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Understanding dynamics in complex systems is challenging because there are many degrees of freedom, and those that are most important for describing events of interest are often not obvious. The leading eigenfunctions of the transition operator are useful for visualization, and they can provide an efficient basis for computing statistics such as the likelihood and average time of events (predictions). Here we develop inexact iterative linear algebra methods for computing these eigenfunctions (spectral estimation) and making predictions from a data set of short trajectories sampled at finite intervals. We demonstrate the methods on a low-dimensional model that facilitates visualization and a high-dimensional model of a biomolecular system. Implications for the prediction problem in reinforcement learning are discussed.

Permutation synchronization is an important problem in computer science that constitutes the key step of many computer vision tasks. The goal is to recover $n$ latent permutations from their noisy and incomplete pairwise measurements. In recent years, spectral methods have gained increasing popularity thanks to their simplicity and computational efficiency. Spectral methods utilize the leading eigenspace $U$ of the data matrix and its block submatrices $U_1,U_2,\ldots, U_n$ to recover the permutations. In this paper, we propose a novel and statistically optimal spectral algorithm. Unlike the existing methods which use $\{U_jU_1^\top\}_{j\geq 2}$, ours constructs an anchor matrix $M$ by aggregating useful information from all the block submatrices and estimates the latent permutations through $\{U_jM^\top\}_{j\geq 1}$. This modification overcomes a crucial limitation of the existing methods caused by the repetitive use of $U_1$ and leads to an improved numerical performance. To establish the optimality of the proposed method, we carry out a fine-grained spectral analysis and obtain a sharp exponential error bound that matches the minimax rate.

The paper focuses on a new error analysis of a class of mixed FEMs for stationary incompressible magnetohydrodynamics with the standard inf-sup stable velocity-pressure space pairs to Navier-Stokes equations and the N\'ed\'elec's edge element for the magnetic field. The methods have been widely used in various numerical simulations in the last several decades, while the existing analysis is not optimal due to the strong coupling of system and the pollution of the lower-order N\'ed\'elec's edge approximation in analysis. In terms of a newly modified Maxwell projection we establish new and optimal error estimates. In particular, we prove that the method based on the commonly-used Taylor-Hood/lowest-order N\'ed\'elec's edge element is efficient and the method provides the second-order accuracy for numerical velocity. Two numerical examples for the problem in both convex and nonconvex polygonal domains are presented. Numerical results confirm our theoretical analysis.

We develop an optimization-based algorithm for parametric model order reduction (PMOR) of linear time-invariant dynamical systems. Our method aims at minimizing the $\mathcal{H}_\infty \otimes \mathcal{L}_\infty$ approximation error in the frequency and parameter domain by an optimization of the reduced order model (ROM) matrices. State-of-the-art PMOR methods often compute several nonparametric ROMs for different parameter samples, which are then combined to a single parametric ROM. However, these parametric ROMs can have a low accuracy between the utilized sample points. In contrast, our optimization-based PMOR method minimizes the approximation error across the entire parameter domain. Moreover, due to our flexible approach of optimizing the system matrices directly, we can enforce favorable features such as a port-Hamiltonian structure in our ROMs across the entire parameter domain. Our method is an extension of the recently developed SOBMOR-algorithm to parametric systems. We extend both the ROM parameterization and the adaptive sampling procedure to the parametric case. Several numerical examples demonstrate the effectiveness and high accuracy of our method in a comparison with other PMOR methods.

We consider the problem of state estimation from $m$ linear measurements, where the state $u$ to recover is an element of the manifold $\mathcal{M}$ of solutions of a parameter-dependent equation. The state is estimated using a prior knowledge on $\mathcal{M}$ coming from model order reduction. Variational approaches based on linear approximation of $\mathcal{M}$, such as PBDW, yields a recovery error limited by the Kolmogorov $m$-width of $\mathcal{M}$. To overcome this issue, piecewise-affine approximations of $\mathcal{M}$ have also be considered, that consist in using a library of linear spaces among which one is selected by minimizing some distance to $\mathcal{M}$. In this paper, we propose a state estimation method relying on dictionary-based model reduction, where a space is selected from a library generated by a dictionary of snapshots, using a distance to the manifold. The selection is performed among a set of candidate spaces obtained from the path of a $\ell_1$-regularized least-squares problem. Then, in the framework of parameter-dependent operator equations (or PDEs) with affine parameterizations, we provide an efficient offline-online decomposition based on randomized linear algebra, that ensures efficient and stable computations while preserving theoretical guarantees.

We consider network games where a large number of agents interact according to a network sampled from a random network model, represented by a graphon. By exploiting previous results on convergence of such large network games to graphon games, we examine a procedure for estimating unknown payoff parameters, from observations of equilibrium actions, without the need for exact network information. We prove smoothness and local convexity of the optimization problem involved in computing the proposed estimator. Additionally, under a notion of graphon parameter identifiability, we show that the optimal estimator is globally unique. We present several examples of identifiable homogeneous and heterogeneous parameters in different classes of linear quadratic network games with numerical simulations to validate the proposed estimator.

Blind source separation (BSS) aims to recover an unobserved signal $S$ from its mixture $X=f(S)$ under the condition that the effecting transformation $f$ is invertible but unknown. As this is a basic problem with many practical applications, a fundamental issue is to understand how the solutions to this problem behave when their supporting statistical prior assumptions are violated. In the classical context of linear mixtures, we present a general framework for analysing such violations and quantifying their impact on the blind recovery of $S$ from $X$. Modelling $S$ as a multidimensional stochastic process, we introduce an informative topology on the space of possible causes underlying a mixture $X$, and show that the behaviour of a generic BSS-solution in response to general deviations from its defining structural assumptions can be profitably analysed in the form of explicit continuity guarantees with respect to this topology. This allows for a flexible and convenient quantification of general model uncertainty scenarios and amounts to the first comprehensive robustness framework for BSS. Our approach is entirely constructive, and we demonstrate its utility with novel theoretical guarantees for a number of statistical applications.

Nonlinearity parameter tomography leads to the problem of identifying a coefficient in a nonlinear wave equation (such as the Westervelt equation) modeling ultrasound propagation. In this paper we transfer this into frequency domain, where the Westervelt equation gets replaced by a coupled system of Helmholtz equations with quadratic nonlinearities. For the case of the to-be-determined nonlinearity coefficient being a characteristic function of an unknown, not necessarily connected domain $D$, we devise and test a reconstruction algorithm based on weighted point source approximations combined with Newton's method. In a more abstract setting, convergence of a regularised Newton type method for this inverse problem is proven by verifying a range invariance condition of the forward operator and establishing injectivity of its linearisation.

Selection of covariates is crucial in the estimation of average treatment effects given observational data with high or even ultra-high dimensional pretreatment variables. Existing methods for this problem typically assume sparse linear models for both outcome and univariate treatment, and cannot handle situations with ultra-high dimensional covariates. In this paper, we propose a new covariate selection strategy called double screening prior adaptive lasso (DSPAL) to select confounders and predictors of the outcome for multivariate treatments, which combines the adaptive lasso method with the marginal conditional (in)dependence prior information to select target covariates, in order to eliminate confounding bias and improve statistical efficiency. The distinctive features of our proposal are that it can be applied to high-dimensional or even ultra-high dimensional covariates for multivariate treatments, and can deal with the cases of both parametric and nonparametric outcome models, which makes it more robust compared to other methods. Our theoretical analyses show that the proposed procedure enjoys the sure screening property, the ranking consistency property and the variable selection consistency. Through a simulation study, we demonstrate that the proposed approach selects all confounders and predictors consistently and estimates the multivariate treatment effects with smaller bias and mean squared error compared to several alternatives under various scenarios. In real data analysis, the method is applied to estimate the causal effect of a three-dimensional continuous environmental treatment on cholesterol level and enlightening results are obtained.

Multivariate time series forecasting is extensively studied throughout the years with ubiquitous applications in areas such as finance, traffic, environment, etc. Still, concerns have been raised on traditional methods for incapable of modeling complex patterns or dependencies lying in real word data. To address such concerns, various deep learning models, mainly Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based methods, are proposed. Nevertheless, capturing extremely long-term patterns while effectively incorporating information from other variables remains a challenge for time-series forecasting. Furthermore, lack-of-explainability remains one serious drawback for deep neural network models. Inspired by Memory Network proposed for solving the question-answering task, we propose a deep learning based model named Memory Time-series network (MTNet) for time series forecasting. MTNet consists of a large memory component, three separate encoders, and an autoregressive component to train jointly. Additionally, the attention mechanism designed enable MTNet to be highly interpretable. We can easily tell which part of the historic data is referenced the most.