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Municipalities are vulnerable to cyberattacks with devastating consequences, but they lack key information to evaluate their own risk and compare their security posture to peers. Using data from 83 municipalities collected via a cryptographically secure computation platform about their security posture, incidents, security control failures, and losses, we build data-driven cyber risk models and cyber security benchmarks for municipalities. We produce benchmarks of the security posture in a sector, the frequency of cyber incidents, forecasted annual losses for organizations based on their defensive posture, and a weighting of cyber controls based on their individual failure rates and associated losses. Combined, these four items can help guide cyber policymaking by quantifying the cyber risk in a sector, identifying gaps that need to be addressed, prioritizing policy interventions, and tracking progress of those interventions over time. In the case of the municipalities, these newly derived risk measures highlight the need for continuous measured improvement of cybersecurity readiness, show clear areas of weakness and strength, and provide governments with some early targets for policy focus such as security education, incident response, and focusing efforts first on municipalities at the lowest security levels that have the highest risk reduction per security dollar invested.

We develop an anytime-valid permutation test, where the dataset is fixed and the permutations are sampled sequentially one by one, with the objective of saving computational resources by sampling fewer permutations and stopping early. The core technical advance is the development of new test martingales (nonnegative martingales with initial value one) for testing exchangeability against a very particular alternative. These test martingales are constructed using new and simple betting strategies that smartly bet on the relative ranks of permuted test statistics. The betting strategies are guided by the derivation of a simple log-optimal betting strategy, and display excellent power in practice. In contrast to a well-known method by Besag and Clifford, our method yields a valid e-value or a p-value at any stopping time, and with particular stopping rules, it yields computational gains under both the null and the alternative without compromising power.

For a sequence of random structures with $n$-element domains over a relational signature, we define its first order (FO) complexity as a certain subset in the Banach space $\ell^{\infty}/c_0$. The well-known FO zero-one law and FO convergence law correspond to FO complexities equal to $\{0,1\}$ and a subset of $\mathbb{R}$, respectively. We present a hierarchy of FO complexity classes, introduce a stochastic FO reduction that allows to transfer complexity results between different random structures, and deduce using this tool several new logical limit laws for binomial random structures. Finally, we introduce a conditional distribution on graphs, subject to a FO sentence $\varphi$, that generalises certain well-known random graph models, show instances of this distribution for every complexity class, and prove that the set of all $\varphi$ validating 0--1 law is not recursively enumerable.

The joint bidiagonalization (JBD) process iteratively reduces a matrix pair $\{A,L\}$ to two bidiagonal forms simultaneously, which can be used for computing a partial generalized singular value decomposition (GSVD) of $\{A,L\}$. The process has a nested inner-outer iteration structure, where the inner iteration usually can not be computed exactly. In this paper, we study the inaccurately computed inner iterations of JBD by first investigating influence of computational error of the inner iteration on the outer iteration, and then proposing a reorthogonalized JBD (rJBD) process to keep orthogonality of a part of Lanczos vectors. An error analysis of the rJBD is carried out to build up connections with Lanczos bidiagonalizations. The results are then used to investigate convergence and accuracy of the rJBD based GSVD computation. It is shown that the accuracy of computed GSVD components depend on the computing accuracy of inner iterations and condition number of $(A^T,L^T)^T$ while the convergence rate is not affected very much. For practical JBD based GSVD computations, our results can provide a guideline for choosing a proper computing accuracy of inner iterations in order to obtain approximate GSVD components with a desired accuracy. Numerical experiments are made to confirm our theoretical results.

A Gaussian process is proposed as a model for the posterior distribution of the local predictive ability of a model or expert, conditional on a vec- tor of covariates, from historical predictions in the form of log predictive scores. Assuming Gaussian expert predictions and a Gaussian data generat- ing process, a linear transformation of the predictive score follows a noncen- tral chi-squared distribution with one degree of freedom. Motivated by this we develop a non-central chi-squared Gaussian process regression to flexibly model local predictive ability, with the posterior distribution of the latent GP function and kernel hyperparameters sampled by Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We show that a cube-root transformation of the log scores is approximately Gaussian with homoscedastic variance, which makes it possible to estimate the model much faster by marginalizing the latent GP function analytically. Linear pools based on learned local predictive ability are applied to predict daily bike usage in Washington DC.

In pure integer linear programming it is often desirable to work with polyhedra that are full-dimensional, and it is well known that it is possible to reduce any polyhedron to a full-dimensional one in polynomial time. More precisely, using the Hermite normal form, it is possible to map a non full-dimensional polyhedron to a full-dimensional isomorphic one in a lower-dimensional space, while preserving integer vectors. In this paper, we extend the above result simultaneously in two directions. First, we consider mixed integer vectors instead of integer vectors, by leveraging on the concept of "integer reflexive generalized inverse." Second, we replace polyhedra with convex quadratic sets, which are sets obtained from polyhedra by enforcing one additional convex quadratic inequality. We study structural properties of convex quadratic sets, and utilize them to obtain polynomial time algorithms to recognize full-dimensional convex quadratic sets, and to find an affine function that maps a non full-dimensional convex quadratic set to a full-dimensional isomorphic one in a lower-dimensional space, while preserving mixed integer vectors. We showcase the applicability and the potential impact of these results by showing that they can be used to prove that mixed integer convex quadratic programming is fixed parameter tractable with parameter the number of integer variables. Our algorithm unifies and extends the known polynomial time solvability of pure integer convex quadratic programming in fixed dimension and of convex quadratic programming.

Solving high dimensional partial differential equations (PDEs) has historically posed a considerable challenge when utilizing conventional numerical methods, such as those involving domain meshes. Recent advancements in the field have seen the emergence of neural PDE solvers, leveraging deep networks to effectively tackle high dimensional PDE problems. This study introduces Inf-SupNet, a model-based unsupervised learning approach designed to acquire solutions for a specific category of elliptic PDEs. The fundamental concept behind Inf-SupNet involves incorporating the inf-sup formulation of the underlying PDE into the loss function. The analysis reveals that the global solution error can be bounded by the sum of three distinct errors: the numerical integration error, the duality gap of the loss function (training error), and the neural network approximation error for functions within Sobolev spaces. To validate the efficacy of the proposed method, numerical experiments conducted in high dimensions demonstrate its stability and accuracy across various boundary conditions, as well as for both semi-linear and nonlinear PDEs.

A rectangulation is a decomposition of a rectangle into finitely many rectangles. Via natural equivalence relations, rectangulations can be seen as combinatorial objects with a rich structure, with links to lattice congruences, flip graphs, polytopes, lattice paths, Hopf algebras, etc. In this paper, we first revisit the structure of the respective equivalence classes: weak rectangulations that preserve rectangle-segment adjacencies, and strong rectangulations that preserve rectangle-rectangle adjacencies. We thoroughly investigate posets defined by adjacency in rectangulations of both kinds, and unify and simplify known bijections between rectangulations and permutation classes. This yields a uniform treatment of mappings between permutations and rectangulations that unifies the results from earlier contributions, and emphasizes parallelism and differences between the weak and the strong cases. Then, we consider the special case of guillotine rectangulations, and prove that they can be characterized - under all known mappings between permutations and rectangulations - by avoidance of two mesh patterns that correspond to "windmills" in rectangulations. This yields new permutation classes in bijection with weak guillotine rectangulations, and the first known permutation class in bijection with strong guillotine rectangulations. Finally, we address enumerative issues and prove asymptotic bounds for several families of strong rectangulations.

Forecasts for key macroeconomic variables are almost always made simultaneously by the same organizations, presented together, and used together in policy analyses and decision-makings. It is therefore important to know whether the forecasters are skillful enough to forecast the future values of those variables. Here a method for joint evaluation of skill in directional forecasts of multiple variables is introduced. The method is simple to use and does not rely on complicated assumptions required by the conventional statistical methods for measuring accuracy of directional forecast. The data on GDP growth and inflation forecasts of three organizations from Thailand, namely, the Bank of Thailand, the Fiscal Policy Office, and the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council as well as the actual data on GDP growth and inflation of Thailand between 2001 and 2021 are employed in order to demonstrate how the method could be used to evaluate the skills of forecasters in practice. The overall results indicate that these three organizations are somewhat skillful in forecasting the direction-of-changes of GDP growth and inflation when no band and a band of +/- 1 standard deviation of the forecasted outcome are considered. However, when a band of +/- 0.5% of the forecasted outcome is introduced, the skills in forecasting the direction-of-changes of GDP growth and inflation of these three organizations are, at best, little better than intelligent guess work.

Clusters of similar or dissimilar objects are encountered in many fields. Frequently used approaches treat the central object of each cluster as latent. Yet, often objects of one or more types cluster around objects of another type. Such arrangements are common in biomedical images of cells, in which nearby cell types likely interact. Quantifying spatial relationships may elucidate biological mechanisms. Parent-offspring statistical frameworks can be usefully applied even when central objects (parents) differ from peripheral ones (offspring). We propose the novel multivariate cluster point process (MCPP) to quantify multi-object (e.g., multi-cellular) arrangements. Unlike commonly used approaches, the MCPP exploits locations of the central parent object in clusters. It accounts for possibly multilayered, multivariate clustering. The model formulation requires specification of which object types function as cluster centers and which reside peripherally. If such information is unknown, the relative roles of object types may be explored by comparing fit of different models via the deviance information criterion (DIC). In simulated data, we compared DIC of a series of models; the MCPP correctly identified simulated relationships. It also produced more accurate and precise parameter estimates than the classical univariate Neyman-Scott process model. We also used the MCPP to quantify proposed configurations and explore new ones in human dental plaque biofilm image data. MCPP models quantified simultaneous clustering of Streptococcus and Porphyromonas around Corynebacterium and of Pasteurellaceae around Streptococcus and successfully captured hypothesized structures for all taxa. Further exploration suggested the presence of clustering between Fusobacterium and Leptotrichia, a previously unreported relationship.