We propose FNETS, a methodology for network estimation and forecasting of high-dimensional time series exhibiting strong serial- and cross-sectional correlations. We operate under a factor-adjusted vector autoregressive (VAR) model which, after accounting for pervasive co-movements of the variables by {\it common} factors, models the remaining {\it idiosyncratic} dynamic dependence between the variables as a sparse VAR process. Network estimation of FNETS consists of three steps: (i) factor-adjustment via dynamic principal component analysis, (ii) estimation of the latent VAR process via $\ell_1$-regularised Yule-Walker estimator, and (iii) estimation of partial correlation and long-run partial correlation matrices. In doing so, we learn three networks underpinning the VAR process, namely a directed network representing the Granger causal linkages between the variables, an undirected one embedding their contemporaneous relationships and finally, an undirected network that summarises both lead-lag and contemporaneous linkages. In addition, FNETS provides a suite of methods for forecasting the factor-driven and the idiosyncratic VAR processes. Under general conditions permitting tails heavier than the Gaussian one, we derive uniform consistency rates for the estimators in both network estimation and forecasting, which hold as the dimension of the panel and the sample size diverge. Simulation studies and real data application confirm the good performance of FNETS.
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Nonlinear behavior in the hopping transport of interacting charges enables reconfigurable logic in disordered dopant network devices, where voltages applied at control electrodes tune the relation between voltages applied at input electrodes and the current measured at an output electrode. From kinetic Monte Carlo simulations we analyze the critical nonlinear aspects of variable-range hopping transport for realizing Boolean logic gates in these devices on three levels. First, we quantify the occurrence of individual gates for random choices of control voltages. We find that linearly inseparable gates such as the XOR gate are less likely to occur than linearly separable gates such as the AND gate, despite the fact that the number of different regions in the multidimensional control voltage space for which AND or XOR gates occur is comparable. Second, we use principal component analysis to characterize the distribution of the output current vectors for the (00,10,01,11) logic input combinations in terms of eigenvectors and eigenvalues of the output covariance matrix. This allows a simple and direct comparison of the behavior of different simulated devices and a comparison to experimental devices. Third, we quantify the nonlinearity in the distribution of the output current vectors necessary for realizing Boolean functionality by introducing three nonlinearity indicators. The analysis provides a physical interpretation of the effects of changing the hopping distance and temperature and is used in a comparison with data generated by a deep neural network trained on a physical device.
Fast and accurate predictions for complex physical dynamics are a significant challenge across various applications. Real-time prediction on resource-constrained hardware is even more crucial in real-world problems. The deep operator network (DeepONet) has recently been proposed as a framework for learning nonlinear mappings between function spaces. However, the DeepONet requires many parameters and has a high computational cost when learning operators, particularly those with complex (discontinuous or non-smooth) target functions. This study proposes HyperDeepONet, which uses the expressive power of the hypernetwork to enable the learning of a complex operator with a smaller set of parameters. The DeepONet and its variant models can be thought of as a method of injecting the input function information into the target function. From this perspective, these models can be viewed as a particular case of HyperDeepONet. We analyze the complexity of DeepONet and conclude that HyperDeepONet needs relatively lower complexity to obtain the desired accuracy for operator learning. HyperDeepONet successfully learned various operators with fewer computational resources compared to other benchmarks.
We consider the problem of synchronizing a multi-agent system (MAS) composed of several identical linear systems connected through a directed graph.To design a suitable controller, we construct conditions based on Bilinear Matrix Inequalities (BMIs) that ensure state synchronization.Since these conditions are non-convex, we propose an iterative algorithm based on a suitable relaxation that allows us to formulate Linear Matrix Inequality (LMI) conditions.As a result, the algorithm yields a common static state-feedback matrix for the controller that satisfies general linear performance constraints.Our results are achieved under the mild assumption that the graph is time-invariant and connected.
The growth of network-connected devices has led to an exponential increase in data generation, creating significant challenges for efficient data analysis. This data is generated continuously, creating a dynamic flow known as a data stream. The characteristics of a data stream may change dynamically, and this change is known as concept drift. Consequently, a method for handling data streams must efficiently reduce their volume while dynamically adapting to these changing characteristics. This paper proposes a simple online vector quantization method for concept drift. The proposed method identifies and replaces units with low win probability through remove-birth updating, thus achieving a rapid adaptation to concept drift. Furthermore, the results of this study show that the proposed method can generate minimal dead units even in the presence of concept drift. This study also suggests that some metrics calculated from the proposed method will be helpful for drift detection.
Computational methods for thermal radiative transfer problems exhibit high computational costs and a prohibitive memory footprint when the spatial and directional domains are finely resolved. A strategy to reduce such computational costs is dynamical low-rank approximation (DLRA), which represents and evolves the solution on a low-rank manifold, thereby significantly decreasing computational and memory requirements. Efficient discretizations for the DLRA evolution equations need to be carefully constructed to guarantee stability while enabling mass conservation. In this work, we focus on the Su-Olson closure leading to a linearized internal energy model and derive a stable discretization through an implicit coupling of internal energy and particle density. Moreover, we propose a rank-adaptive strategy to preserve local mass conservation. Numerical results are presented which showcase the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed low-rank method compared to the solution of the full system.
Scientific claims gain credibility by replicability, especially if replication under different circumstances and varying designs yields equivalent results. Aggregating results over multiple studies is, however, not straightforward, and when the heterogeneity between studies increases, conventional methods such as (Bayesian) meta-analysis and Bayesian sequential updating become infeasible. *Bayesian Evidence Synthesis*, built upon the foundations of the Bayes factor, allows to aggregate support for conceptually similar hypotheses over studies, regardless of methodological differences. We assess the performance of Bayesian Evidence Synthesis over multiple effect and sample sizes, with a broad set of (inequality-constrained) hypotheses using Monte Carlo simulations, focusing explicitly on the complexity of the hypotheses under consideration. The simulations show that this method can evaluate complex (informative) hypotheses regardless of methodological differences between studies, and performs adequately if the set of studies considered has sufficient statistical power. Additionally, we pinpoint challenging conditions that can lead to unsatisfactory results, and provide suggestions on handling these situations. Ultimately, we show that Bayesian Evidence Synthesis is a promising tool that can be used when traditional research synthesis methods are not applicable due to insurmountable between-study heterogeneity.
Forecast reconciliation is the post-forecasting process aimed to revise a set of incoherent base forecasts into coherent forecasts in line with given data structures. Most of the point and probabilistic regression-based forecast reconciliation results ground on the so called "structural representation" and on the related unconstrained generalized least squares reconciliation formula. However, the structural representation naturally applies to genuine hierarchical/grouped time series, where the top- and bottom-level variables are uniquely identified. When a general linearly constrained multiple time series is considered, the forecast reconciliation is naturally expressed according to a projection approach. While it is well known that the classic structural reconciliation formula is equivalent to its projection approach counterpart, so far it is not completely understood if and how a structural-like reconciliation formula may be derived for a general linearly constrained multiple time series. Such an expression would permit to extend reconciliation definitions, theorems and results in a straightforward manner. In this paper, we show that for general linearly constrained multiple time series it is possible to express the reconciliation formula according to a "structural-like" approach that keeps distinct free and constrained, instead of bottom and upper (aggregated), variables, establish the probabilistic forecast reconciliation framework, and apply these findings to obtain fully reconciled point and probabilistic forecasts for the aggregates of the Australian GDP from income and expenditure sides, and for the European Area GDP disaggregated by income, expenditure and output sides and by 19 countries.
This work studies nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the intensity function of an inhomogeneous Poisson point process in the important case where the intensity depends on covariates, based on the observation of a single realisation of the point pattern over a large area. It is shown how the presence of covariates allows to borrow information from far away locations in the observation window, enabling consistent inference in the growing domain asymptotics. In particular, optimal posterior contraction rates under both global and point-wise loss functions are derived. The rates in global loss are obtained under conditions on the prior distribution resembling those in the well established theory of Bayesian nonparametrics, here combined with concentration inequalities for functionals of stationary processes to control certain random covariate-dependent loss functions appearing in the analysis. The local rates are derived with an ad-hoc study that builds on recent advances in the theory of P\'olya tree priors, extended to the present multivariate setting with a novel construction that makes use of the random geometry induced by the covariates.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) often fail silently with over-confident predictions on out-of-distribution (OOD) samples, posing risks in real-world deployments. Existing techniques predominantly emphasize either the feature representation space or the gradient norms computed with respect to DNN parameters, yet they overlook the intricate gradient distribution and the topology of classification regions. To address this gap, we introduce GRadient-aware Out-Of-Distribution detection in interpolated manifolds (GROOD), a novel framework that relies on the discriminative power of gradient space to distinguish between in-distribution (ID) and OOD samples. To build this space, GROOD relies on class prototypes together with a prototype that specifically captures OOD characteristics. Uniquely, our approach incorporates a targeted mix-up operation at an early intermediate layer of the DNN to refine the separation of gradient spaces between ID and OOD samples. We quantify OOD detection efficacy using the distance to the nearest neighbor gradients derived from the training set, yielding a robust OOD score. Experimental evaluations substantiate that the introduction of targeted input mix-upamplifies the separation between ID and OOD in the gradient space, yielding impressive results across diverse datasets. Notably, when benchmarked against ImageNet-1k, GROOD surpasses the established robustness of state-of-the-art baselines. Through this work, we establish the utility of leveraging gradient spaces and class prototypes for enhanced OOD detection for DNN in image classification.
Time Series Classification (TSC) is an important and challenging problem in data mining. With the increase of time series data availability, hundreds of TSC algorithms have been proposed. Among these methods, only a few have considered Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) to perform this task. This is surprising as deep learning has seen very successful applications in the last years. DNNs have indeed revolutionized the field of computer vision especially with the advent of novel deeper architectures such as Residual and Convolutional Neural Networks. Apart from images, sequential data such as text and audio can also be processed with DNNs to reach state-of-the-art performance for document classification and speech recognition. In this article, we study the current state-of-the-art performance of deep learning algorithms for TSC by presenting an empirical study of the most recent DNN architectures for TSC. We give an overview of the most successful deep learning applications in various time series domains under a unified taxonomy of DNNs for TSC. We also provide an open source deep learning framework to the TSC community where we implemented each of the compared approaches and evaluated them on a univariate TSC benchmark (the UCR/UEA archive) and 12 multivariate time series datasets. By training 8,730 deep learning models on 97 time series datasets, we propose the most exhaustive study of DNNs for TSC to date.
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