Prediction sets capture uncertainty by predicting sets of labels rather than individual labels, enabling downstream decisions to conservatively account for all plausible outcomes. Conformal inference algorithms construct prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with high probability. These guarantees fail to hold in the face of distribution shift, which is precisely when reliable uncertainty quantification can be most useful. We propose a novel algorithm for constructing prediction sets with PAC guarantees in the label shift setting. This method estimates the predicted probabilities of the classes in a target domain, as well as the confusion matrix, then propagates uncertainty in these estimates through a Gaussian elimination algorithm to compute confidence intervals for importance weights. Finally, it uses these intervals to construct prediction sets. We evaluate our approach on five datasets: the CIFAR-10, ChestX-Ray and Entity-13 image datasets, the tabular CDC Heart dataset, and the AGNews text dataset. Our algorithm satisfies the PAC guarantee while producing smaller, more informative, prediction sets compared to several baselines.
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Order is one of the main instruments to measure the relationship between objects in (empirical) data. However, compared to methods that use numerical properties of objects, the amount of ordinal methods developed is rather small. One reason for this is the limited availability of computational resources in the last century that would have been required for ordinal computations. Another reason -- particularly important for this line of research -- is that order-based methods are often seen as too mathematically rigorous for applying them to real-world data. In this paper, we will therefore discuss different means for measuring and 'calculating' with ordinal structures -- a specific class of directed graphs -- and show how to infer knowledge from them. Our aim is to establish Ordinal Data Science as a fundamentally new research agenda. Besides cross-fertilization with other cornerstone machine learning and knowledge representation methods, a broad range of disciplines will benefit from this endeavor, including, psychology, sociology, economics, web science, knowledge engineering, scientometrics.
Physicians write notes about patients. In doing so, they reveal much about themselves. Using data from 129,228 emergency room visits, we train a model to identify notes written by fatigued physicians -- those who worked 5 or more of the prior 7 days. In a hold-out set, the model accurately identifies notes written by these high-workload physicians, and also flags notes written in other high-fatigue settings: on overnight shifts, and after high patient volumes. Model predictions also correlate with worse decision-making on at least one important metric: yield of testing for heart attack is 18% lower with each standard deviation increase in model-predicted fatigue. Finally, the model indicates that notes written about Black and Hispanic patients have 12% and 21% higher predicted fatigue than Whites -- larger than overnight vs. daytime differences. These results have an important implication for large language models (LLMs). Our model indicates that fatigued doctors write more predictable notes. Perhaps unsurprisingly, because word prediction is the core of how LLMs work, we find that LLM-written notes have 17% higher predicted fatigue than real physicians' notes. This indicates that LLMs may introduce distortions in generated text that are not yet fully understood.
The Segment Anything Model (SAM) achieves remarkable promptable segmentation given high-quality prompts which, however, often require good skills to specify. To make SAM robust to casual prompts, this paper presents the first comprehensive analysis on SAM's segmentation stability across a diverse spectrum of prompt qualities, notably imprecise bounding boxes and insufficient points. Our key finding reveals that given such low-quality prompts, SAM's mask decoder tends to activate image features that are biased towards the background or confined to specific object parts. To mitigate this issue, our key idea consists of calibrating solely SAM's mask attention by adjusting the sampling locations and amplitudes of image features, while the original SAM model architecture and weights remain unchanged. Consequently, our deformable sampling plugin (DSP) enables SAM to adaptively shift attention to the prompted target regions in a data-driven manner, facilitated by our effective robust training strategy (RTS). During inference, dynamic routing plugin (DRP) is proposed that toggles SAM between the deformable and regular grid sampling modes, conditioned on the input prompt quality. Thus, our solution, termed Stable-SAM, offers several advantages: 1) improved SAM's segmentation stability across a wide range of prompt qualities, while 2) retaining SAM's powerful promptable segmentation efficiency and generality, with 3) minimal learnable parameters (0.08 M) and fast adaptation (by 1 training epoch). Extensive experiments across multiple datasets validate the effectiveness and advantages of our approach, underscoring Stable-SAM as a more robust solution for segmenting anything. Codes will be released upon acceptance. //github.com/fanq15/Stable-SAM
Recently emerged Topological Deep Learning (TDL) methods aim to extend current Graph Neural Networks (GNN) by naturally processing higher-order interactions, going beyond the pairwise relations and local neighborhoods defined by graph representations. In this paper we propose a novel TDL-based method for compressing signals over graphs, consisting in two main steps: first, disjoint sets of higher-order structures are inferred based on the original signal --by clustering $N$ datapoints into $K\ll N$ collections; then, a topological-inspired message passing gets a compressed representation of the signal within those multi-element sets. Our results show that our framework improves both standard GNN and feed-forward architectures in compressing temporal link-based signals from two real-word Internet Service Provider Networks' datasets --from $30\%$ up to $90\%$ better reconstruction errors across all evaluation scenarios--, suggesting that it better captures and exploits spatial and temporal correlations over the whole graph-based network structure.
Large-scale Text-to-Image (T2I) models have rapidly gained prominence across creative fields, generating visually compelling outputs from textual prompts. However, controlling these models to ensure consistent style remains challenging, with existing methods necessitating fine-tuning and manual intervention to disentangle content and style. In this paper, we introduce StyleAligned, a novel technique designed to establish style alignment among a series of generated images. By employing minimal `attention sharing' during the diffusion process, our method maintains style consistency across images within T2I models. This approach allows for the creation of style-consistent images using a reference style through a straightforward inversion operation. Our method's evaluation across diverse styles and text prompts demonstrates high-quality synthesis and fidelity, underscoring its efficacy in achieving consistent style across various inputs.
As Moore's Law continues to increase the complexity of electronic systems, Electronic Design Automation (EDA) must advance to meet global demand. An important example of an EDA technology is SKILL, a scripting language used to customize and extend EDA software. Recently, code generation models using the transformer architecture have achieved impressive results in academic settings and have even been used in commercial developer tools to improve developer productivity. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to apply transformers to SKILL code autocompletion towards improving the productivity of hardware design engineers. In this study, a novel, data-efficient methodology for generating SKILL code is proposed and experimentally validated. More specifically, we propose a novel methodology for (i) creating a high-quality SKILL dataset with both unlabeled and labeled data, (ii) a training strategy where T5 models pre-trained on general programming language code are fine-tuned on our custom SKILL dataset using unsupervised and supervised learning, and (iii) evaluating synthesized SKILL code. We show that models trained using the proposed methodology outperform baselines in terms of human-judgment score and BLEU score. A major challenge faced was the extremely small amount of available SKILL code data that can be used to train a transformer model to generate SKILL code. Despite our validated improvements, the extremely small dataset available to us was still not enough to train a model that can reliably autocomplete SKILL code. We discuss this and other limitations as well as future work that could address these limitations.
Recent language models generate false but plausible-sounding text with surprising frequency. Such "hallucinations" are an obstacle to the usability of language-based AI systems and can harm people who rely upon their outputs. This work shows shows that there is an inherent statistical lower-bound on the rate that pretrained language models hallucinate certain types of facts, having nothing to do with the transformer LM architecture or data quality. For "arbitrary" facts whose veracity cannot be determined from the training data, we show that hallucinations must occur at a certain rate for language models that satisfy a statistical calibration condition appropriate for generative language models. Specifically, if the maximum probability of any fact is bounded, we show that the probability of generating a hallucination is close to the fraction of facts that occur exactly once in the training data (a "Good-Turing" estimate), even assuming ideal training data without errors. One conclusion is that models pretrained to be sufficiently good predictors (i.e., calibrated) may require post-training to mitigate hallucinations on the type of arbitrary facts that tend to appear once in the training set. However, our analysis also suggests that there is no statistical reason that pretraining will lead to hallucination on facts that tend to appear more than once in the training data (like references to publications such as articles and books, whose hallucinations have been particularly notable and problematic) or on systematic facts (like arithmetic calculations). Therefore, different architectures and learning algorithms may mitigate these latter types of hallucinations.
The customization of recommended content to users holds significant importance in enhancing user experiences across a wide spectrum of applications such as e-commerce, music, and shopping. Graph-based methods have achieved considerable performance by capturing user-item interactions. However, these methods tend to utilize randomly constructed embeddings in the dataset used for training the recommender, which lacks any user preferences. Here, we propose the concept of variational embeddings as a means of pre-training the recommender system to improve the feature propagation through the layers of graph convolutional networks (GCNs). The graph variational embedding collaborative filtering (GVECF) is introduced as a novel framework to incorporate representations learned through a variational graph auto-encoder which are embedded into a GCN-based collaborative filtering. This approach effectively transforms latent high-order user-item interactions into more trainable vectors, ultimately resulting in better performance in terms of recall and normalized discounted cumulative gain(NDCG) metrics. The experiments conducted on benchmark datasets demonstrate that our proposed method achieves up to 13.78% improvement in the recall over the test data.
We present the results of training a large trajectory model using real-world user check-in data. Our approach follows a pre-train and fine-tune paradigm, where a base model is pre-trained via masked trajectory modeling and then adapted through fine-tuning for various downstream tasks. To address challenges posed by noisy data and large spatial vocabularies, we propose a novel spatial tokenization block. Our empirical analysis utilizes a comprehensive dataset of over 2 billion check-ins generated by more than 6 million users. Through fine-tuning on 3 downstream tasks we demonstrate that our base model has effectively learned valuable underlying patterns in raw data, enabling its application in meaningful trajectory intelligence tasks. Despite some limitations, we believe this work represents an important step forward in the realization of a foundation model for trajectory intelligence.
Technology ecosystems often undergo significant transformations as they mature. For example, telephony, the Internet, and PCs all started with a single provider, but in the United States each is now served by a competitive market that uses comprehensive and universal technology standards to provide compatibility. This white paper presents our view on how the cloud ecosystem, barely over fifteen years old, could evolve as it matures.
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