to the mean of true values for the observed units in that cell. We apply our proposed methodology to a real-life COVID-19 survey, linking information from multiple disparate data sources to estimate vaccine-hesitancy rates (proportions) for 50 US states and Washington, D.C. (small areas). We also provide practical ways of model selection that can be applied to a wider class of models under similar setting but for a diverse range of scientific problems.

We consider a cellular network, where the uplink transmissions to a base station (BS) are interferenced by other devices, a condition that may occur, e.g., in cell-free networks or when using non-orthogonal multiple access (NOMA) techniques. Assuming that the BS treats this interference as additional noise, we focus on the problem of estimating the interference correlation matrix from received signal samples. We consider a BS equipped with multiple antennas and operating in the millimeter-wave (mmWave) bands and propose techniques exploiting the fact that channels comprise only a few reflections at these frequencies. This yields a specific structure of the interference correlation matrix that can be decomposed into three matrices, two rectangular depending on the angle of arrival (AoA) of the interference and the third square with smaller dimensions. We resort to gridless approaches to estimate the AoAs and then project the least square estimate of the interference correlation matrix into a subspace with a smaller dimension, thus reducing the estimation error. Moreover, we derive two simplified estimators, still based on the gridless angle estimation that turns out to be convenient when estimating the interference over a larger number of samples.

Understanding the structure, quantity, and type of snow in mountain landscapes is crucial for assessing avalanche safety, interpreting satellite imagery, building accurate hydrology models, and choosing the right pair of skis for your weekend trip. Currently, such characteristics of snowpack are measured using a combination of remote satellite imagery, weather stations, and laborious point measurements and descriptions provided by local forecasters, guides, and backcountry users. Here, we explore how characteristics of the top layer of snowpack could be estimated while skiing using strain sensors mounted to the top surface of an alpine ski. We show that with two strain gauges and an inertial measurement unit it is feasible to correctly assign one of three qualitative labels (powder, slushy, or icy/groomed snow) to each 10 second segment of a trajectory with 97% accuracy, independent of skiing style. Our algorithm uses a combination of a data-driven linear model of the ski-snow interaction, dimensionality reduction, and a Naive Bayes classifier. Comparisons of classifier performance between strain gauges suggest that the optimal placement of strain gauges is halfway between the binding and the tip/tail of the ski, in the cambered section just before the point where the unweighted ski would touch the snow surface. The ability to classify snow, potentially in real-time, using skis opens the door to applications that range from citizen science efforts to map snow surface characteristics in the backcountry, and develop skis with automated stiffness tuning based on the snow type.

This research aims to explore various methods for assessing user feedback in mixed-initiative conversational search (CS) systems. While CS systems enjoy profuse advancements across multiple aspects, recent research fails to successfully incorporate feedback from the users. One of the main reasons for that is the lack of system-user conversational interaction data. To this end, we propose a user simulator-based framework for multi-turn interactions with a variety of mixed-initiative CS systems. Specifically, we develop a user simulator, dubbed ConvSim, that, once initialized with an information need description, is capable of providing feedback to a system's responses, as well as answering potential clarifying questions. Our experiments on a wide variety of state-of-the-art passage retrieval and neural re-ranking models show that effective utilization of user feedback can lead to 16% retrieval performance increase in terms of nDCG@3. Moreover, we observe consistent improvements as the number of feedback rounds increases (35% relative improvement in terms of nDCG@3 after three rounds). This points to a research gap in the development of specific feedback processing modules and opens a potential for significant advancements in CS. To support further research in the topic, we release over 30,000 transcripts of system-simulator interactions based on well-established CS datasets.

Autonomous Nano Aerial Vehicles have been increasingly popular in surveillance and monitoring operations due to their efficiency and maneuverability. Once a target location has been reached, drones do not have to remain active during the mission. It is possible for the vehicle to perch and stop its motors in such situations to conserve energy, as well as maintain a static position in unfavorable flying conditions. In the perching target estimation phase, the steady and accuracy of a visual camera with markers is a significant challenge. It is rapidly detectable from afar when using a large marker, but when the drone approaches, it quickly disappears as out of camera view. In this paper, a vision-based target poses estimation method using multiple markers is proposed to deal with the above-mentioned problems. First, a perching target with a small marker inside a larger one is designed to improve detection capability at wide and close ranges. Second, the relative poses of the flying vehicle are calculated from detected markers using a monocular camera. Next, a Kalman filter is applied to provide a more stable and reliable pose estimation, especially when the measurement data is missing due to unexpected reasons. Finally, we introduced an algorithm for merging the poses data from multi markers. The poses are then sent to the position controller to align the drone and the marker's center and steer it to perch on the target. The experimental results demonstrated the effectiveness and feasibility of the adopted approach. The drone can perch successfully onto the center of the markers with the attached 25mm-diameter rounded magnet.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have been successfully used in many problems involving graph-structured data, achieving state-of-the-art performance. GNNs typically employ a message-passing scheme, in which every node aggregates information from its neighbors using a permutation-invariant aggregation function. Standard well-examined choices such as the mean or sum aggregation functions have limited capabilities, as they are not able to capture interactions among neighbors. In this work, we formalize these interactions using an information-theoretic framework that notably includes synergistic information. Driven by this definition, we introduce the Graph Ordering Attention (GOAT) layer, a novel GNN component that captures interactions between nodes in a neighborhood. This is achieved by learning local node orderings via an attention mechanism and processing the ordered representations using a recurrent neural network aggregator. This design allows us to make use of a permutation-sensitive aggregator while maintaining the permutation-equivariance of the proposed GOAT layer. The GOAT model demonstrates its increased performance in modeling graph metrics that capture complex information, such as the betweenness centrality and the effective size of a node. In practical use-cases, its superior modeling capability is confirmed through its success in several real-world node classification benchmarks.

The prevalence of networked sensors and actuators in many real-world systems such as smart buildings, factories, power plants, and data centers generate substantial amounts of multivariate time series data for these systems. The rich sensor data can be continuously monitored for intrusion events through anomaly detection. However, conventional threshold-based anomaly detection methods are inadequate due to the dynamic complexities of these systems, while supervised machine learning methods are unable to exploit the large amounts of data due to the lack of labeled data. On the other hand, current unsupervised machine learning approaches have not fully exploited the spatial-temporal correlation and other dependencies amongst the multiple variables (sensors/actuators) in the system for detecting anomalies. In this work, we propose an unsupervised multivariate anomaly detection method based on Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). Instead of treating each data stream independently, our proposed MAD-GAN framework considers the entire variable set concurrently to capture the latent interactions amongst the variables. We also fully exploit both the generator and discriminator produced by the GAN, using a novel anomaly score called DR-score to detect anomalies by discrimination and reconstruction. We have tested our proposed MAD-GAN using two recent datasets collected from real-world CPS: the Secure Water Treatment (SWaT) and the Water Distribution (WADI) datasets. Our experimental results showed that the proposed MAD-GAN is effective in reporting anomalies caused by various cyber-intrusions compared in these complex real-world systems.

Multivariate time series forecasting is extensively studied throughout the years with ubiquitous applications in areas such as finance, traffic, environment, etc. Still, concerns have been raised on traditional methods for incapable of modeling complex patterns or dependencies lying in real word data. To address such concerns, various deep learning models, mainly Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based methods, are proposed. Nevertheless, capturing extremely long-term patterns while effectively incorporating information from other variables remains a challenge for time-series forecasting. Furthermore, lack-of-explainability remains one serious drawback for deep neural network models. Inspired by Memory Network proposed for solving the question-answering task, we propose a deep learning based model named Memory Time-series network (MTNet) for time series forecasting. MTNet consists of a large memory component, three separate encoders, and an autoregressive component to train jointly. Additionally, the attention mechanism designed enable MTNet to be highly interpretable. We can easily tell which part of the historic data is referenced the most.