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We consider the problem of estimating the trace of a matrix function $f(A)$. In certain situations, in particular if $f(A)$ cannot be well approximated by a low-rank matrix, combining probing methods based on graph colorings with stochastic trace estimation techniques can yield accurate approximations at moderate cost. So far, such methods have not been thoroughly analyzed, though, but were rather used as efficient heuristics by practitioners. In this manuscript, we perform a detailed analysis of stochastic probing methods and, in particular, expose conditions under which the expected approximation error in the stochastic probing method scales more favorably with the dimension of the matrix than the error in non-stochastic probing. Extending results from [E. Aune, D. P. Simpson, J. Eidsvik, Parameter estimation in high dimensional Gaussian distributions, Stat. Comput., 24, pp. 247--263, 2014], we also characterize situations in which using just one stochastic vector is always -- not only in expectation -- better than the deterministic probing method. Several numerical experiments illustrate our theory and compare with existing methods.

A finite element discretization is developed for the Cai-Hu model, describing the formation of biological networks. The model consists of a non linear elliptic equation for the pressure $p$ and a non linear reaction-diffusion equation for the conductivity tensor $\mathbb{C}$. The problem requires high resolution due to the presence of multiple scales, the stiffness in all its components and the non linearities. We propose a low order finite element discretization in space coupled with a semi-implicit time advancing scheme. The code is {verified} with several numerical tests performed with various choices for the parameters involved in the system. In absence of the exact solution, we apply Richardson extrapolation technique to estimate the order of the method.

Making inference with spatial extremal dependence models can be computationally burdensome since they involve intractable and/or censored likelihoods. Building on recent advances in likelihood-free inference with neural Bayes estimators, that is, neural networks that approximate Bayes estimators, we develop highly efficient estimators for censored peaks-over-threshold models that encode censoring information in the neural network architecture. Our new method provides a paradigm shift that challenges traditional censored likelihood-based inference methods for spatial extremal dependence models. Our simulation studies highlight significant gains in both computational and statistical efficiency, relative to competing likelihood-based approaches, when applying our novel estimators to make inference with popular extremal dependence models, such as max-stable, $r$-Pareto, and random scale mixture process models. We also illustrate that it is possible to train a single neural Bayes estimator for a general censoring level, precluding the need to retrain the network when the censoring level is changed. We illustrate the efficacy of our estimators by making fast inference on hundreds-of-thousands of high-dimensional spatial extremal dependence models to assess extreme particulate matter 2.5 microns or less in diameter (PM2.5) concentration over the whole of Saudi Arabia.

Bayesian linear mixed-effects models and Bayesian ANOVA are increasingly being used in the cognitive sciences to perform null hypothesis tests, where a null hypothesis that an effect is zero is compared with an alternative hypothesis that the effect exists and is different from zero. While software tools for Bayes factor null hypothesis tests are easily accessible, how to specify the data and the model correctly is often not clear. In Bayesian approaches, many authors use data aggregation at the by-subject level and estimate Bayes factors on aggregated data. Here, we use simulation-based calibration for model inference applied to several example experimental designs to demonstrate that, as with frequentist analysis, such null hypothesis tests on aggregated data can be problematic in Bayesian analysis. Specifically, when random slope variances differ (i.e., violated sphericity assumption), Bayes factors are too conservative for contrasts where the variance is small and they are too liberal for contrasts where the variance is large. Running Bayesian ANOVA on aggregated data can - if the sphericity assumption is violated - likewise lead to biased Bayes factor results. Moreover, Bayes factors for by-subject aggregated data are biased (too liberal) when random item slope variance is present but ignored in the analysis. These problems can be circumvented or reduced by running Bayesian linear mixed-effects models on non-aggregated data such as on individual trials, and by explicitly modeling the full random effects structure. Reproducible code is available from \url{//osf.io/mjf47/}.

Deep learning methods are emerging as popular computational tools for solving forward and inverse problems in traffic flow. In this paper, we study a neural operator framework for learning solutions to nonlinear hyperbolic partial differential equations with applications in macroscopic traffic flow models. In this framework, an operator is trained to map heterogeneous and sparse traffic input data to the complete macroscopic traffic state in a supervised learning setting. We chose a physics-informed Fourier neural operator ($\pi$-FNO) as the operator, where an additional physics loss based on a discrete conservation law regularizes the problem during training to improve the shock predictions. We also propose to use training data generated from random piecewise constant input data to systematically capture the shock and rarefied solutions. From experiments using the LWR traffic flow model, we found superior accuracy in predicting the density dynamics of a ring-road network and urban signalized road. We also found that the operator can be trained using simple traffic density dynamics, e.g., consisting of $2-3$ vehicle queues and $1-2$ traffic signal cycles, and it can predict density dynamics for heterogeneous vehicle queue distributions and multiple traffic signal cycles $(\geq 2)$ with an acceptable error. The extrapolation error grew sub-linearly with input complexity for a proper choice of the model architecture and training data. Adding a physics regularizer aided in learning long-term traffic density dynamics, especially for problems with periodic boundary data.

It is a challenge to numerically solve nonlinear partial differential equations whose solution involves discontinuity. In the context of numerical simulators for multi-phase flow in porous media, there exists a long-standing issue known as Grid Orientation Effect (GOE), wherein different numerical solutions can be obtained when considering grids with different orientations under certain unfavorable conditions. Our perspective is that GOE arises due to numerical instability near displacement fronts, where spurious oscillations accompanied by sharp fronts, if not adequately suppressed, lead to GOE. To reduce or even eliminate GOE, we propose augmenting adaptive artificial viscosity when solving the saturation equation. It has been demonstrated that appropriate artificial viscosity can effectively reduce or even eliminate GOE. The proposed numerical method can be easily applied in practical engineering problems.

We present the full approximation scheme constraint decomposition (FASCD) multilevel method for solving variational inequalities (VIs). FASCD is a common extension of both the full approximation scheme (FAS) multigrid technique for nonlinear partial differential equations, due to A.~Brandt, and the constraint decomposition (CD) method introduced by X.-C.~Tai for VIs arising in optimization. We extend the CD idea by exploiting the telescoping nature of certain function space subset decompositions arising from multilevel mesh hierarchies. When a reduced-space (active set) Newton method is applied as a smoother, with work proportional to the number of unknowns on a given mesh level, FASCD V-cycles exhibit nearly mesh-independent convergence rates, and full multigrid cycles are optimal solvers. The example problems include differential operators which are symmetric linear, nonsymmetric linear, and nonlinear, in unilateral and bilateral VI problems.

Operator splitting is a popular divide-and-conquer strategy for solving differential equations. Typically, the right-hand side of the differential equation is split into a number of parts that are then integrated separately. Many methods are known that split the right-hand side into two parts. This approach is limiting, however, and there are situations when 3-splitting is more natural and ultimately more advantageous. The second-order Strang operator-splitting method readily generalizes to a right-hand side splitting into any number of operators. It is arguably the most popular method for 3-splitting because of its efficiency, ease of implementation, and intuitive nature. Other 3-splitting methods exist, but they are less well-known, and \rev{analysis and} evaluation of their performance in practice are scarce. We demonstrate the effectiveness of some alternative 3-split, second-order methods to Strang splitting on two problems: the reaction-diffusion Brusselator, which can be split into three parts that each have closed-form solutions, and the kinetic Vlasov--Poisson equations that is used in semi-Lagrangian plasma simulations. We find alternative second-order 3-operator-splitting methods that realize efficiency gains of 10\%--20\% over traditional Strang splitting. Our analysis for the practical assessment of efficiency of operator-splitting methods includes the computational cost of the integrators and can be used in method design.

We hypothesize that due to the greedy nature of learning in multi-modal deep neural networks, these models tend to rely on just one modality while under-fitting the other modalities. Such behavior is counter-intuitive and hurts the models' generalization, as we observe empirically. To estimate the model's dependence on each modality, we compute the gain on the accuracy when the model has access to it in addition to another modality. We refer to this gain as the conditional utilization rate. In the experiments, we consistently observe an imbalance in conditional utilization rates between modalities, across multiple tasks and architectures. Since conditional utilization rate cannot be computed efficiently during training, we introduce a proxy for it based on the pace at which the model learns from each modality, which we refer to as the conditional learning speed. We propose an algorithm to balance the conditional learning speeds between modalities during training and demonstrate that it indeed addresses the issue of greedy learning. The proposed algorithm improves the model's generalization on three datasets: Colored MNIST, Princeton ModelNet40, and NVIDIA Dynamic Hand Gesture.

The remarkable practical success of deep learning has revealed some major surprises from a theoretical perspective. In particular, simple gradient methods easily find near-optimal solutions to non-convex optimization problems, and despite giving a near-perfect fit to training data without any explicit effort to control model complexity, these methods exhibit excellent predictive accuracy. We conjecture that specific principles underlie these phenomena: that overparametrization allows gradient methods to find interpolating solutions, that these methods implicitly impose regularization, and that overparametrization leads to benign overfitting. We survey recent theoretical progress that provides examples illustrating these principles in simpler settings. We first review classical uniform convergence results and why they fall short of explaining aspects of the behavior of deep learning methods. We give examples of implicit regularization in simple settings, where gradient methods lead to minimal norm functions that perfectly fit the training data. Then we review prediction methods that exhibit benign overfitting, focusing on regression problems with quadratic loss. For these methods, we can decompose the prediction rule into a simple component that is useful for prediction and a spiky component that is useful for overfitting but, in a favorable setting, does not harm prediction accuracy. We focus specifically on the linear regime for neural networks, where the network can be approximated by a linear model. In this regime, we demonstrate the success of gradient flow, and we consider benign overfitting with two-layer networks, giving an exact asymptotic analysis that precisely demonstrates the impact of overparametrization. We conclude by highlighting the key challenges that arise in extending these insights to realistic deep learning settings.