COVID-19 has disrupted society and changed how people learn, work and live. The availability of vaccines in the spring of 2021, however, led to a gradual return of many pre-pandemic activities in Massachusetts in the fall of 2021. Leveraging data that were collected using a map-based survey tool in the Greater Boston area in the fall of 2021, this study explores changes in travel behavior due to COVID-19 and investigates the underlying factors contributing to these changes. First, a structural equation modeling technique is developed to capture the interactions between various travel choices, including working from home, travel mode use and change in car ownership. Moreover, attitudinal factors such as risk perceptions and attitudes towards WFH are incorporated into the framework to explain behavior changes. Second, a discrete choice modeling approach is taken to study shifts in commuting mode choices in the fall of 2021. The results show that in the fall of 2021, people became more likely to use their cars to commute, and for those who bought cars during the pandemic, they tended to work on-site more. Our findings can provide planners and policymakers with information upon which to base travel demand management decisions in the post-pandemic era.
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Although there is substantial literature on identifying structural changes for continuous spatio-temporal processes, the same is not true for categorical spatio-temporal data. This work bridges that gap and proposes a novel spatio-temporal model to identify changepoints in ordered categorical data. The model leverages an additive mean structure with separable Gaussian space-time processes for the latent variable. Our proposed methodology can detect significant changes in the mean structure as well as in the spatio-temporal covariance structures. We implement the model through a Bayesian framework that gives a computational edge over conventional approaches. From an application perspective, our approach's capability to handle ordinal categorical data provides an added advantage in real applications. This is illustrated using county-wise COVID-19 data (converted to categories according to CDC guidelines) from the state of New York in the USA. Our model identifies three changepoints in the transmission levels of COVID-19, which are indeed aligned with the ``waves'' due to specific variants encountered during the pandemic. The findings also provide interesting insights into the effects of vaccination and the extent of spatial and temporal dependence in different phases of the pandemic.
Separating environmental effects from those of interspecific interactions on species distributions has always been a central objective of community ecology. Despite years of effort in analysing patterns of species co-occurrences and the developments of sophisticated tools, we are still unable to address this major objective. A key reason is that the wealth of ecological knowledge is not sufficiently harnessed in current statistical models, notably the knowledge on interspecific interactions. Here, we develop ELGRIN, a statistical model that simultaneously combines knowledge on interspecific interactions (i.e., the metanetwork), environmental data and species occurrences to tease apart their relative effects on species distributions. Instead of focusing on single effects of pairwise species interactions, which have little sense in complex communities, ELGRIN contrasts the overall effect of species interactions to that of the environment. Using various simulated and empirical data, we demonstrate the suitability of ELGRIN to address the objectives for various types of interspecific interactions like mutualism, competition and trophic interactions. We then apply the model on vertebrate trophic networks in the European Alps to map the effect of biotic interactions on species distributions.Data on ecological networks are everyday increasing and we believe the time is ripe to mobilize these data to better understand biodiversity patterns. ELGRIN provides this opportunity to unravel how interspecific interactions actually influence species distributions.
Psychoactive substances, which influence the brain to alter perceptions and moods, have the potential to have positive and negative effects on critical software engineering tasks. They are widely used in software, but that use is not well understood. We present the results of the first qualitative investigation of the experiences of, and challenges faced by, psychoactive substance users in professional software communities. We conduct a thematic analysis of hour-long interviews with 26 professional programmers who use psychoactive substances at work. Our results provide insight into individual motivations and impacts, including mental health and the relationships between various substances and productivity. Our findings elaborate on socialization effects, including soft skills, stigma, and remote work. The analysis also highlights implications for organizational policy, including positive and negative impacts on recruitment and retention. By exploring individual usage motivations, social and cultural ramifications, and organizational policy, we demonstrate how substance use can permeate all levels of software development.
User interaction data is an important source of supervision in counterfactual learning to rank (CLTR). Such data suffers from presentation bias. Much work in unbiased learning to rank (ULTR) focuses on position bias, i.e., items at higher ranks are more likely to be examined and clicked. Inter-item dependencies also influence examination probabilities, with outlier items in a ranking as an important example. Outliers are defined as items that observably deviate from the rest and therefore stand out in the ranking. In this paper, we identify and introduce the bias brought about by outlier items: users tend to click more on outlier items and their close neighbors. To this end, we first conduct a controlled experiment to study the effect of outliers on user clicks. Next, to examine whether the findings from our controlled experiment generalize to naturalistic situations, we explore real-world click logs from an e-commerce platform. We show that, in both scenarios, users tend to click significantly more on outlier items than on non-outlier items in the same rankings. We show that this tendency holds for all positions, i.e., for any specific position, an item receives more interactions when presented as an outlier as opposed to a non-outlier item. We conclude from our analysis that the effect of outliers on clicks is a type of bias that should be addressed in ULTR. We therefore propose an outlier-aware click model that accounts for both outlier and position bias, called outlier-aware position-based model ( OPBM). We estimate click propensities based on OPBM ; through extensive experiments performed on both real-world e-commerce data and semi-synthetic data, we verify the effectiveness of our outlier-aware click model. Our results show the superiority of OPBM against baselines in terms of ranking performance and true relevance estimation.
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on China's labour market, and has largely changed the structure of labour supply and demand in different regions. It becomes critical for policy makers to understand the emerging dynamics of the post-pandemic labour market and provide the right policies for supporting the sustainable development of regional economies. To this end, in this paper, we provide a data-driven approach to assess and understand the evolving dynamics in regions' labour markets with large-scale online job search queries and job postings. In particular, we model the spatial-temporal patterns of labour flow and labour demand which reflect the attractiveness of regional labour markets. Our analysis shows that regional labour markets suffered from dramatic changes and demonstrated unusual signs of recovery during the pandemic. Specifically, the intention of labour flow quickly recovered with a trend of migrating from large to small cities and from northern to southern regions, respectively. Meanwhile, due to the pandemic, the demand of blue-collar workers has been substantially reduced compared to that of white-collar workers. In addition, the demand structure of blue-collar jobs also changed from manufacturing to service industries. Our findings reveal that the pandemic can cause varied impacts on regions with different structures of labour demand and control policies. This analysis provides timely information for both individuals and organizations in confronting the dynamic change in job markets during the extreme events, such as pandemics. Also, the governments can be better assisted for providing the right policies on job markets in facilitating the sustainable development of regions' economies.
This paper examines how the European press dealt with the no-vax reactions against the Covid-19 vaccine and the dis- and misinformation associated with this movement. Using a curated dataset of 1786 articles from 19 European newspapers on the anti-vaccine movement over a period of 22 months in 2020-2021, we used Natural Language Processing techniques including topic modeling, sentiment analysis, semantic relationship with word embeddings, political analysis, named entity recognition, and semantic networks, to understand the specific role of the European traditional press in the disinformation ecosystem. The results of this multi-angle analysis demonstrate that the European well-established press actively opposed a variety of hoaxes mainly spread on social media, and was critical of the anti-vax trend, regardless of the political orientation of the newspaper. This confirms the relevance of studying the role of high-quality press in the disinformation ecosystem.
In this paper, we present CarGameAR: An Integrated AR Car Game Authoring Interface for Custom-Built Car Programed on Arduino Board. The car consists of an Arduino board, an H-bridge, and motors. The objective of the project is to create a system that can move a car in different directions using a computer application. The system uses Unity software to create a virtual environment where the user can control the car using keyboard commands. The car's motion is achieved by sending signals from the computer to the Arduino board, which then drives the motors through the H-bridge. The project provides a cost-effective and efficient way to build a car, which can be used for educational purposes, such as teaching programming. Moreover, this project is not limited to the control of the car through keyboard commands in a virtual environment. The system can be adapted to support augmented reality (AR) technology, providing an even more immersive and engaging user experience. By integrating the car with AR, the user can control the car's motion using physical gestures and movements, adding an extra layer of interactivity to the system. This makes the car an ideal platform for game development in AR, allowing the user to create driving games that blend the physical and virtual worlds seamlessly. Additionally, the car's affordability and ease of construction make it an accessible and valuable tool for teaching programming and principles in a fun and interactive way. Overall, this project demonstrates the versatility and potential of the car system, highlighting the various applications and possibilities it offers for both education and entertainment.
Nowadays, embedded devices are increasingly present in everyday life, often controlling and processing critical information. For this reason, these devices make use of cryptographic protocols. However, embedded devices are particularly vulnerable to attackers seeking to hijack their operation and extract sensitive information. Code-Reuse Attacks (CRAs) can steer the execution of a program to malicious outcomes, leveraging existing on-board code without direct access to the device memory. Moreover, Side-Channel Attacks (SCAs) may reveal secret information to the attacker based on mere observation of the device. In this paper, we are particularly concerned with thwarting CRAs and SCAs against embedded devices, while taking into account their resource limitations. Fine-grained code diversification can hinder CRAs by introducing uncertainty to the binary code; while software mechanisms can thwart timing or power SCAs. The resilience to either attack may come at the price of the overall efficiency. Moreover, a unified approach that preserves these mitigations against both CRAs and SCAs is not available. This is the main novelty of our approach, Secure Diversity by Construction (SecDivCon); a combinatorial compiler-based approach that combines software diversification against CRAs with software mitigations against SCAs. SecDivCon restricts the performance overhead in the generated code, offering a secure-by-design control on the performance-security trade-off. Our experiments show that SCA-aware diversification is effective against CRAs, while preserving SCA mitigation properties at a low, controllable overhead. Given the combinatorial nature of our approach, SecDivCon is suitable for small, performance-critical functions that are sensitive to SCAs. SecDivCon may be used as a building block to whole-program code diversification or in a re-randomization scheme of cryptographic code.
Federated learning (FL) is an emerging, privacy-preserving machine learning paradigm, drawing tremendous attention in both academia and industry. A unique characteristic of FL is heterogeneity, which resides in the various hardware specifications and dynamic states across the participating devices. Theoretically, heterogeneity can exert a huge influence on the FL training process, e.g., causing a device unavailable for training or unable to upload its model updates. Unfortunately, these impacts have never been systematically studied and quantified in existing FL literature. In this paper, we carry out the first empirical study to characterize the impacts of heterogeneity in FL. We collect large-scale data from 136k smartphones that can faithfully reflect heterogeneity in real-world settings. We also build a heterogeneity-aware FL platform that complies with the standard FL protocol but with heterogeneity in consideration. Based on the data and the platform, we conduct extensive experiments to compare the performance of state-of-the-art FL algorithms under heterogeneity-aware and heterogeneity-unaware settings. Results show that heterogeneity causes non-trivial performance degradation in FL, including up to 9.2% accuracy drop, 2.32x lengthened training time, and undermined fairness. Furthermore, we analyze potential impact factors and find that device failure and participant bias are two potential factors for performance degradation. Our study provides insightful implications for FL practitioners. On the one hand, our findings suggest that FL algorithm designers consider necessary heterogeneity during the evaluation. On the other hand, our findings urge system providers to design specific mechanisms to mitigate the impacts of heterogeneity.
Properly handling missing data is a fundamental challenge in recommendation. Most present works perform negative sampling from unobserved data to supply the training of recommender models with negative signals. Nevertheless, existing negative sampling strategies, either static or adaptive ones, are insufficient to yield high-quality negative samples --- both informative to model training and reflective of user real needs. In this work, we hypothesize that item knowledge graph (KG), which provides rich relations among items and KG entities, could be useful to infer informative and factual negative samples. Towards this end, we develop a new negative sampling model, Knowledge Graph Policy Network (KGPolicy), which works as a reinforcement learning agent to explore high-quality negatives. Specifically, by conducting our designed exploration operations, it navigates from the target positive interaction, adaptively receives knowledge-aware negative signals, and ultimately yields a potential negative item to train the recommender. We tested on a matrix factorization (MF) model equipped with KGPolicy, and it achieves significant improvements over both state-of-the-art sampling methods like DNS and IRGAN, and KG-enhanced recommender models like KGAT. Further analyses from different angles provide insights of knowledge-aware sampling. We release the codes and datasets at //github.com/xiangwang1223/kgpolicy.
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