We consider the stochastic linear contextual bandit problem with high-dimensional features. We analyze the Thompson sampling algorithm using special classes of sparsity-inducing priors (e.g., spike-and-slab) to model the unknown parameter and provide a nearly optimal upper bound on the expected cumulative regret. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that provides theoretical guarantees of Thompson sampling in high-dimensional and sparse contextual bandits. For faster computation, we use variational inference instead of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to approximate the posterior distribution. Extensive simulations demonstrate the improved performance of our proposed algorithm over existing ones.
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Various contrastive learning approaches have been proposed in recent years and achieve significant empirical success. While effective and prevalent, contrastive learning has been less explored for time series data. A key component of contrastive learning is to select appropriate augmentations imposing some priors to construct feasible positive samples, such that an encoder can be trained to learn robust and discriminative representations. Unlike image and language domains where ``desired'' augmented samples can be generated with the rule of thumb guided by prefabricated human priors, the ad-hoc manual selection of time series augmentations is hindered by their diverse and human-unrecognizable temporal structures. How to find the desired augmentations of time series data that are meaningful for given contrastive learning tasks and datasets remains an open question. In this work, we address the problem by encouraging both high \textit{fidelity} and \textit{variety} based upon information theory. A theoretical analysis leads to the criteria for selecting feasible data augmentations. On top of that, we propose a new contrastive learning approach with information-aware augmentations, InfoTS, that adaptively selects optimal augmentations for time series representation learning. Experiments on various datasets show highly competitive performance with up to 12.0\% reduction in MSE on forecasting tasks and up to 3.7\% relative improvement in accuracy on classification tasks over the leading baselines.
We study contextual linear bandit problems under feature uncertainty; they are noisy with missing entries. To address the challenges of the noise, we analyze Bayesian oracles given observed noisy features. Our Bayesian analysis finds that the optimal hypothesis can be far from the underlying realizability function, depending on the noise characteristics, which are highly non-intuitive and do not occur for classical noiseless setups. This implies that classical approaches cannot guarantee a non-trivial regret bound. Therefore, we propose an algorithm that aims at the Bayesian oracle from observed information under this model, achieving $\tilde{O}(d\sqrt{T})$ regret bound when there is a large number of arms. We demonstrate the proposed algorithm using synthetic and real-world datasets.
We consider a variant of contextual bandits in which the algorithm consumes multiple resources subject to linear constraints on total consumption. This problem generalizes contextual bandits with knapsacks (CBwK), allowing for packing and covering constraints, as well as positive and negative resource consumption. We present a new algorithm that is simple, computationally efficient, and admits vanishing regret. It is statistically optimal for CBwK when an algorithm must stop once some constraint is violated. Our algorithm builds on LagrangeBwK (Immorlica et al., FOCS 2019) , a Lagrangian-based technique for CBwK, and SquareCB (Foster and Rakhlin, ICML 2020), a regression-based technique for contextual bandits. Our analysis leverages the inherent modularity of both techniques.
In complex large-scale systems such as climate, important effects are caused by a combination of confounding processes that are not fully observable. The identification of sources from observations of system state is vital for attribution and prediction, which inform critical policy decisions. The difficulty of these types of inverse problems lies in the inability to isolate sources and the cost of simulating computational models. Surrogate models may enable the many-query algorithms required for source identification, but data challenges arise from high dimensionality of the state and source, limited ensembles of costly model simulations to train a surrogate model, and few and potentially noisy state observations for inversion due to measurement limitations. The influence of auxiliary processes adds an additional layer of uncertainty that further confounds source identification. We introduce a framework based on (1) calibrating deep neural network surrogates to the flow maps provided by an ensemble of simulations obtained by varying sources, and (2) using these surrogates in a Bayesian framework to identify sources from observations via optimization. Focusing on an atmospheric dispersion exemplar, we find that the expressive and computationally efficient nature of the deep neural network operator surrogates in appropriately reduced dimension allows for source identification with uncertainty quantification using limited data. Introducing a variable wind field as an auxiliary process, we find that a Bayesian approximation error approach is essential for reliable source inversion when uncertainty due to wind stresses the algorithm.
We revisit the Bayesian Context Trees (BCT) modelling framework for discrete time series, which was recently found to be very effective in numerous tasks including model selection, estimation and prediction. A novel representation of the induced posterior distribution on model space is derived in terms of a simple branching process, and several consequences of this are explored in theory and in practice. First, it is shown that the branching process representation leads to a simple variable-dimensional Monte Carlo sampler for the joint posterior distribution on models and parameters, which can efficiently produce independent samples. This sampler is found to be more efficient than earlier MCMC samplers for the same tasks. Then, the branching process representation is used to establish the asymptotic consistency of the BCT posterior, including the derivation of an almost-sure convergence rate. Finally, an extensive study is carried out on the performance of the induced Bayesian entropy estimator. Its utility is illustrated through both simulation experiments and real-world applications, where it is found to outperform several state-of-the-art methods.
We present an extension of the linear sampling method for solving the sound-soft inverse acoustic scattering problem with randomly distributed point sources. The theoretical justification of our sampling method is based on the Helmholtz--Kirchhoff identity, the cross-correlation between measurements, and the volume and imaginary near-field operators, which we introduce and analyze. Implementations in MATLAB using boundary elements, the SVD, Tikhonov regularization, and Morozov's discrepancy principle are also discussed. We demonstrate the robustness and accuracy of our algorithms with several numerical experiments in two dimensions.
We consider a high-dimensional dynamic pricing problem under non-stationarity, where a firm sells products to $T$ sequentially arriving consumers that behave according to an unknown demand model with potential changes at unknown times. The demand model is assumed to be a high-dimensional generalized linear model (GLM), allowing for a feature vector in $\mathbb R^d$ that encodes products and consumer information. To achieve optimal revenue (i.e., least regret), the firm needs to learn and exploit the unknown GLMs while monitoring for potential change-points. To tackle such a problem, we first design a novel penalized likelihood-based online change-point detection algorithm for high-dimensional GLMs, which is the first algorithm in the change-point literature that achieves optimal minimax localization error rate for high-dimensional GLMs. A change-point detection assisted dynamic pricing (CPDP) policy is further proposed and achieves a near-optimal regret of order $O(s\sqrt{\Upsilon_T T}\log(Td))$, where $s$ is the sparsity level and $\Upsilon_T$ is the number of change-points. This regret is accompanied with a minimax lower bound, demonstrating the optimality of CPDP (up to logarithmic factors). In particular, the optimality with respect to $\Upsilon_T$ is seen for the first time in the dynamic pricing literature, and is achieved via a novel accelerated exploration mechanism. Extensive simulation experiments and a real data application on online lending illustrate the efficiency of the proposed policy and the importance and practical value of handling non-stationarity in dynamic pricing.
We consider the estimation problem in high-dimensional semi-supervised learning. Our goal is to investigate when and how the unlabeled data can be exploited to improve the estimation of the regression parameters of linear model in light of the fact that such linear models may be misspecified in data analysis. We first establish the minimax lower bound for parameter estimation in the semi-supervised setting, and show that this lower bound cannot be achieved by supervised estimators using the labeled data only. We propose an optimal semi-supervised estimator that can attain this lower bound and therefore improves the supervised estimators, provided that the conditional mean function can be consistently estimated with a proper rate. We further propose a safe semi-supervised estimator. We view it safe, because this estimator is always at least as good as the supervised estimators. We also extend our idea to the aggregation of multiple semi-supervised estimators caused by different misspecifications of the conditional mean function. Extensive numerical simulations and a real data analysis are conducted to illustrate our theoretical results.
Spatiotemporal predictive learning aims to generate future frames by learning from historical frames. In this paper, we investigate existing methods and present a general framework of spatiotemporal predictive learning, in which the spatial encoder and decoder capture intra-frame features and the middle temporal module catches inter-frame correlations. While the mainstream methods employ recurrent units to capture long-term temporal dependencies, they suffer from low computational efficiency due to their unparallelizable architectures. To parallelize the temporal module, we propose the Temporal Attention Unit (TAU), which decomposes the temporal attention into intra-frame statical attention and inter-frame dynamical attention. Moreover, while the mean squared error loss focuses on intra-frame errors, we introduce a novel differential divergence regularization to take inter-frame variations into account. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed method enables the derived model to achieve competitive performance on various spatiotemporal prediction benchmarks.
Graph neural networks (GNNs) have emerged as a powerful paradigm for embedding-based entity alignment due to their capability of identifying isomorphic subgraphs. However, in real knowledge graphs (KGs), the counterpart entities usually have non-isomorphic neighborhood structures, which easily causes GNNs to yield different representations for them. To tackle this problem, we propose a new KG alignment network, namely AliNet, aiming at mitigating the non-isomorphism of neighborhood structures in an end-to-end manner. As the direct neighbors of counterpart entities are usually dissimilar due to the schema heterogeneity, AliNet introduces distant neighbors to expand the overlap between their neighborhood structures. It employs an attention mechanism to highlight helpful distant neighbors and reduce noises. Then, it controls the aggregation of both direct and distant neighborhood information using a gating mechanism. We further propose a relation loss to refine entity representations. We perform thorough experiments with detailed ablation studies and analyses on five entity alignment datasets, demonstrating the effectiveness of AliNet.
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