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Skillful subseasonal forecasts beyond 2 weeks are crucial for a wide range of applications across various sectors of society. Recently, state-of-the-art machine learning based weather forecasting models have made significant advancements, outperforming the high-resolution forecast (HRES) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). However, the full potential of machine learning models in subseasonal forecasts has yet to be fully explored. In this study, we introduce FuXi Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (FuXi-S2S), a machine learning based subseasonal forecasting model that provides global daily mean forecasts up to 42 days, covering 5 upper-air atmospheric variables at 13 pressure levels and 11 surface variables. FuXi-S2S integrates an enhanced FuXi base model with a perturbation module for flow-dependent perturbations in hidden features, and incorporates Perlin noise to perturb initial conditions. The model is developed using 72 years of daily statistics from ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data. When compared to the ECMWF Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) reforecasts, the FuXi-S2S forecasts demonstrate superior deterministic and ensemble forecasts for total precipitation (TP), outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and geopotential at 500 hPa (Z500). Although it shows slightly inferior performance in predicting 2-meter temperature (T2M), it has clear advantages over land area. Regarding the extreme forecasts, FuXi-S2S outperforms ECMWF S2S globally for TP. Furthermore, FuXi-S2S forecasts surpass the ECMWF S2S reforecasts in predicting the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a key source of subseasonal predictability. They extend the skillful prediction of MJO from 30 days to 36 days.

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機器學習(Machine Learning)是一個研究計算學習方法的國際論壇。該雜志發表文章,報告廣泛的學習方法應用于各種學習問題的實質性結果。該雜志的特色論文描述研究的問題和方法,應用研究和研究方法的問題。有關學習問題或方法的論文通過實證研究、理論分析或與心理現象的比較提供了堅實的支持。應用論文展示了如何應用學習方法來解決重要的應用問題。研究方法論文改進了機器學習的研究方法。所有的論文都以其他研究人員可以驗證或復制的方式描述了支持證據。論文還詳細說明了學習的組成部分,并討論了關于知識表示和性能任務的假設。 官網地址:

Point clouds are versatile representations of 3D objects and have found widespread application in science and engineering. Many successful deep-learning models have been proposed that use them as input. The domain of chemical and materials modeling is especially challenging because exact compliance with physical constraints is highly desirable for a model to be usable in practice. These constraints include smoothness and invariance with respect to translations, rotations, and permutations of identical atoms. If these requirements are not rigorously fulfilled, atomistic simulations might lead to absurd outcomes even if the model has excellent accuracy. Consequently, dedicated architectures, which achieve invariance by restricting their design space, have been developed. General-purpose point-cloud models are more varied but often disregard rotational symmetry. We propose a general symmetrization method that adds rotational equivariance to any given model while preserving all the other requirements. Our approach simplifies the development of better atomic-scale machine-learning schemes by relaxing the constraints on the design space and making it possible to incorporate ideas that proved effective in other domains. We demonstrate this idea by introducing the Point Edge Transformer (PET) architecture, which is not intrinsically equivariant but achieves state-of-the-art performance on several benchmark datasets of molecules and solids. A-posteriori application of our general protocol makes PET exactly equivariant, with minimal changes to its accuracy.

This paper investigates the language of propaganda and its stylistic features. It presents the PPN dataset, standing for Propagandist Pseudo-News, a multisource, multilingual, multimodal dataset composed of news articles extracted from websites identified as propaganda sources by expert agencies. A limited sample from this set was randomly mixed with papers from the regular French press, and their URL masked, to conduct an annotation-experiment by humans, using 11 distinct labels. The results show that human annotators were able to reliably discriminate between the two types of press across each of the labels. We propose different NLP techniques to identify the cues used by the annotators, and to compare them with machine classification. They include the analyzer VAGO to measure discourse vagueness and subjectivity, a TF-IDF to serve as a baseline, and four different classifiers: two RoBERTa-based models, CATS using syntax, and one XGBoost combining syntactic and semantic features. Keywords: Propaganda, Fake News, Explainability, AI alignment, Vagueness, Subjectivity, Exaggeration, Stylistic analysis

We propose a novel class of temporal high-order parametric finite element methods for solving a wide range of geometric flows of curves and surfaces. By incorporating the backward differentiation formulae (BDF) for time discretization into the BGN formulation, originally proposed by Barrett, Garcke, and N\"urnberg (J. Comput. Phys., 222 (2007), pp.~441--467), we successfully develop high-order BGN/BDF$k$ schemes. The proposed BGN/BDF$k$ schemes not only retain almost all the advantages of the classical first-order BGN scheme such as computational efficiency and good mesh quality, but also exhibit the desired $k$th-order temporal accuracy in terms of shape metrics, ranging from second-order to fourth-order accuracy. Furthermore, we validate the performance of our proposed BGN/BDF$k$ schemes through extensive numerical examples, demonstrating their high-order temporal accuracy for various types of geometric flows while maintaining good mesh quality throughout the evolution.

We leverage Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) to learn solution functions of parametric Navier-Stokes Equations (NSE). Our proposed approach results in a feasible optimization problem setup that bypasses PINNs' limitations in converging to solutions of highly nonlinear parametric-PDEs like NSE. We consider the parameter(s) of interest as inputs of PINNs along with spatio-temporal coordinates, and train PINNs on generated numerical solutions of parametric-PDES for instances of the parameters. We perform experiments on the classical 2D flow past cylinder problem aiming to learn velocities and pressure functions over a range of Reynolds numbers as parameter of interest. Provision of training data from generated numerical simulations allows for interpolation of the solution functions for a range of parameters. Therefore, we compare PINNs with unconstrained conventional Neural Networks (NN) on this problem setup to investigate the effectiveness of considering the PDEs regularization in the loss function. We show that our proposed approach results in optimizing PINN models that learn the solution functions while making sure that flow predictions are in line with conservational laws of mass and momentum. Our results show that PINN results in accurate prediction of gradients compared to NN model, this is clearly visible in predicted vorticity fields given that none of these models were trained on vorticity labels.

We study variation in policing outcomes attributable to differential policing practices in New York City (NYC) using geographic regression discontinuity designs (GeoRDDs). By focusing on small geographic windows near police precinct boundaries we can estimate local average treatment effects of police precincts on arrest rates. We propose estimands and develop estimators for the GeoRDD when the data come from a spatial point process. Additionally, standard GeoRDDs rely on continuity assumptions of the potential outcome surface or a local randomization assumption within a window around the boundary. These assumptions, however, can easily be violated in realistic applications. We develop a novel and robust approach to testing whether there are differences in policing outcomes that are caused by differences in police precincts across NYC. Importantly, this approach is applicable to standard regression discontinuity designs with both numeric and point process data. This approach is robust to violations of traditional assumptions made, and is valid under weaker assumptions. We use a unique form of resampling to provide a valid estimate of our test statistic's null distribution even under violations of standard assumptions. This procedure gives substantially different results in the analysis of NYC arrest rates than those that rely on standard assumptions.

The Immersed Boundary (IB) method of Peskin (J. Comput. Phys., 1977) is useful for problems involving fluid-structure interactions or complex geometries. By making use of a regular Cartesian grid that is independent of the geometry, the IB framework yields a robust numerical scheme that can efficiently handle immersed deformable structures. Additionally, the IB method has been adapted to problems with prescribed motion and other PDEs with given boundary data. IB methods for these problems traditionally involve penalty forces which only approximately satisfy boundary conditions, or they are formulated as constraint problems. In the latter approach, one must find the unknown forces by solving an equation that corresponds to a poorly conditioned first-kind integral equation. This operation can require a large number of iterations of a Krylov method, and since a time-dependent problem requires this solve at each time step, this method can be prohibitively inefficient without preconditioning. In this work, we introduce a new, well-conditioned IB formulation for boundary value problems, which we call the Immersed Boundary Double Layer (IBDL) method. We present the method as it applies to Poisson and Helmholtz problems to demonstrate its efficiency over the original constraint method. In this double layer formulation, the equation for the unknown boundary distribution corresponds to a well-conditioned second-kind integral equation that can be solved efficiently with a small number of iterations of a Krylov method. Furthermore, the iteration count is independent of both the mesh size and immersed boundary point spacing. The method converges away from the boundary, and when combined with a local interpolation, it converges in the entire PDE domain. Additionally, while the original constraint method applies only to Dirichlet problems, the IBDL formulation can also be used for Neumann conditions.

Classic Delphi and Fuzzy Delphi methods are used to test content validity of data collection tools such as questionnaires. Fuzzy Delphi takes the opinion issued by judges from a linguistic perspective reducing ambiguity in opinions by using fuzzy numbers. We propose an extension named 2-Tuple Fuzzy Linguistic Delphi method to deal with scenarios in which judges show different expertise degrees by using fuzzy multigranular semantics of the linguistic terms and to obtain intermediate and final results expressed by 2-tuple linguistic values. The key idea of our proposal is to validate the full questionnaire by means of the evaluation of its parts, defining the validity of each item as a Decision Making problem. Taking the opinion of experts, we measure the degree of consensus, the degree of consistency, and the linguistic score of each item, in order to detect those items that affect, positively or negatively, the quality of the instrument. Considering the real need to evaluate a b-learning educational experience with a consensual questionnaire, we present a Decision Making model for questionnaire validation that solves it. Additionally, we contribute to this consensus reaching problem by developing an online tool under GPL v3 license. The software visualizes the collective valuations for each iteration and assists to determine which parts of the questionnaire should be modified to reach a consensual solution.

We present ResMLP, an architecture built entirely upon multi-layer perceptrons for image classification. It is a simple residual network that alternates (i) a linear layer in which image patches interact, independently and identically across channels, and (ii) a two-layer feed-forward network in which channels interact independently per patch. When trained with a modern training strategy using heavy data-augmentation and optionally distillation, it attains surprisingly good accuracy/complexity trade-offs on ImageNet. We will share our code based on the Timm library and pre-trained models.

The remarkable practical success of deep learning has revealed some major surprises from a theoretical perspective. In particular, simple gradient methods easily find near-optimal solutions to non-convex optimization problems, and despite giving a near-perfect fit to training data without any explicit effort to control model complexity, these methods exhibit excellent predictive accuracy. We conjecture that specific principles underlie these phenomena: that overparametrization allows gradient methods to find interpolating solutions, that these methods implicitly impose regularization, and that overparametrization leads to benign overfitting. We survey recent theoretical progress that provides examples illustrating these principles in simpler settings. We first review classical uniform convergence results and why they fall short of explaining aspects of the behavior of deep learning methods. We give examples of implicit regularization in simple settings, where gradient methods lead to minimal norm functions that perfectly fit the training data. Then we review prediction methods that exhibit benign overfitting, focusing on regression problems with quadratic loss. For these methods, we can decompose the prediction rule into a simple component that is useful for prediction and a spiky component that is useful for overfitting but, in a favorable setting, does not harm prediction accuracy. We focus specifically on the linear regime for neural networks, where the network can be approximated by a linear model. In this regime, we demonstrate the success of gradient flow, and we consider benign overfitting with two-layer networks, giving an exact asymptotic analysis that precisely demonstrates the impact of overparametrization. We conclude by highlighting the key challenges that arise in extending these insights to realistic deep learning settings.

Graph representation learning for hypergraphs can be used to extract patterns among higher-order interactions that are critically important in many real world problems. Current approaches designed for hypergraphs, however, are unable to handle different types of hypergraphs and are typically not generic for various learning tasks. Indeed, models that can predict variable-sized heterogeneous hyperedges have not been available. Here we develop a new self-attention based graph neural network called Hyper-SAGNN applicable to homogeneous and heterogeneous hypergraphs with variable hyperedge sizes. We perform extensive evaluations on multiple datasets, including four benchmark network datasets and two single-cell Hi-C datasets in genomics. We demonstrate that Hyper-SAGNN significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on traditional tasks while also achieving great performance on a new task called outsider identification. Hyper-SAGNN will be useful for graph representation learning to uncover complex higher-order interactions in different applications.

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