In the United States, regions are frequently divided into districts for the purpose of electing representatives. How the districts are drawn can affect who's elected, and drawing districts to give an advantage to a certain group is known as gerrymandering. It can be surprisingly difficult to detect gerrymandering, but one algorithmic method is to compare a current districting plan to a large number of randomly sampled plans to see whether it is an outlier. Recombination Markov chains are often used for this random sampling: randomly choose two districts, consider their union, and split this union in a new way. This works well in practice, but the theory behind it remains underdeveloped. For example, it's not known if recombination Markov chains are irreducible, that is, if recombination moves suffice to move from any districting plan to any other. Irreducibility of recombination Markov chains can be formulated as a graph problem: for a graph $G$, is the space of all partitions of $G$ into $k$ connected subgraphs ($k$ districts) connected by recombination moves? We consider three simply connected districts and district sizes $k_1\pm 1$ vertices, $k_2\pm 1$ vertices, and $k3\pm 1$ vertices. We prove for arbitrarily large triangular regions in the triangular lattice, recombination Markov chains are irreducible. This is the first proof of irreducibility under tight district size constraints for recombination Markov chains beyond small or trivial examples.
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We investigate trade-offs in static and dynamic evaluation of hierarchical queries with arbitrary free variables. In the static setting, the trade-off is between the time to partially compute the query result and the delay needed to enumerate its tuples. In the dynamic setting, we additionally consider the time needed to update the query result under single-tuple inserts or deletes to the database. Our approach observes the degree of values in the database and uses different computation and maintenance strategies for high-degree (heavy) and low-degree (light) values. For the latter it partially computes the result, while for the former it computes enough information to allow for on-the-fly enumeration. We define the preprocessing time, the update time, and the enumeration delay as functions of the light/heavy threshold. By appropriately choosing this threshold, our approach recovers a number of prior results when restricted to hierarchical queries. We show that for a restricted class of hierarchical queries, our approach achieves worst-case optimal update time and enumeration delay conditioned on the Online Matrix-Vector Multiplication Conjecture.
We develop domain theory in constructive and predicative univalent foundations (also known as homotopy type theory). That we work predicatively means that we do not assume Voevodsky's propositional resizing axioms. Our work is constructive in the sense that we do not rely on excluded middle or the axiom of (countable) choice. Domain theory studies so-called directed complete posets (dcpos) and Scott continuous maps between them and has applications in programming language semantics, higher-type computability and topology. A common approach to deal with size issues in a predicative foundation is to work with information systems, abstract bases or formal topologies rather than dcpos, and approximable relations rather than Scott continuous functions. In our type-theoretic approach, we instead accept that dcpos may be large and work with type universes to account for this. A priori one might expect that complex constructions of dcpos result in a need for ever-increasing universes and are predicatively impossible. We show that such constructions can be carried out in a predicative setting. We illustrate the development with applications in the semantics of programming languages: the soundness and computational adequacy of the Scott model of PCF and Scott's $D_\infty$ model of the untyped $\lambda$-calculus. We also give a predicative account of continuous and algebraic dcpos, and of the related notions of a small basis and its rounded ideal completion. The fact that nontrivial dcpos have large carriers is in fact unavoidable and characteristic of our predicative setting, as we explain in a complementary chapter on the constructive and predicative limitations of univalent foundations. Our account of domain theory in univalent foundations is fully formalised with only a few minor exceptions. The ability of the proof assistant Agda to infer universe levels has been invaluable for our purposes.
We consider the problem of sharing a set of indivisible goods among agents in a fair manner, namely such that the allocation is envy-free up to any good (EFX). We focus on the problem of computing an EFX allocation in the two-agent case and characterize the computational complexity of the problem for most well-known valuation classes. We present a simple greedy algorithm that solves the problem when the agent valuations are weakly well-layered, a class which contains gross substitutes and budget-additive valuations. For the next largest valuation class we prove a negative result: the problem is PLS-complete for submodular valuations. All of our results also hold for the setting where there are many agents with identical valuations.
Results from Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) establish the comparative effectiveness of interventions, and are in turn critical inputs for evidence-based care. However, results from RCTs are presented in (often unstructured) natural language articles describing the design, execution, and outcomes of trials; clinicians must manually extract findings pertaining to interventions and outcomes of interest from such articles. This onerous manual process has motivated work on (semi-)automating extraction of structured evidence from trial reports. In this work we propose and evaluate a text-to-text model built on instruction-tuned Large Language Models (LLMs) to jointly extract Interventions, Outcomes, and Comparators (ICO elements) from clinical abstracts, and infer the associated results reported. Manual (expert) and automated evaluations indicate that framing evidence extraction as a conditional generation task and fine-tuning LLMs for this purpose realizes considerable ($\sim$20 point absolute F1 score) gains over the previous SOTA. We perform ablations and error analyses to assess aspects that contribute to model performance, and to highlight potential directions for further improvements. We apply our model to a collection of published RCTs through mid-2022, and release a searchable database of structured findings: bit.ly/joint-relations-extraction-mlhc
We consider a dynamic Bayesian persuasion setting where a single long-lived sender persuades a stream of ``short-lived'' agents (receivers) by sharing information about a payoff-relevant state. The state transitions are Markovian and the sender seeks to maximize the long-run average reward by committing to a (possibly history-dependent) signaling mechanism. While most previous studies of Markov persuasion consider exogenous agent beliefs that are independent of the chain, we study a more natural variant with endogenous agent beliefs that depend on the chain's realized history. A key challenge to analyze such settings is to model the agents' partial knowledge about the history information. We analyze a Markov persuasion process (MPP) under various information models that differ in the amount of information the receivers have about the history of the process. Specifically, we formulate a general partial-information model where each receiver observes the history with an $\ell$ period lag. Our technical contribution start with analyzing two benchmark models, i.e., the full-history information model and the no-history information model. We establish an ordering of the sender's payoff as a function of the informativeness of agent's information model (with no-history as the least informative), and develop efficient algorithms to compute optimal solutions for these two benchmarks. For general $\ell$, we present the technical challenges in finding an optimal signaling mechanism, where even determining the right dependency on the history becomes difficult. To bypass the difficulties, we use a robustness framework to design a "simple" \emph{history-independent} signaling mechanism that approximately achieves optimal payoff when $\ell$ is reasonably large.
Supply chain operations traditionally involve a variety of complex decision making problems. Over the last few decades, supply chains greatly benefited from advances in computation, which allowed the transition from manual processing to automation and cost-effective optimization. Nonetheless, business operators still need to spend substantial efforts in explaining and interpreting the optimization outcomes to stakeholders. Motivated by the recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs), we study how this disruptive technology can help bridge the gap between supply chain automation and human comprehension and trust thereof. We design OptiGuide -- a framework that accepts as input queries in plain text, and outputs insights about the underlying optimization outcomes. Our framework does not forgo the state-of-the-art combinatorial optimization technology, but rather leverages it to quantitatively answer what-if scenarios (e.g., how would the cost change if we used supplier B instead of supplier A for a given demand?). Importantly, our design does not require sending proprietary data over to LLMs, which can be a privacy concern in some circumstances. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework on a real server placement scenario within Microsoft's cloud supply chain. Along the way, we develop a general evaluation benchmark, which can be used to evaluate the accuracy of the LLM output in other scenarios.
We derive an extension of the sequential homotopy method that allows for the application of inexact Krylov methods for the linear (double) saddle-point systems arising in the local semismooth Newton method for the homotopy subproblems. For the class of problems that exhibit (after suitable partitioning of the variables) a zero in the off-diagonal blocks of the Hessian of the Lagrangian, we propose and analyze an efficient, parallelizable, symmetric positive definite preconditioner based on a double Schur complement approach. For discretized optimal control problems with PDE constraints, this structure is often present with the canonical partitioning of the variables in states and controls. We conclude with numerical results for a badly conditioned and highly nonlinear benchmark optimization problem with elliptic partial differential equations and control bounds. The resulting method is faster than using direct linear algebra for the 2D benchmark and allows for the parallel solution of large 3D problems.
We define a $q$-linear path in a hypergraph $H$ as a sequence $(e_1,\ldots,e_L)$ of edges of $H$ such that $|e_i \cap e_{i+1}| \in [\![1,q]\!]$ and $e_i \cap e_j=\varnothing$ if $|i-j|>1$. In this paper, we study the connected components associated to these paths when $q=k-2$ where $k$ is the rank of $H$. If $k=3$ then $q=1$ which coincides with the well-known notion of linear path or loose path. We describe the structure of the connected components, using an algorithmic proof which shows that the connected components can be computed in polynomial time. We then mention two consequences of our algorithmic result. The first one is that deciding the winner of the Maker-Breaker game on a hypergraph of rank 3 can be done in polynomial time. The second one is that tractable cases for the NP-complete problem of "Paths Avoiding Forbidden Pairs" in a graph can be deduced from the recognition of a special type of line graph of a hypergraph.
In Statistical Relational Artificial Intelligence, a branch of AI and machine learning which combines the logical and statistical schools of AI, one uses the concept {\em para\-metrized probabilistic graphical model (PPGM)} to model (conditional) dependencies between random variables and to make probabilistic inferences about events on a space of "possible worlds". The set of possible worlds with underlying domain $D$ (a set of objects) can be represented by the set $\mathbf{W}_D$ of all first-order structures (for a suitable signature) with domain $D$. Using a formal logic we can describe events on $\mathbf{W}_D$. By combining a logic and a PPGM we can also define a probability distribution $\mathbb{P}_D$ on $\mathbf{W}_D$ and use it to compute the probability of an event. We consider a logic, denoted $PLA$, with truth values in the unit interval, which uses aggregation functions, such as arithmetic mean, geometric mean, maximum and minimum instead of quantifiers. However we face the problem of computational efficiency and this problem is an obstacle to the wider use of methods from Statistical Relational AI in practical applications. We address this problem by proving that the described probability will, under certain assumptions on the PPGM and the sentence $\varphi$, converge as the size of $D$ tends to infinity. The convergence result is obtained by showing that every formula $\varphi(x_1, \ldots, x_k)$ which contains only "admissible" aggregation functions (e.g. arithmetic and geometric mean, max and min) is asymptotically equivalent to a formula $\psi(x_1, \ldots, x_k)$ without aggregation functions.
We introduce DeepNash, an autonomous agent capable of learning to play the imperfect information game Stratego from scratch, up to a human expert level. Stratego is one of the few iconic board games that Artificial Intelligence (AI) has not yet mastered. This popular game has an enormous game tree on the order of $10^{535}$ nodes, i.e., $10^{175}$ times larger than that of Go. It has the additional complexity of requiring decision-making under imperfect information, similar to Texas hold'em poker, which has a significantly smaller game tree (on the order of $10^{164}$ nodes). Decisions in Stratego are made over a large number of discrete actions with no obvious link between action and outcome. Episodes are long, with often hundreds of moves before a player wins, and situations in Stratego can not easily be broken down into manageably-sized sub-problems as in poker. For these reasons, Stratego has been a grand challenge for the field of AI for decades, and existing AI methods barely reach an amateur level of play. DeepNash uses a game-theoretic, model-free deep reinforcement learning method, without search, that learns to master Stratego via self-play. The Regularised Nash Dynamics (R-NaD) algorithm, a key component of DeepNash, converges to an approximate Nash equilibrium, instead of 'cycling' around it, by directly modifying the underlying multi-agent learning dynamics. DeepNash beats existing state-of-the-art AI methods in Stratego and achieved a yearly (2022) and all-time top-3 rank on the Gravon games platform, competing with human expert players.
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