The coefficient of variation is a useful indicator for comparing the spread of values between dataset with different units or widely different means. In this paper we address the problem of investigating the equality of the coefficients of variation from two independent populations. In order to do this we rely on the Bayesian Discrepancy Measure recently introduced in the literature. Computing this Bayesian measure of evidence is straightforward when the coefficient of variation is a function of a single parameter of the distribution. In contrast, it becomes difficult when it is a function of more parameters, often requiring the use of MCMC methods. We calculate the Bayesian Discrepancy Measure by considering a variety of distributions whose coefficients of variation depend on more than one parameter. We consider also applications to real data. As far as we know, some of the examined problems have not yet been covered in the literature.
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Blind video quality assessment (BVQA) plays an indispensable role in monitoring and improving the end-users' viewing experience in various real-world video-enabled media applications. As an experimental field, the improvements of BVQA models have been measured primarily on a few human-rated VQA datasets. Thus, it is crucial to gain a better understanding of existing VQA datasets in order to properly evaluate the current progress in BVQA. Towards this goal, we conduct a first-of-its-kind computational analysis of VQA datasets via designing minimalistic BVQA models. By minimalistic, we restrict our family of BVQA models to build only upon basic blocks: a video preprocessor (for aggressive spatiotemporal downsampling), a spatial quality analyzer, an optional temporal quality analyzer, and a quality regressor, all with the simplest possible instantiations. By comparing the quality prediction performance of different model variants on eight VQA datasets with realistic distortions, we find that nearly all datasets suffer from the easy dataset problem of varying severity, some of which even admit blind image quality assessment (BIQA) solutions. We additionally justify our claims by contrasting our model generalizability on these VQA datasets, and by ablating a dizzying set of BVQA design choices related to the basic building blocks. Our results cast doubt on the current progress in BVQA, and meanwhile shed light on good practices of constructing next-generation VQA datasets and models.
Machine learning models often need to be robust to noisy input data. The effect of real-world noise (which is often random) on model predictions is captured by a model's local robustness, i.e., the consistency of model predictions in a local region around an input. However, the na\"ive approach to computing local robustness based on Monte-Carlo sampling is statistically inefficient, leading to prohibitive computational costs for large-scale applications. In this work, we develop the first analytical estimators to efficiently compute local robustness of multi-class discriminative models using local linear function approximation and the multivariate Normal CDF. Through the derivation of these estimators, we show how local robustness is connected to concepts such as randomized smoothing and softmax probability. We also confirm empirically that these estimators accurately and efficiently compute the local robustness of standard deep learning models. In addition, we demonstrate these estimators' usefulness for various tasks involving local robustness, such as measuring robustness bias and identifying examples that are vulnerable to noise perturbation in a dataset. By developing these analytical estimators, this work not only advances conceptual understanding of local robustness, but also makes its computation practical, enabling the use of local robustness in critical downstream applications.
In May 2022, an apparent speculative attack, followed by market panic, led to the precipitous downfall of UST, one of the most popular stablecoins at that time. However, UST is not the only stablecoin to have been depegged in the past. Designing resilient and long-term stable coins, therefore, appears to present a hard challenge. To further scrutinize existing stablecoin designs and ultimately lead to more robust systems, we need to understand where volatility emerges. Our work provides a game-theoretical model aiming to help identify why stablecoins suffer from a depeg. This game-theoretical model reveals that stablecoins have different price equilibria depending on the coin's architecture and mechanism to minimize volatility. Moreover, our theory is supported by extensive empirical data, spanning $1$ year. To that end, we collect daily prices for 22 stablecoins and on-chain data from five blockchains including the Ethereum and the Terra blockchain.
We study the fundamental problem of fairly allocating a set of indivisible goods among $n$ agents with additive valuations using the desirable fairness notion of maximin share (MMS). MMS is the most popular share-based notion, in which an agent finds an allocation fair to her if she receives goods worth at least her MMS value. An allocation is called MMS if all agents receive at least their MMS value. Since MMS allocations need not exist when $n>2$, a series of works showed the existence of approximate MMS allocations with the current best factor of $\frac34 + O(\frac{1}{n})$. However, a simple example in [DFL82, BEF21, AGST23] showed the limitations of existing approaches and proved that they cannot improve this factor to $3/4 + \Omega(1)$. In this paper, we bypass these barriers to show the existence of $(\frac{3}{4} + \frac{3}{3836})$-MMS allocations by developing new reduction rules and analysis techniques.
A theoretical expression is derived for the mean squared error of a nonparametric estimator of the tail dependence coefficient, depending on a threshold that defines which rank delimits the tails of a distribution. We propose a new method to optimally select this threshold. It combines the theoretical mean squared error of the estimator with a parametric estimation of the copula linking observations in the tails. Using simulations, we compare this semiparametric method with other approaches proposed in the literature, including the plateau-finding algorithm.
The Independent Cutset problem asks whether there is a set of vertices in a given graph that is both independent and a cutset. Such a problem is $\textsf{NP}$-complete even when the input graph is planar and has maximum degree five. In this paper, we first present a $\mathcal{O}^*(1.4423^{n})$-time algorithm for the problem. We also show how to compute a minimum independent cutset (if any) in the same running time. Since the property of having an independent cutset is MSO$_1$-expressible, our main results are concerned with structural parameterizations for the problem considering parameters that are not bounded by a function of the clique-width of the input. We present $\textsf{FPT}$-time algorithms for the problem considering the following parameters: the dual of the maximum degree, the dual of the solution size, the size of a dominating set (where a dominating set is given as an additional input), the size of an odd cycle transversal, the distance to chordal graphs, and the distance to $P_5$-free graphs. We close by introducing the notion of $\alpha$-domination, which allows us to identify more fixed-parameter tractable and polynomial-time solvable cases.
Modern mainstream financial theory is underpinned by the efficient market hypothesis, which posits the rapid incorporation of relevant information into asset pricing. Limited prior studies in the operational research literature have investigated tests designed for random number generators to check for these informational efficiencies. Treating binary daily returns as a hardware random number generator analogue, tests of overlapping permutations have indicated that these time series feature idiosyncratic recurrent patterns. Contrary to prior studies, we split our analysis into two streams at the annual and company level, and investigate longer-term efficiency over a larger time frame for Nasdaq-listed public companies to diminish the effects of trading noise and allow the market to realistically digest new information. Our results demonstrate that information efficiency varies across years and reflects large-scale market impacts such as financial crises. We also show the proximity to results of a well-tested pseudo-random number generator, discuss the distinction between theoretical and practical market efficiency, and find that the statistical qualification of stock-separated returns in support of the efficient market hypothesis is dependent on the driving factor of small inefficient subsets that skew market assessments.
In observational studies, unobserved confounding is a major barrier in isolating the average causal effect (ACE). In these scenarios, two main approaches are often used: confounder adjustment for causality (CAC) and instrumental variable analysis for causation (IVAC). Nevertheless, both are subject to untestable assumptions and, therefore, it may be unclear which assumption violation scenarios one method is superior in terms of mitigating inconsistency for the ACE. Although general guidelines exist, direct theoretical comparisons of the trade-offs between CAC and the IVAC assumptions are limited. Using ordinary least squares (OLS) for CAC and two-stage least squares (2SLS) for IVAC, we analytically compare the relative inconsistency for the ACE of each approach under a variety of assumption violation scenarios and discuss rules of thumb for practice. Additionally, a sensitivity framework is proposed to guide analysts in determining which approach may result in less inconsistency for estimating the ACE with a given dataset. We demonstrate our findings both through simulation and an application examining whether maternal stress during pregnancy affects a neonate's birthweight. The implications of our findings for causal inference practice are discussed, providing guidance for analysts for judging whether CAC or IVAC may be more appropriate for a given situation.
Many food products involve mixtures of ingredients, where the mixtures can be expressed as combinations of ingredient proportions. In many cases, the quality and the consumer preference may also depend on the way in which the mixtures are processed. The processing is generally defined by the settings of one or more process variables. Experimental designs studying the joint impact of the mixture ingredient proportions and the settings of the process variables are called mixture-process variable experiments. In this article, we show how to combine mixture-process variable experiments and discrete choice experiments, to quantify and model consumer preferences for food products that can be viewed as processed mixtures. First, we describe the modeling of data from such combined experiments. Next, we describe how to generate D- and I-optimal designs for choice experiments involving mixtures and process variables, and we compare the two kinds of designs using two examples.
Since hardware resources are limited, the objective of training deep learning models is typically to maximize accuracy subject to the time and memory constraints of training and inference. We study the impact of model size in this setting, focusing on Transformer models for NLP tasks that are limited by compute: self-supervised pretraining and high-resource machine translation. We first show that even though smaller Transformer models execute faster per iteration, wider and deeper models converge in significantly fewer steps. Moreover, this acceleration in convergence typically outpaces the additional computational overhead of using larger models. Therefore, the most compute-efficient training strategy is to counterintuitively train extremely large models but stop after a small number of iterations. This leads to an apparent trade-off between the training efficiency of large Transformer models and the inference efficiency of small Transformer models. However, we show that large models are more robust to compression techniques such as quantization and pruning than small models. Consequently, one can get the best of both worlds: heavily compressed, large models achieve higher accuracy than lightly compressed, small models.
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