Forecast reconciliation is the post-forecasting process aimed to revise a set of incoherent base forecasts into coherent forecasts in line with given data structures. Most of the point and probabilistic regression-based forecast reconciliation results ground on the so called "structural representation" and on the related unconstrained generalized least squares reconciliation formula. However, the structural representation naturally applies to genuine hierarchical/grouped time series, where the top- and bottom-level variables are uniquely identified. When a general linearly constrained multiple time series is considered, the forecast reconciliation is naturally expressed according to a projection approach. While it is well known that the classic structural reconciliation formula is equivalent to its projection approach counterpart, so far it is not completely understood if and how a structural-like reconciliation formula may be derived for a general linearly constrained multiple time series. Such an expression would permit to extend reconciliation definitions, theorems and results in a straightforward manner. In this paper, we show that for general linearly constrained multiple time series it is possible to express the reconciliation formula according to a "structural-like" approach that keeps distinct free and constrained, instead of bottom and upper (aggregated), variables, establish the probabilistic forecast reconciliation framework, and apply these findings to obtain fully reconciled point and probabilistic forecasts for the aggregates of the Australian GDP from income and expenditure sides, and for the European Area GDP disaggregated by income, expenditure and output sides and by 19 countries.
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Accurate time series forecasting is a fundamental challenge in data science. It is often affected by external covariates such as weather or human intervention, which in many applications, may be predicted with reasonable accuracy. We refer to them as predicted future covariates. However, existing methods that attempt to predict time series in an iterative manner with autoregressive models end up with exponential error accumulations. Other strategies hat consider the past and future in the encoder and decoder respectively limit themselves by dealing with the historical and future data separately. To address these limitations, a novel feature representation strategy -- shifting -- is proposed to fuse the past data and future covariates such that their interactions can be considered. To extract complex dynamics in time series, we develop a parallel deep learning framework composed of RNN and CNN, both of which are used hierarchically. We also utilize the skip connection technique to improve the model's performance. Extensive experiments on three datasets reveal the effectiveness of our method. Finally, we demonstrate the model interpretability using the Grad-CAM algorithm.
In the classical communication setting multiple senders having access to the same source of information and transmitting it over channel(s) to a receiver in general leads to a decrease in estimation error at the receiver as compared with the single sender case. However, if the objectives of the information providers are different from that of the estimator, this might result in interesting strategic interactions and outcomes. In this work, we consider a hierarchical signaling game between multiple senders (information designers) and a single receiver (decision maker) each having their own, possibly misaligned, objectives. The senders lead the game by committing to individual information disclosure policies simultaneously, within the framework of a non-cooperative Nash game among themselves. This is followed by the receiver's action decision. With Gaussian information structure and quadratic objectives (which depend on underlying state and receiver's action) for all the players, we show that in general the equilibrium is not unique. We hence identify a set of equilibria and further show that linear noiseless policies can achieve a minimal element of this set. Additionally, we show that competition among the senders is beneficial to the receiver, as compared with cooperation among the senders. Further, we extend our analysis to a dynamic signaling game of finite horizon with Markovian information evolution. We show that linear memoryless policies can achieve equilibrium in this dynamic game. We also consider an extension to a game with multiple receivers having coupled objectives. We provide algorithms to compute the equilibrium strategies in all these cases. Finally, via extensive simulations, we analyze the effects of multiple senders in varying degrees of alignment among their objectives.
The optimization of Kernel-Target Alignment (TA) has been recently proposed as a way to reduce the number of hardware resources in quantum classifiers. It allows to exchange highly expressive and costly circuits to moderate size, task oriented ones. In this work we propose a simple toy model to study the optimization landscape of the Kernel-Target Alignment. We find that for underparameterized circuits the optimization landscape possess either many local extrema or becomes flat with narrow global extremum. We find the dependence of the width of the global extremum peak on the amount of data introduced to the model. The experimental study was performed using multispectral satellite data, and we targeted the cloud detection task, being one of the most fundamental and important image analysis tasks in remote sensing.
In multivariate time series analysis, the coherence measures the linear dependency between two-time series at different frequencies. However, real data applications often exhibit nonlinear dependency in the frequency domain. Conventional coherence analysis fails to capture such dependency. The quantile coherence, on the other hand, characterizes nonlinear dependency by defining the coherence at a set of quantile levels based on trigonometric quantile regression. Although quantile coherence is a more powerful tool, its estimation remains challenging due to the high level of noise. This paper introduces a new estimation technique for quantile coherence. The proposed method is semi-parametric, which uses the parametric form of the spectrum of the vector autoregressive (VAR) model as an approximation to the quantile spectral matrix, along with nonparametric smoothing across quantiles. For each fixed quantile level, we obtain the VAR parameters from the quantile periodograms, then, using the Durbin-Levinson algorithm, we calculate the preliminary estimate of quantile coherence using the VAR parameters. Finally, we smooth the preliminary estimate of quantile coherence across quantiles using a nonparametric smoother. Numerical results show that the proposed estimation method outperforms nonparametric methods. We show that quantile coherence-based bivariate time series clustering has advantages over the ordinary VAR coherence. For applications, the identified clusters of financial stocks by quantile coherence with a market benchmark are shown to have an intriguing and more accurate structure of diversified investment portfolios that may be used by investors to make better decisions.
Ductile damage models and cohesive laws incorporate the material plasticity entailing the growth of irrecoverable deformations even after complete failure. This unrealistic growth remains concealed until the unilateral effects arising from the crack closure emerge. We address this issue by proposing a new strategy to cope with the entire process of failure, from the very inception in the form of diffuse damage to the final stage, i.e. the emergence of sharp cracks. To this end, we introduce a new strain field, termed discontinuity strain, to the conventional additive strain decomposition to account for discontinuities in a continuous sense so that the standard principle of virtual work applies. We treat this strain field similar to a strong discontinuity, yet without introducing new kinematic variables and nonlinear boundary conditions. In this paper, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this new strategy at a simple ductile damage constitutive model. The model uses a scalar damage index to control the degradation process. The discontinuity strain field is injected into the strain decomposition if this damage index exceeds a certain threshold. The threshold corresponds to the limit at which the induced imperfections merge and form a discrete crack. With three-point bending tests under pure mode I and mixed-mode conditions, we demonstrate that this augmentation does not show the early crack closure artifact which is wrongly predicted by plastic damage formulations at load reversal. We also use the concrete damaged plasticity model provided in Abaqus commercial finite element program for our comparison. Lastly, a high-intensity low-cycle fatigue test demonstrates the unilateral effects resulting from the complete closure of the induced crack.
This paper presents a novel approach to Bayesian nonparametric spectral analysis of stationary multivariate time series. Starting with a parametric vector-autoregressive model, the parametric likelihood is nonparametrically adjusted in the frequency domain to account for potential deviations from parametric assumptions. We show mutual contiguity of the nonparametrically corrected likelihood, the multivariate Whittle likelihood approximation and the exact likelihood for Gaussian time series. A multivariate extension of the nonparametric Bernstein-Dirichlet process prior for univariate spectral densities to the space of Hermitian positive definite spectral density matrices is specified directly on the correction matrices. An infinite series representation of this prior is then used to develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from the posterior distribution. The code is made publicly available for ease of use and reproducibility. With this novel approach we provide a generalization of the multivariate Whittle-likelihood-based method of Meier et al. (2020) as well as an extension of the nonparametrically corrected likelihood for univariate stationary time series of Kirch et al. (2019) to the multivariate case. We demonstrate that the nonparametrically corrected likelihood combines the efficiencies of a parametric with the robustness of a nonparametric model. Its numerical accuracy is illustrated in a comprehensive simulation study. We illustrate its practical advantages by a spectral analysis of two environmental time series data sets: a bivariate time series of the Southern Oscillation Index and fish recruitment and time series of windspeed data at six locations in California.
The estimation of unknown parameters in simulations, also known as calibration, is crucial for practical management of epidemics and prediction of pandemic risk. A simple yet widely used approach is to estimate the parameters by minimizing the sum of the squared distances between actual observations and simulation outputs. It is shown in this paper that this method is inefficient, particularly when the epidemic models are developed based on certain simplifications of reality, also known as imperfect models which are commonly used in practice. To address this issue, a new estimator is introduced that is asymptotically consistent, has a smaller estimation variance than the least squares estimator, and achieves the semiparametric efficiency. Numerical studies are performed to examine the finite sample performance. The proposed method is applied to the analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic for 20 countries based on the SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) model with both deterministic and stochastic simulations. The estimation of the parameters, including the basic reproduction number and the average incubation period, reveal the risk of disease outbreaks in each country and provide insights to the design of public health interventions.
Online conversations are particularly susceptible to derailment, which can manifest itself in the form of toxic communication patterns like disrespectful comments or verbal abuse. Forecasting conversation derailment predicts signs of derailment in advance enabling proactive moderation of conversations. Current state-of-the-art approaches to address this problem rely on sequence models that treat dialogues as text streams. We propose a novel model based on a graph convolutional neural network that considers dialogue user dynamics and the influence of public perception on conversation utterances. Through empirical evaluation, we show that our model effectively captures conversation dynamics and outperforms the state-of-the-art models on the CGA and CMV benchmark datasets by 1.5\% and 1.7\%, respectively.
Although Transformer-based methods have significantly improved state-of-the-art results for long-term series forecasting, they are not only computationally expensive but more importantly, are unable to capture the global view of time series (e.g. overall trend). To address these problems, we propose to combine Transformer with the seasonal-trend decomposition method, in which the decomposition method captures the global profile of time series while Transformers capture more detailed structures. To further enhance the performance of Transformer for long-term prediction, we exploit the fact that most time series tend to have a sparse representation in well-known basis such as Fourier transform, and develop a frequency enhanced Transformer. Besides being more effective, the proposed method, termed as Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer ({\bf FEDformer}), is more efficient than standard Transformer with a linear complexity to the sequence length. Our empirical studies with six benchmark datasets show that compared with state-of-the-art methods, FEDformer can reduce prediction error by $14.8\%$ and $22.6\%$ for multivariate and univariate time series, respectively. the code will be released soon.
Image segmentation is an important component of many image understanding systems. It aims to group pixels in a spatially and perceptually coherent manner. Typically, these algorithms have a collection of parameters that control the degree of over-segmentation produced. It still remains a challenge to properly select such parameters for human-like perceptual grouping. In this work, we exploit the diversity of segments produced by different choices of parameters. We scan the segmentation parameter space and generate a collection of image segmentation hypotheses (from highly over-segmented to under-segmented). These are fed into a cost minimization framework that produces the final segmentation by selecting segments that: (1) better describe the natural contours of the image, and (2) are more stable and persistent among all the segmentation hypotheses. We compare our algorithm's performance with state-of-the-art algorithms, showing that we can achieve improved results. We also show that our framework is robust to the choice of segmentation kernel that produces the initial set of hypotheses.
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