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We propose a novel pipeline for the generation of synthetic images via Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPMs) guided by cardiac ultrasound semantic label maps. We show that these synthetic images can serve as a viable substitute for real data in the training of deep-learning models for medical image analysis tasks such as image segmentation. To demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach, we generated synthetic 2D echocardiography images and trained a neural network for segmentation of the left ventricle and left atrium. The performance of the network trained on exclusively synthetic images was evaluated on an unseen dataset of real images and yielded mean Dice scores of 88.5 $\pm 6.0$ , 92.3 $\pm 3.9$, 86.3 $\pm 10.7$ \% for left ventricular endocardial, epicardial and left atrial segmentation respectively. This represents an increase of $9.09$, $3.7$ and $15.0$ \% in Dice scores compared to the previous state-of-the-art. The proposed pipeline has the potential for application to a wide range of other tasks across various medical imaging modalities.

Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are integrated into many devices. However, civilian GNSS signals are usually not cryptographically protected. This makes attacks that forge signals relatively easy. Considering modern devices often have network connections and onboard sensors, the proposed here Probabilistic Detection of GNSS Spoofing (PDS) scheme is based on such opportunistic information. PDS has at its core two parts. First, a regression problem with motion model constraints, which equalizes the noise of all locations considering the motion model of the device. Second, a Gaussian process, that analyzes statistical properties of location data to construct uncertainty. Then, a likelihood function, that fuses the two parts, as a basis for a Neyman-Pearson lemma (NPL)-based detection strategy. Our experimental evaluation shows a performance gain over the state-of-the-art, in terms of attack detection effectiveness.

Randomized smoothing is a technique for providing provable robustness guarantees against adversarial attacks while making minimal assumptions about a classifier. This method relies on taking a majority vote of any base classifier over multiple noise-perturbed inputs to obtain a smoothed classifier, and it remains the tool of choice to certify deep and complex neural network models. Nonetheless, non-trivial performance of such smoothed classifier crucially depends on the base model being trained on noise-augmented data, i.e., on a smoothed input distribution. While widely adopted in practice, it is still unclear how this noisy training of the base classifier precisely affects the risk of the robust smoothed classifier, leading to heuristics and tricks that are poorly understood. In this work we analyze these trade-offs theoretically in a binary classification setting, proving that these common observations are not universal. We show that, without making stronger distributional assumptions, no benefit can be expected from predictors trained with noise-augmentation, and we further characterize distributions where such benefit is obtained. Our analysis has direct implications to the practical deployment of randomized smoothing, and we illustrate some of these via experiments on CIFAR-10 and MNIST, as well as on synthetic datasets.

Model independent techniques for constructing background data templates using generative models have shown great promise for use in searches for new physics processes at the LHC. We introduce a major improvement to the CURTAINs method by training the conditional normalizing flow between two side-band regions using maximum likelihood estimation instead of an optimal transport loss. The new training objective improves the robustness and fidelity of the transformed data and is much faster and easier to train. We compare the performance against the previous approach and the current state of the art using the LHC Olympics anomaly detection dataset, where we see a significant improvement in sensitivity over the original CURTAINs method. Furthermore, CURTAINsF4F requires substantially less computational resources to cover a large number of signal regions than other fully data driven approaches. When using an efficient configuration, an order of magnitude more models can be trained in the same time required for ten signal regions, without a significant drop in performance.

Selective inference is the problem of giving valid answers to statistical questions chosen in a data-driven manner. A standard solution to selective inference is simultaneous inference, which delivers valid answers to the set of all questions that could possibly have been asked. However, simultaneous inference can be unnecessarily conservative if this set includes many questions that were unlikely to be asked in the first place. We introduce a less conservative solution to selective inference that we call locally simultaneous inference, which only answers those questions that could plausibly have been asked in light of the observed data, all the while preserving rigorous type I error guarantees. For example, if the objective is to construct a confidence interval for the "winning" treatment effect in a clinical trial with multiple treatments, and it is obvious in hindsight that only one treatment had a chance to win, then our approach will return an interval that is nearly the same as the uncorrected, standard interval. Under mild conditions satisfied by common confidence intervals, locally simultaneous inference strictly dominates simultaneous inference, meaning it can never yield less statistical power but only more. Compared to conditional selective inference, which demands stronger guarantees, locally simultaneous inference is more easily applicable in nonparametric settings and is more numerically stable.

The heavy-tailed behavior of the generalized extreme-value distribution makes it a popular choice for modeling extreme events such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, etc. However, estimating the distribution's parameters using conventional maximum likelihood methods can be computationally intensive, even for moderate-sized datasets. To overcome this limitation, we propose a computationally efficient, likelihood-free estimation method utilizing a neural network. Through an extensive simulation study, we demonstrate that the proposed neural network-based method provides Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution parameter estimates with comparable accuracy to the conventional maximum likelihood method but with a significant computational speedup. To account for estimation uncertainty, we utilize parametric bootstrapping, which is inherent in the trained network. Finally, we apply this method to 1000-year annual maximum temperature data from the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) across North America for three atmospheric concentrations: 289 ppm $\mathrm{CO}_2$ (pre-industrial), 700 ppm $\mathrm{CO}_2$ (future conditions), and 1400 ppm $\mathrm{CO}_2$, and compare the results with those obtained using the maximum likelihood approach.

Most existing studies on linear bandits focus on the one-dimensional characterization of the overall system. While being representative, this formulation may fail to model applications with high-dimensional but favorable structures, such as the low-rank tensor representation for recommender systems. To address this limitation, this work studies a general tensor bandits model, where actions and system parameters are represented by tensors as opposed to vectors, and we particularly focus on the case that the unknown system tensor is low-rank. A novel bandit algorithm, coined TOFU (Tensor Optimism in the Face of Uncertainty), is developed. TOFU first leverages flexible tensor regression techniques to estimate low-dimensional subspaces associated with the system tensor. These estimates are then utilized to convert the original problem to a new one with norm constraints on its system parameters. Lastly, a norm-constrained bandit subroutine is adopted by TOFU, which utilizes these constraints to avoid exploring the entire high-dimensional parameter space. Theoretical analyses show that TOFU improves the best-known regret upper bound by a multiplicative factor that grows exponentially in the system order. A novel performance lower bound is also established, which further corroborates the efficiency of TOFU.

We present CausalSim, a causal framework for unbiased trace-driven simulation. Current trace-driven simulators assume that the interventions being simulated (e.g., a new algorithm) would not affect the validity of the traces. However, real-world traces are often biased by the choices algorithms make during trace collection, and hence replaying traces under an intervention may lead to incorrect results. CausalSim addresses this challenge by learning a causal model of the system dynamics and latent factors capturing the underlying system conditions during trace collection. It learns these models using an initial randomized control trial (RCT) under a fixed set of algorithms, and then applies them to remove biases from trace data when simulating new algorithms. Key to CausalSim is mapping unbiased trace-driven simulation to a tensor completion problem with extremely sparse observations. By exploiting a basic distributional invariance property present in RCT data, CausalSim enables a novel tensor completion method despite the sparsity of observations. Our extensive evaluation of CausalSim on both real and synthetic datasets, including more than ten months of real data from the Puffer video streaming system shows it improves simulation accuracy, reducing errors by 53% and 61% on average compared to expert-designed and supervised learning baselines. Moreover, CausalSim provides markedly different insights about ABR algorithms compared to the biased baseline simulator, which we validate with a real deployment.

We generalize several propositional preprocessing techniques to higher-order logic, building on existing first-order generalizations. These techniques eliminate literals, clauses, or predicate symbols from the problem, with the aim of making it more amenable to automatic proof search. We also introduce a new technique, which we call quasipure literal elimination, that strictly subsumes pure literal elimination. The new techniques are implemented in the Zipperposition theorem prover. Our evaluation shows that they sometimes help prove problems originating from Isabelle formalizations and the TPTP library.

Many current applications use recommendations in order to modify the natural user behavior, such as to increase the number of sales or the time spent on a website. This results in a gap between the final recommendation objective and the classical setup where recommendation candidates are evaluated by their coherence with past user behavior, by predicting either the missing entries in the user-item matrix, or the most likely next event. To bridge this gap, we optimize a recommendation policy for the task of increasing the desired outcome versus the organic user behavior. We show this is equivalent to learning to predict recommendation outcomes under a fully random recommendation policy. To this end, we propose a new domain adaptation algorithm that learns from logged data containing outcomes from a biased recommendation policy and predicts recommendation outcomes according to random exposure. We compare our method against state-of-the-art factorization methods, in addition to new approaches of causal recommendation and show significant improvements.