In recent years, many connections have been made between minimal codes, a classical object in coding theory, and other remarkable structures in finite geometry and combinatorics. One of the main problems related to minimal codes is to give lower and upper bounds on the length $m(k,q)$ of the shortest minimal codes of a given dimension $k$ over the finite field $\mathbb{F}_q$. It has been recently proved that $m(k, q) \geq (q+1)(k-1)$. In this note, we prove that $\liminf_{k \rightarrow \infty} \frac{m(k, q)}{k} \geq (q+ \varepsilon(q) )$, where $\varepsilon$ is an increasing function such that $1.52 <\varepsilon(2)\leq \varepsilon(q) \leq \sqrt{2} + \frac{1}{2}$. Hence, the previously known lower bound is not tight for large enough $k$. We then focus on the binary case and prove some structural results on minimal codes of length $3(k-1)$. As a byproduct, we are able to show that, if $k = 5 \pmod 8$ and for other small values of $k$, the bound is not tight.
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Additive Noise Models (ANM) encode a popular functional assumption that enables learning causal structure from observational data. Due to a lack of real-world data meeting the assumptions, synthetic ANM data are often used to evaluate causal discovery algorithms. Reisach et al. (2021) show that, for common simulation parameters, a variable ordering by increasing variance is closely aligned with a causal order and introduce var-sortability to quantify the alignment. Here, we show that not only variance, but also the fraction of a variable's variance explained by all others, as captured by the coefficient of determination $R^2$, tends to increase along the causal order. Simple baseline algorithms can use $R^2$-sortability to match the performance of established methods. Since $R^2$-sortability is invariant under data rescaling, these algorithms perform equally well on standardized or rescaled data, addressing a key limitation of algorithms exploiting var-sortability. We characterize and empirically assess $R^2$-sortability for different simulation parameters. We show that all simulation parameters can affect $R^2$-sortability and must be chosen deliberately to control the difficulty of the causal discovery task and the real-world plausibility of the simulated data. We provide an implementation of the sortability measures and sortability-based algorithms in our library CausalDisco (//github.com/CausalDisco/CausalDisco).
Without writing a single line of code by a human, an example Monte Carlo simulation based application for stochastic dependence modeling with copulas is developed using a state-of-the-art large language model (LLM) fine-tuned for conversations. This includes interaction with ChatGPT in natural language and using mathematical formalism, which, under careful supervision by a human-expert, led to producing a working code in MATLAB, Python and R for sampling from a given copula model, evaluation of the model's density, performing maximum likelihood estimation, optimizing the code for parallel computing for CPUs as well as for GPUs, and visualization of the computed results. In contrast to other emerging studies that assess the accuracy of LLMs like ChatGPT on tasks from a selected area, this work rather investigates ways how to achieve a successful solution of a standard statistical task in a collaboration of a human-expert and artificial intelligence (AI). Particularly, through careful prompt engineering, we separate successful solutions generated by ChatGPT from unsuccessful ones, resulting in a comprehensive list of related pros and cons. It is demonstrated that if the typical pitfalls are avoided, we can substantially benefit from collaborating with an AI partner. For example, we show that if ChatGPT is not able to provide a correct solution due to a lack of or incorrect knowledge, the human-expert can feed it with the correct knowledge, e.g., in the form of mathematical theorems and formulas, and make it to apply the gained knowledge in order to provide a solution that is correct. Such ability presents an attractive opportunity to achieve a programmed solution even for users with rather limited knowledge of programming techniques.
We present a unified framework for deriving PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds. Unlike most previous literature on this topic, our bounds are anytime-valid (i.e., time-uniform), meaning that they hold at all stopping times, not only for a fixed sample size. Our approach combines four tools in the following order: (a) nonnegative supermartingales or reverse submartingales, (b) the method of mixtures, (c) the Donsker-Varadhan formula (or other convex duality principles), and (d) Ville's inequality. Our main result is a PAC-Bayes theorem which holds for a wide class of discrete stochastic processes. We show how this result implies time-uniform versions of well-known classical PAC-Bayes bounds, such as those of Seeger, McAllester, Maurer, and Catoni, in addition to many recent bounds. We also present several novel bounds. Our framework also enables us to relax traditional assumptions; in particular, we consider nonstationary loss functions and non-i.i.d. data. In sum, we unify the derivation of past bounds and ease the search for future bounds: one may simply check if our supermartingale or submartingale conditions are met and, if so, be guaranteed a (time-uniform) PAC-Bayes bound.
Temporal and numerical expression understanding is of great importance in many downstream Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Information Retrieval (IR) tasks. However, much previous work covers only a few sub-types and focuses only on entity extraction, which severely limits the usability of identified mentions. In order for such entities to be useful in downstream scenarios, coverage and granularity of sub-types are important; and, even more so, providing resolution into concrete values that can be manipulated. Furthermore, most previous work addresses only a handful of languages. Here we describe a multi-lingual evaluation dataset - NTX - covering diverse temporal and numerical expressions across 14 languages and covering extraction, normalization, and resolution. Along with the dataset we provide a robust rule-based system as a strong baseline for comparisons against other models to be evaluated in this dataset. Data and code are available at \url{//aka.ms/NTX}.
Retinal fundus images can be an invaluable diagnosis tool for screening epidemic diseases like hypertension or diabetes. And they become especially useful when the arterioles and venules they depict are clearly identified and annotated. However, manual annotation of these vessels is extremely time demanding and taxing, which calls for automatic segmentation. Although convolutional neural networks can achieve high overlap between predictions and expert annotations, they often fail to produce topologically correct predictions of tubular structures. This situation is exacerbated by the bifurcation versus crossing ambiguity which causes classification mistakes. This paper shows that including a topology preserving term in the loss function improves the continuity of the segmented vessels, although at the expense of artery-vein misclassification and overall lower overlap metrics. However, we show that by including an orientation score guided convolutional module, based on the anisotropic single sided cake wavelet, we reduce such misclassification and further increase the topology correctness of the results. We evaluate our model on public datasets with conveniently chosen metrics to assess both overlap and topology correctness, showing that our model is able to produce results on par with state-of-the-art from the point of view of overlap, while increasing topological accuracy.
Without the ability to estimate and benchmark AI capability advancements, organizations are left to respond to each change reactively, impeding their ability to build viable mid and long-term strategies. This paper explores the recent growth of forecasting, a political science tool that uses explicit assumptions and quantitative estimation that leads to improved prediction accuracy. Done at the collective level, forecasting can identify and verify talent, enable leaders to build better models of AI advancements and improve inputs into design policy. Successful approaches to forecasting and case studies are examined, revealing a subclass of "superforecasters" who outperform 98% of the population and whose insights will be most reliable. Finally, techniques behind successful forecasting are outlined, including Phillip Tetlock's "Ten Commandments." To adapt to a quickly changing technology landscape, designers and policymakers should consider forecasting as a first line of defense.
In tug-of-war, two players compete by moving a counter along edges of a graph, each winning the right to move at a given turn according to the flip of a possibly biased coin. The game ends when the counter reaches the boundary, a fixed subset of the vertices, at which point one player pays the other an amount determined by the boundary vertex. Economists and mathematicians have independently studied tug-of-war for many years, focussing respectively on resource-allocation forms of the game, in which players iteratively spend precious budgets in an effort to influence the bias of the coins that determine the turn victors; and on PDE arising in fine mesh limits of the constant-bias game in a Euclidean setting. In this article, we offer a mathematical treatment of a class of tug-of-war games with allocated budgets: each player is initially given a fixed budget which she draws on throughout the game to offer a stake at the start of each turn, and her probability of winning the turn is the ratio of her stake and the sum of the two stakes. We consider the game played on a tree, with boundary being the set of leaves, and the payment function being the indicator of a single distinguished leaf. We find the game value and the essentially unique Nash equilibrium of a leisurely version of the game, in which the move at any given turn is cancelled with constant probability after stakes have been placed. We show that the ratio of the players' remaining budgets is maintained at its initial value $\lambda$; game value is a biased infinity harmonic function; and the proportion of remaining budget that players stake at a given turn is given in terms of the spatial gradient and the $\lambda$-derivative of game value. We also indicate examples in which the solution takes a different form in the non-leisurely game.
While code-mixing is a common linguistic practice in many parts of the world, collecting high-quality and low-cost code-mixed data remains a challenge for natural language processing (NLP) research. The proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) in recent times compels one to ask: can these systems be used for data generation? In this article, we explore prompting multilingual LLMs in a zero-shot manner to create code-mixed data for five languages in South East Asia (SEA) -- Indonesian, Malay, Chinese, Tagalog, Vietnamese, as well as the creole language Singlish. We find that ChatGPT shows the most potential, capable of producing code-mixed text 68% of the time when the term "code-mixing" is explicitly defined. Moreover, both ChatGPT's and InstructGPT's (davinci-003) performances in generating Singlish texts are noteworthy, averaging a 96% success rate across a variety of prompts. Their code-mixing proficiency, however, is dampened by word choice errors that lead to semantic inaccuracies. Other multilingual models such as BLOOMZ and Flan-T5-XXL are unable to produce code-mixed texts altogether. By highlighting the limited promises of LLMs in a specific form of low-resource data generation, we call for a measured approach when applying similar techniques to other data-scarce NLP contexts.
We hypothesize that due to the greedy nature of learning in multi-modal deep neural networks, these models tend to rely on just one modality while under-fitting the other modalities. Such behavior is counter-intuitive and hurts the models' generalization, as we observe empirically. To estimate the model's dependence on each modality, we compute the gain on the accuracy when the model has access to it in addition to another modality. We refer to this gain as the conditional utilization rate. In the experiments, we consistently observe an imbalance in conditional utilization rates between modalities, across multiple tasks and architectures. Since conditional utilization rate cannot be computed efficiently during training, we introduce a proxy for it based on the pace at which the model learns from each modality, which we refer to as the conditional learning speed. We propose an algorithm to balance the conditional learning speeds between modalities during training and demonstrate that it indeed addresses the issue of greedy learning. The proposed algorithm improves the model's generalization on three datasets: Colored MNIST, Princeton ModelNet40, and NVIDIA Dynamic Hand Gesture.
With the rapid increase of large-scale, real-world datasets, it becomes critical to address the problem of long-tailed data distribution (i.e., a few classes account for most of the data, while most classes are under-represented). Existing solutions typically adopt class re-balancing strategies such as re-sampling and re-weighting based on the number of observations for each class. In this work, we argue that as the number of samples increases, the additional benefit of a newly added data point will diminish. We introduce a novel theoretical framework to measure data overlap by associating with each sample a small neighboring region rather than a single point. The effective number of samples is defined as the volume of samples and can be calculated by a simple formula $(1-\beta^{n})/(1-\beta)$, where $n$ is the number of samples and $\beta \in [0,1)$ is a hyperparameter. We design a re-weighting scheme that uses the effective number of samples for each class to re-balance the loss, thereby yielding a class-balanced loss. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on artificially induced long-tailed CIFAR datasets and large-scale datasets including ImageNet and iNaturalist. Our results show that when trained with the proposed class-balanced loss, the network is able to achieve significant performance gains on long-tailed datasets.
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