This paper investigates a novel offline change-point detection problem from an information-theoretic perspective. In contrast to most related works, we assume that the knowledge of the underlying pre- and post-change distributions are not known and can only be learned from the training sequences which are available. We further require the probability of the \emph{estimation error} to decay either exponentially or sub-exponentially fast (corresponding respectively to the large and moderate deviations regimes in information theory parlance). Based on the training sequences as well as the test sequence consisting of a single change-point, we design a change-point estimator and further show that this estimator is optimal by establishing matching (strong) converses. This leads to a full characterization of the optimal confidence width (i.e., half the width of the confidence interval within which the true change-point is located at with high probability) as a function of the undetected error, under both the large and moderate deviations regimes.
相關內容
Gaussian processes that can be decomposed into a smooth mean function and a stationary autocorrelated noise process are considered and a fully automatic nonparametric method to simultaneous estimation of mean and auto-covariance functions of such processes is developed. Our empirical Bayes approach is data-driven, numerically efficient and allows for the construction of confidence sets for the mean function. Performance is demonstrated in simulations and real data analysis. The method is implemented in the R package eBsc that accompanies the paper.
The extent to which a matching engine can cloud the modelling of underlying order submission and management processes in a financial market remains an unanswered concern with regards to market models. Here we consider a 10-variate Hawkes process with simple rules to simulate common order types which are submitted to a matching engine. Hawkes processes can be used to model the time and order of events, and how these events relate to each other. However, they provide a freedom with regards to implementation mechanics relating to the prices and volumes of injected orders. This allows us to consider a reference Hawkes model and two additional models which have rules that change the behaviour of limit orders. The resulting trade and quote data from the simulations are then calibrated and compared with the original order generating process to determine the extent with which implementation rules can distort model parameters. Evidence from validation and hypothesis tests suggest that the true model specification can be significantly distorted by market mechanics, and that practical considerations not directly due to model specification can be important with regards to model identification within an inherently asynchronous trading environment.
A novel method is proposed for detecting changes in the covariance structure of moderate dimensional time series. This non-linear test statistic has a number of useful properties. Most importantly, it is independent of the underlying structure of the covariance matrix. We discuss how results from Random Matrix Theory, can be used to study the behaviour of our test statistic in a moderate dimensional setting (i.e. the number of variables is comparable to the length of the data). In particular, we demonstrate that the test statistic converges point wise to a normal distribution under the null hypothesis. We evaluate the performance of the proposed approach on a range of simulated datasets and find that it outperforms a range of alternative recently proposed methods. Finally, we use our approach to study changes in the amount of water on the surface of a plot of soil which feeds into model development for degradation of surface piping.
Sampling methods (e.g., node-wise, layer-wise, or subgraph) has become an indispensable strategy to speed up training large-scale Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). However, existing sampling methods are mostly based on the graph structural information and ignore the dynamicity of optimization, which leads to high variance in estimating the stochastic gradients. The high variance issue can be very pronounced in extremely large graphs, where it results in slow convergence and poor generalization. In this paper, we theoretically analyze the variance of sampling methods and show that, due to the composite structure of empirical risk, the variance of any sampling method can be decomposed into \textit{embedding approximation variance} in the forward stage and \textit{stochastic gradient variance} in the backward stage that necessities mitigating both types of variance to obtain faster convergence rate. We propose a decoupled variance reduction strategy that employs (approximate) gradient information to adaptively sample nodes with minimal variance, and explicitly reduces the variance introduced by embedding approximation. We show theoretically and empirically that the proposed method, even with smaller mini-batch sizes, enjoys a faster convergence rate and entails a better generalization compared to the existing methods.
Graph neural networks (GNNs) are typically applied to static graphs that are assumed to be known upfront. This static input structure is often informed purely by insight of the machine learning practitioner, and might not be optimal for the actual task the GNN is solving. In absence of reliable domain expertise, one might resort to inferring the latent graph structure, which is often difficult due to the vast search space of possible graphs. Here we introduce Pointer Graph Networks (PGNs) which augment sets or graphs with additional inferred edges for improved model expressivity. PGNs allow each node to dynamically point to another node, followed by message passing over these pointers. The sparsity of this adaptable graph structure makes learning tractable while still being sufficiently expressive to simulate complex algorithms. Critically, the pointing mechanism is directly supervised to model long-term sequences of operations on classical data structures, incorporating useful structural inductive biases from theoretical computer science. Qualitatively, we demonstrate that PGNs can learn parallelisable variants of pointer-based data structures, namely disjoint set unions and link/cut trees. PGNs generalise out-of-distribution to 5x larger test inputs on dynamic graph connectivity tasks, outperforming unrestricted GNNs and Deep Sets.
It is a common paradigm in object detection frameworks to treat all samples equally and target at maximizing the performance on average. In this work, we revisit this paradigm through a careful study on how different samples contribute to the overall performance measured in terms of mAP. Our study suggests that the samples in each mini-batch are neither independent nor equally important, and therefore a better classifier on average does not necessarily mean higher mAP. Motivated by this study, we propose the notion of Prime Samples, those that play a key role in driving the detection performance. We further develop a simple yet effective sampling and learning strategy called PrIme Sample Attention (PISA) that directs the focus of the training process towards such samples. Our experiments demonstrate that it is often more effective to focus on prime samples than hard samples when training a detector. Particularly, On the MSCOCO dataset, PISA outperforms the random sampling baseline and hard mining schemes, e.g. OHEM and Focal Loss, consistently by more than 1% on both single-stage and two-stage detectors, with a strong backbone ResNeXt-101.
Latest deep learning methods for object detection provide remarkable performance, but have limits when used in robotic applications. One of the most relevant issues is the long training time, which is due to the large size and imbalance of the associated training sets, characterized by few positive and a large number of negative examples (i.e. background). Proposed approaches are based on end-to-end learning by back-propagation [22] or kernel methods trained with Hard Negatives Mining on top of deep features [8]. These solutions are effective, but prohibitively slow for on-line applications. In this paper we propose a novel pipeline for object detection that overcomes this problem and provides comparable performance, with a 60x training speedup. Our pipeline combines (i) the Region Proposal Network and the deep feature extractor from [22] to efficiently select candidate RoIs and encode them into powerful representations, with (ii) the FALKON [23] algorithm, a novel kernel-based method that allows fast training on large scale problems (millions of points). We address the size and imbalance of training data by exploiting the stochastic subsampling intrinsic into the method and a novel, fast, bootstrapping approach. We assess the effectiveness of the approach on a standard Computer Vision dataset (PASCAL VOC 2007 [5]) and demonstrate its applicability to a real robotic scenario with the iCubWorld Transformations [18] dataset.
A Convolutional Feature Map based Deep Network targeted towards Traffic Detection and Classification
This research mainly emphasizes on traffic detection thus essentially involving object detection and classification. The particular work discussed here is motivated from unsatisfactory attempts of re-using well known pre-trained object detection networks for domain specific data. In this course, some trivial issues leading to prominent performance drop are identified and ways to resolve them are discussed. For example, some simple yet relevant tricks regarding data collection and sampling prove to be very beneficial. Also, introducing a blur net to deal with blurred real time data is another important factor promoting performance elevation. We further study the neural network design issues for beneficial object classification and involve shared, region-independent convolutional features. Adaptive learning rates to deal with saddle points are also investigated and an average covariance matrix based pre-conditioned approach is proposed. We also introduce the use of optical flow features to accommodate orientation information. Experimental results demonstrate that this results in a steady rise in the performance rate.
Lidar based 3D object detection is inevitable for autonomous driving, because it directly links to environmental understanding and therefore builds the base for prediction and motion planning. The capacity of inferencing highly sparse 3D data in real-time is an ill-posed problem for lots of other application areas besides automated vehicles, e.g. augmented reality, personal robotics or industrial automation. We introduce Complex-YOLO, a state of the art real-time 3D object detection network on point clouds only. In this work, we describe a network that expands YOLOv2, a fast 2D standard object detector for RGB images, by a specific complex regression strategy to estimate multi-class 3D boxes in Cartesian space. Thus, we propose a specific Euler-Region-Proposal Network (E-RPN) to estimate the pose of the object by adding an imaginary and a real fraction to the regression network. This ends up in a closed complex space and avoids singularities, which occur by single angle estimations. The E-RPN supports to generalize well during training. Our experiments on the KITTI benchmark suite show that we outperform current leading methods for 3D object detection specifically in terms of efficiency. We achieve state of the art results for cars, pedestrians and cyclists by being more than five times faster than the fastest competitor. Further, our model is capable of estimating all eight KITTI-classes, including Vans, Trucks or sitting pedestrians simultaneously with high accuracy.
In this work, we present a method for tracking and learning the dynamics of all objects in a large scale robot environment. A mobile robot patrols the environment and visits the different locations one by one. Movable objects are discovered by change detection, and tracked throughout the robot deployment. For tracking, we extend the Rao-Blackwellized particle filter of previous work with birth and death processes, enabling the method to handle an arbitrary number of objects. Target births and associations are sampled using Gibbs sampling. The parameters of the system are then learnt using the Expectation Maximization algorithm in an unsupervised fashion. The system therefore enables learning of the dynamics of one particular environment, and of its objects. The algorithm is evaluated on data collected autonomously by a mobile robot in an office environment during a real-world deployment. We show that the algorithm automatically identifies and tracks the moving objects within 3D maps and infers plausible dynamics models, significantly decreasing the modeling bias of our previous work. The proposed method represents an improvement over previous methods for environment dynamics learning as it allows for learning of fine grained processes.
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