Municipalities are vulnerable to cyberattacks with devastating consequences, but they lack key information to evaluate their own risk and compare their security posture to peers. Using data from 83 municipalities collected via a cryptographically secure computation platform about their security posture, incidents, security control failures, and losses, we build data-driven cyber risk models and cyber security benchmarks for municipalities. We produce benchmarks of the security posture in a sector, the frequency of cyber incidents, forecasted annual losses for organizations based on their defensive posture, and a weighting of cyber controls based on their individual failure rates and associated losses. Combined, these four items can help guide cyber policymaking by quantifying the cyber risk in a sector, identifying gaps that need to be addressed, prioritizing policy interventions, and tracking progress of those interventions over time. In the case of the municipalities, these newly derived risk measures highlight the need for continuous measured improvement of cybersecurity readiness, show clear areas of weakness and strength, and provide governments with some early targets for policy focus such as security education, incident response, and focusing efforts first on municipalities at the lowest security levels that have the highest risk reduction per security dollar invested.
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Accurate and precise climate projections are required for climate adaptation and mitigation, but Earth system models still exhibit great uncertainties. Several approaches have been developed to reduce the spread of climate projections and feedbacks, yet those methods cannot capture the non-linear complexity inherent in the climate system. Using a Transfer Learning approach, we show that Machine Learning can be used to optimally leverage and merge the knowledge gained from Earth system models simulations and historical observations to more accurately project global surface air temperature fields in the 21st century. We reach an uncertainty reduction of more than 50% with respect to state-of-the-art approaches. We give evidence that our novel method provides narrower projection uncertainty together with more accurate mean climate projections, urgently required for climate adaptation.
This work presents an abstract framework for the design, implementation, and analysis of the multiscale spectral generalized finite element method (MS-GFEM), a particular numerical multiscale method originally proposed in [I. Babuska and R. Lipton, Multiscale Model.\;\,Simul., 9 (2011), pp.~373--406]. MS-GFEM is a partition of unity method employing optimal local approximation spaces constructed from local spectral problems. We establish a general local approximation theory demonstrating exponential convergence with respect to local degrees of freedom under certain assumptions, with explicit dependence on key problem parameters. Our framework applies to a broad class of multiscale PDEs with $L^{\infty}$-coefficients in both continuous and discrete, finite element settings, including highly indefinite problems (convection-dominated diffusion, as well as the high-frequency Helmholtz, Maxwell and elastic wave equations with impedance boundary conditions), and higher-order problems. Notably, we prove a local convergence rate of $O(e^{-cn^{1/d}})$ for MS-GFEM for all these problems, improving upon the $O(e^{-cn^{1/(d+1)}})$ rate shown by Babuska and Lipton. Moreover, based on the abstract local approximation theory for MS-GFEM, we establish a unified framework for showing low-rank approximations to multiscale PDEs. This framework applies to the aforementioned problems, proving that the associated Green's functions admit an $O(|\log\epsilon|^{d})$-term separable approximation on well-separated domains with error $\epsilon>0$. Our analysis improves and generalizes the result in [M. Bebendorf and W. Hackbusch, Numerische Mathematik, 95 (2003), pp.~1-28] where an $O(|\log\epsilon|^{d+1})$-term separable approximation was proved for Poisson-type problems.
Generative diffusion models have achieved spectacular performance in many areas of generative modeling. While the fundamental ideas behind these models come from non-equilibrium physics, variational inference and stochastic calculus, in this paper we show that many aspects of these models can be understood using the tools of equilibrium statistical mechanics. Using this reformulation, we show that generative diffusion models undergo second-order phase transitions corresponding to symmetry breaking phenomena. We show that these phase-transitions are always in a mean-field universality class, as they are the result of a self-consistency condition in the generative dynamics. We argue that the critical instability that arises from the phase transitions lies at the heart of their generative capabilities, which are characterized by a set of mean field critical exponents. Furthermore, using the statistical physics of disordered systems, we show that memorization can be understood as a form of critical condensation corresponding to a disordered phase transition. Finally, we show that the dynamic equation of the generative process can be interpreted as a stochastic adiabatic transformation that minimizes the free energy while keeping the system in thermal equilibrium.
Regression models that incorporate smooth functions of predictor variables to explain the relationships with a response variable have gained widespread usage and proved successful in various applications. By incorporating smooth functions of predictor variables, these models can capture complex relationships between the response and predictors while still allowing for interpretation of the results. In situations where the relationships between a response variable and predictors are explored, it is not uncommon to assume that these relationships adhere to certain shape constraints. Examples of such constraints include monotonicity and convexity. The scam package for R has become a popular package to carry out the full fitting of exponential family generalized additive modelling with shape restrictions on smooths. The paper aims to extend the existing framework of shape-constrained generalized additive models (SCAM) to accommodate smooth interactions of covariates, linear functionals of shape-constrained smooths and incorporation of residual autocorrelation. The methods described in this paper are implemented in the recent version of the package scam, available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN).
Making use of a newly developed package in the computer algebra system SageMath, we show how to perform a full asymptotic analysis by means of the Mellin transform with explicit error bounds. As an application of the method, we answer a question of B\'ona and DeJonge on 132-avoiding permutations with a unique longest increasing subsequence that can be translated into an inequality for a certain binomial sum.
Bayesian graphical models are powerful tools to infer complex relationships in high dimension, yet are often fraught with computational and statistical challenges. If exploited in a principled way, the increasing information collected alongside the data of primary interest constitutes an opportunity to mitigate these difficulties by guiding the detection of dependence structures. For instance, gene network inference may be informed by the use of publicly available summary statistics on the regulation of genes by genetic variants. Here we present a novel Gaussian graphical modelling framework to identify and leverage information on the centrality of nodes in conditional independence graphs. Specifically, we consider a fully joint hierarchical model to simultaneously infer (i) sparse precision matrices and (ii) the relevance of node-level information for uncovering the sought-after network structure. We encode such information as candidate auxiliary variables using a spike-and-slab submodel on the propensity of nodes to be hubs, which allows hypothesis-free selection and interpretation of a sparse subset of relevant variables. As efficient exploration of large posterior spaces is needed for real-world applications, we develop a variational expectation conditional maximisation algorithm that scales inference to hundreds of samples, nodes and auxiliary variables. We illustrate and exploit the advantages of our approach in simulations and in a gene network study which identifies hub genes involved in biological pathways relevant to immune-mediated diseases.
Reconstructing a dynamic object with affine motion in computerized tomography (CT) leads to motion artifacts if the motion is not taken into account. In most cases, the actual motion is neither known nor can be determined easily. As a consequence, the respective model that describes CT is incomplete. The iterative RESESOP-Kaczmarz method can - under certain conditions and by exploiting the modeling error - reconstruct dynamic objects at different time points even if the exact motion is unknown. However, the method is very time-consuming. To speed the reconstruction process up and obtain better results, we combine the following three steps: 1. RESESOP-Kacmarz with only a few iterations is implemented to reconstruct the object at different time points. 2. The motion is estimated via landmark detection, e.g. using deep learning. 3. The estimated motion is integrated into the reconstruction process, allowing the use of dynamic filtered backprojection. We give a short review of all methods involved and present numerical results as a proof of principle.
The random batch method (RBM) proposed in [Jin et al., J. Comput. Phys., 400(2020), 108877] for large interacting particle systems is an efficient with linear complexity in particle numbers and highly scalable algorithm for $N$-particle interacting systems and their mean-field limits when $N$ is large. We consider in this work the quantitative error estimate of RBM toward its mean-field limit, the Fokker-Planck equation. Under mild assumptions, we obtain a uniform-in-time $O(\tau^2 + 1/N)$ bound on the scaled relative entropy between the joint law of the random batch particles and the tensorized law at the mean-field limit, where $\tau$ is the time step size and $N$ is the number of particles. Therefore, we improve the existing rate in discretization step size from $O(\sqrt{\tau})$ to $O(\tau)$ in terms of the Wasserstein distance.
Existing schemes for demonstrating quantum computational advantage are subject to various practical restrictions, including the hardness of verification and challenges in experimental implementation. Meanwhile, analog quantum simulators have been realized in many experiments to study novel physics. In this work, we propose a quantum advantage protocol based on single-step Feynman-Kitaev verification of an analog quantum simulation, in which the verifier need only run an $O(\lambda^2)$-time classical computation, and the prover need only prepare $O(1)$ samples of a history state and perform $O(\lambda^2)$ single-qubit measurements, for a security parameter $\lambda$. We also propose a near-term feasible strategy for honest provers and discuss potential experimental realizations.
In recent years, object detection has experienced impressive progress. Despite these improvements, there is still a significant gap in the performance between the detection of small and large objects. We analyze the current state-of-the-art model, Mask-RCNN, on a challenging dataset, MS COCO. We show that the overlap between small ground-truth objects and the predicted anchors is much lower than the expected IoU threshold. We conjecture this is due to two factors; (1) only a few images are containing small objects, and (2) small objects do not appear enough even within each image containing them. We thus propose to oversample those images with small objects and augment each of those images by copy-pasting small objects many times. It allows us to trade off the quality of the detector on large objects with that on small objects. We evaluate different pasting augmentation strategies, and ultimately, we achieve 9.7\% relative improvement on the instance segmentation and 7.1\% on the object detection of small objects, compared to the current state of the art method on MS COCO.
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