Pricing insurance for risks associated with information technology systems presents a complex modelling challenge, combining the disciplines of operations management, security, and economics. This work proposes a socioeconomic model for cyber-insurance decisions compromised of entity relationship diagrams, security maturity models, and economic models, addressing a long-standing research challenge of capturing organizational structure in the design and pricing of cyber-insurance policies. Insurance pricing is usually informed by the long experience insurance companies have of the magnitude and frequency of losses that arise in organizations based on their size, industry sector, and location. Consequently, their calculations of premia will start from a baseline determined by these considerations. A unique challenge of cyber-insurance is that data history is limited and not necessarily informative of future loss risk meaning that established actuarial methodology for other lines of insurance may not be the optimal pricing strategy. The model proposed in this paper provides a vehicle for agreement between practitioners in the cyber-insurance ecosystem on cyber-security risks and allows for the users to choose their desired level of abstraction in the description of a system.
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Identifying parameters of computational models from experimental data, or model calibration, is fundamental for assessing and improving the predictability and reliability of computer simulations. In this work, we propose a method for Bayesian calibration of models that predict morphological patterns of diblock copolymer (Di-BCP) thin film self-assembly while accounting for various sources of uncertainties in pattern formation and data acquisition. This method extracts the azimuthally-averaged power spectrum (AAPS) of the top-down microscopy characterization of Di-BCP thin film patterns as summary statistics for Bayesian inference of model parameters via the pseudo-marginal method. We derive the analytical and approximate form of a conditional likelihood for the AAPS of image data. We demonstrate that AAPS-based image data reduction retains the mutual information, particularly on important length scales, between image data and model parameters while being relatively agnostic to the aleatoric uncertainties associated with the random long-range disorder of Di-BCP patterns. Additionally, we propose a phase-informed prior distribution for Bayesian model calibration. Furthermore, reducing image data to AAPS enables us to efficiently build surrogate models to accelerate the proposed Bayesian model calibration procedure. We present the formulation and training of two multi-layer perceptrons for approximating the parameter-to-spectrum map, which enables fast integrated likelihood evaluations. We validate the proposed Bayesian model calibration method through numerical examples, for which the neural network surrogate delivers a fivefold reduction of the number of model simulations performed for a single calibration task.
We used survival analysis to quantify the impact of postdischarge evaluation and management (E/M) services in preventing hospital readmission or death. Our approach avoids a specific pitfall of applying machine learning to this problem, which is an inflated estimate of the effect of interventions, due to survivors bias -- where the magnitude of inflation may be conditional on heterogeneous confounders in the population. This bias arises simply because in order to receive an intervention after discharge, a person must not have been readmitted in the intervening period. After deriving an expression for this phantom effect, we controlled for this and other biases within an inherently interpretable Bayesian survival framework. We identified case management services as being the most impactful for reducing readmissions overall.
Linear regression and classification models with repeated functional data are considered. For each statistical unit in the sample, a real-valued parameter is observed over time under different conditions. Two regression models based on fusion penalties are presented. The first one is a generalization of the variable fusion model based on the 1-nearest neighbor. The second one, called group fusion lasso, assumes some grouping structure of conditions and allows for homogeneity among the regression coefficient functions within groups. A finite sample numerical simulation and an application on EEG data are presented.
In this work, we address parametric non-stationary fluid dynamics problems within a model order reduction setting based on domain decomposition. Starting from the domain decomposition approach, we derive an optimal control problem, for which we present the convergence analysis. The snapshots for the high-fidelity model are obtained with the Finite Element discretisation, and the model order reduction is then proposed both in terms of time and physical parameters, with a standard POD-Galerkin projection. We test the proposed methodology on two fluid dynamics benchmarks: the non-stationary backward-facing step and lid-driven cavity flow. Finally, also in view of future works, we compare the intrusive POD--Galerkin approach with a non--intrusive approach based on Neural Networks.
In order to fully harness the potential of dielectric elastomer actu-ators (DEAs) in soft robots, advanced control methods are need-ed. An important groundwork for this is the development of a control-oriented model that can adequately describe the underly-ing dynamics of a DEA. A common feature of existing models is that always custom-made DEAs were investigated. This makes the modelling process easier, as all specifications and the struc-ture of the actuator are well known. In the case of a commercial actuator, however, only the information from the manufacturer is available and must be checked or completed during the modelling process. The aim of this paper is to explore how a commercial stacked silicone-based DEA can be modelled and how complex the model should be to properly replicate the features of the actu-ator. The static description has demonstrated the suitability of Hooke's law. In the case of dynamic description, it is shown that no viscoelastic model is needed for control-oriented modelling. However, if all features of the DEA are considered, the general-ized Kelvin-Maxwell model with three Maxwell elements shows good results, stability and computational efficiency.
Mesh-based simulations play a key role when modeling complex physical systems that, in many disciplines across science and engineering, require the solution of parametrized time-dependent nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs). In this context, full order models (FOMs), such as those relying on the finite element method, can reach high levels of accuracy, however often yielding intensive simulations to run. For this reason, surrogate models are developed to replace computationally expensive solvers with more efficient ones, which can strike favorable trade-offs between accuracy and efficiency. This work explores the potential usage of graph neural networks (GNNs) for the simulation of time-dependent PDEs in the presence of geometrical variability. In particular, we propose a systematic strategy to build surrogate models based on a data-driven time-stepping scheme where a GNN architecture is used to efficiently evolve the system. With respect to the majority of surrogate models, the proposed approach stands out for its ability of tackling problems with parameter dependent spatial domains, while simultaneously generalizing to different geometries and mesh resolutions. We assess the effectiveness of the proposed approach through a series of numerical experiments, involving both two- and three-dimensional problems, showing that GNNs can provide a valid alternative to traditional surrogate models in terms of computational efficiency and generalization to new scenarios. We also assess, from a numerical standpoint, the importance of using GNNs, rather than classical dense deep neural networks, for the proposed framework.
Navigating automated driving systems (ADSs) through complex driving environments is difficult. Predicting the driving behavior of surrounding human-driven vehicles (HDVs) is a critical component of an ADS. This paper proposes an enhanced motion-planning approach for an ADS in a highway-merging scenario. The proposed enhanced approach utilizes the results of two aspects: the driving behavior and long-term trajectory of surrounding HDVs, which are coupled using a hierarchical model that is used for the motion planning of an ADS to improve driving safety.
We present Surjective Sequential Neural Likelihood (SSNL) estimation, a novel method for simulation-based inference in models where the evaluation of the likelihood function is not tractable and only a simulator that can generate synthetic data is available. SSNL fits a dimensionality-reducing surjective normalizing flow model and uses it as a surrogate likelihood function which allows for conventional Bayesian inference using either Markov chain Monte Carlo methods or variational inference. By embedding the data in a low-dimensional space, SSNL solves several issues previous likelihood-based methods had when applied to high-dimensional data sets that, for instance, contain non-informative data dimensions or lie along a lower-dimensional manifold. We evaluate SSNL on a wide variety of experiments and show that it generally outperforms contemporary methods used in simulation-based inference, for instance, on a challenging real-world example from astrophysics which models the magnetic field strength of the sun using a solar dynamo model.
Developing an efficient computational scheme for high-dimensional Bayesian variable selection in generalised linear models and survival models has always been a challenging problem due to the absence of closed-form solutions for the marginal likelihood. The RJMCMC approach can be employed to samples model and coefficients jointly, but effective design of the transdimensional jumps of RJMCMC can be challenge, making it hard to implement. Alternatively, the marginal likelihood can be derived using data-augmentation scheme e.g. Polya-gamma data argumentation for logistic regression) or through other estimation methods. However, suitable data-augmentation schemes are not available for every generalised linear and survival models, and using estimations such as Laplace approximation or correlated pseudo-marginal to derive marginal likelihood within a locally informed proposal can be computationally expensive in the "large n, large p" settings. In this paper, three main contributions are presented. Firstly, we present an extended Point-wise implementation of Adaptive Random Neighbourhood Informed proposal (PARNI) to efficiently sample models directly from the marginal posterior distribution in both generalised linear models and survival models. Secondly, in the light of the approximate Laplace approximation, we also describe an efficient and accurate estimation method for the marginal likelihood which involves adaptive parameters. Additionally, we describe a new method to adapt the algorithmic tuning parameters of the PARNI proposal by replacing the Rao-Blackwellised estimates with the combination of a warm-start estimate and an ergodic average. We present numerous numerical results from simulated data and 8 high-dimensional gene fine mapping data-sets to showcase the efficiency of the novel PARNI proposal compared to the baseline add-delete-swap proposal.
This paper presents DeepTSF, a comprehensive machine learning operations (MLOps) framework aiming to innovate time series forecasting through workflow automation and codeless modeling. DeepTSF automates key aspects of the ML lifecycle, making it an ideal tool for data scientists and MLops engineers engaged in machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL)-based forecasting. DeepTSF empowers users with a robust and user-friendly solution, while it is designed to seamlessly integrate with existing data analysis workflows, providing enhanced productivity and compatibility. The framework offers a front-end user interface (UI) suitable for data scientists, as well as other higher-level stakeholders, enabling comprehensive understanding through insightful visualizations and evaluation metrics. DeepTSF also prioritizes security through identity management and access authorization mechanisms. The application of DeepTSF in real-life use cases of the I-NERGY project has already proven DeepTSF's efficacy in DL-based load forecasting, showcasing its significant added value in the electrical power and energy systems domain.
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