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Motivated by the dynamic modeling of relative abundance data in ecology, we introduce a general approach to model time series on the simplex. Our approach is based on a general construction of infinite memory models, called chains with complete connections. Simple conditions ensuring the existence of stationary paths are given for the transition kernel that defines the dynamic. We then study in details two specific examples with a Dirichlet and a multivariate logistic-normal conditional distribution. Inference methods can be based on either likelihood maximization or on some convex criteria that can be used to initialize likelihood optimization. We also give an interpretation of our models in term of additive perturbations on the simplex and relative risk ratios which are useful to analyze abundance data in ecosystems. An illustration concerning the evolution of the distribution of three species of Scandinavian birds is provided.

In recent years, several swarm intelligence optimization algorithms have been proposed to be applied for solving a variety of optimization problems. However, the values of several hyperparameters should be determined. For instance, although Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) has been applied for several applications with higher optimization performance, the weights of inertial velocity, the particle's best known position and the swarm's best known position should be determined. Therefore, this study proposes an analytic framework to analyze the optimized average-fitness-function-value (AFFV) based on mathematical models for a variety of fitness functions. Furthermore, the optimized hyperparameter values could be determined with a lower AFFV for minimum cases. Experimental results show that the hyperparameter values from the proposed method can obtain higher efficiency convergences and lower AFFVs.

The analysis of data stored in multiple sites has become more popular, raising new concerns about the security of data storage and communication. Federated learning, which does not require centralizing data, is a common approach to preventing heavy data transportation, securing valued data, and protecting personal information protection. Therefore, determining how to aggregate the information obtained from the analysis of data in separate local sites has become an important statistical issue. The commonly used averaging methods may not be suitable due to data nonhomogeneity and incomparable results among individual sites, and applying them may result in the loss of information obtained from the individual analyses. Using a sequential method in federated learning with distributed computing can facilitate the integration and accelerate the analysis process. We develop a data-driven method for efficiently and effectively aggregating valued information by analyzing local data without encountering potential issues such as information security and heavy transportation due to data communication. In addition, the proposed method can preserve the properties of classical sequential adaptive design, such as data-driven sample size and estimation precision when applied to generalized linear models. We use numerical studies of simulated data and an application to COVID-19 data collected from 32 hospitals in Mexico, to illustrate the proposed method.

We discuss nonparametric estimators of the distribution of the incubation time of a disease. The classical approach in these models is to use parametric families like Weibull, log-normal or gamma in the estimation procedure. We analyze instead the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and show that, under some conditions, its rate of convergence is cube root $n$ and that its limit behavior is given by Chernoff's distribution. We also study smooth estimates, based on the MLE. The density estimates, based on the MLE, are capable of catching finer or unexpected aspects of the density, in contrast with the classical parametric methods. {\tt R} scripts are provided for the nonparametric methods.

Pin fins are imperative in the cooling of turbine blades. The designs of pin fins, therefore, have seen significant research in the past. With the developments in metal additive manufacturing, novel design approaches toward complex geometries are now feasible. To that end, this article presents a Bayesian optimization approach for designing inline pins that can achieve low pressure loss. The pin-fin shape is defined using featurized (parametrized) piecewise cubic splines in 2D. The complexity of the shape is dependent on the number of splines used for the analysis. From a method development perspective, the study is performed using three splines. Owing to this piece-wise modeling, a unique pin fin design is defined using five features. After specifying the design, a computational fluid dynamics-based model is developed that computes the pressure drop during the flow. Bayesian optimization is carried out on a Gaussian processes-based surrogate to obtain an optimal combination of pin-fin features to minimize the pressure drop. The results show that the optimization tends to approach an aerodynamic design leading to low pressure drop corroborating with the existing knowledge. Furthermore, multiple iterations of optimizations are conducted with varying degree of input data. The results reveal that a convergence to similar optimal design is achieved with a minimum of just twenty five initial design-of-experiments data points for the surrogate. Sensitivity analysis shows that the distance between the rows of the pin fins is the most dominant feature influencing the pressure drop. In summary, the newly developed automated framework demonstrates remarkable capabilities in designing pin fins with superior performance characteristics.

We investigate the expressive power of depth-2 bandlimited random neural networks. A random net is a neural network where the hidden layer parameters are frozen with random assignment, and only the output layer parameters are trained by loss minimization. Using random weights for a hidden layer is an effective method to avoid non-convex optimization in standard gradient descent learning. It has also been adopted in recent deep learning theories. Despite the well-known fact that a neural network is a universal approximator, in this study, we mathematically show that when hidden parameters are distributed in a bounded domain, the network may not achieve zero approximation error. In particular, we derive a new nontrivial approximation error lower bound. The proof utilizes the technique of ridgelet analysis, a harmonic analysis method designed for neural networks. This method is inspired by fundamental principles in classical signal processing, specifically the idea that signals with limited bandwidth may not always be able to perfectly recreate the original signal. We corroborate our theoretical results with various simulation studies, and generally, two main take-home messages are offered: (i) Not any distribution for selecting random weights is feasible to build a universal approximator; (ii) A suitable assignment of random weights exists but to some degree is associated with the complexity of the target function.

Distributed stochastic optimization has drawn great attention recently due to its effectiveness in solving large-scale machine learning problems. However, despite that numerous algorithms have been proposed with empirical successes, their theoretical guarantees are restrictive and rely on certain boundedness conditions on the stochastic gradients, varying from uniform boundedness to the relaxed growth condition. In addition, how to characterize the data heterogeneity among the agents and its impacts on the algorithmic performance remains challenging. In light of such motivations, we revisit the classical FedAvg algorithm for solving the distributed stochastic optimization problem and establish the convergence results under only a mild variance condition on the stochastic gradients for smooth nonconvex objective functions. Almost sure convergence to a stationary point is also established under the condition. Moreover, we discuss a more informative measurement for data heterogeneity as well as its implications.

Real-world applications with multiple sensors observing an event are expected to make continuously-available predictions, even in cases where information may be intermittently missing. We explore methods in ensemble learning and sensor fusion to make use of redundancy and information shared between four camera views, applied to the task of hand activity classification for autonomous driving. In particular, we show that a late-fusion approach between parallel convolutional neural networks can outperform even the best-placed single camera model. To enable this approach, we propose a scheme for handling missing information, and then provide comparative analysis of this late-fusion approach to additional methods such as weighted majority voting and model combination schemes.

In this paper, we present a distributed optimal multiagent control scheme for quadrotor formation tracking under localization errors. Our control architecture is based on a leader-follower approach, where a single leader quadrotor tracks a desired trajectory while the followers maintain their relative positions in a triangular formation. We begin by modeling the quadrotors as particles in the YZ-plane evolving under dynamics with uncertain state information. Next, by formulating the formation tracking task as an optimization problem -- with a constraint-augmented Lagrangian subject to dynamic constraints -- we solve for the control law that leads to an optimal solution in the control and trajectory error cost-minimizing sense. Results from numerical simulations show that for the planar quadrotor model considered -- with uncertainty in sensor measurements modeled as Gaussian noise -- the resulting optimal control is able to drive each agent to achieve the desired global objective: leader trajectory tracking with formation maintenance. Finally, we evaluate the performance of the control law using the tracking and formation errors of the multiagent system.

Effective multi-robot teams require the ability to move to goals in complex environments in order to address real-world applications such as search and rescue. Multi-robot teams should be able to operate in a completely decentralized manner, with individual robot team members being capable of acting without explicit communication between neighbors. In this paper, we propose a novel game theoretic model that enables decentralized and communication-free navigation to a goal position. Robots each play their own distributed game by estimating the behavior of their local teammates in order to identify behaviors that move them in the direction of the goal, while also avoiding obstacles and maintaining team cohesion without collisions. We prove theoretically that generated actions approach a Nash equilibrium, which also corresponds to an optimal strategy identified for each robot. We show through extensive simulations that our approach enables decentralized and communication-free navigation by a multi-robot system to a goal position, and is able to avoid obstacles and collisions, maintain connectivity, and respond robustly to sensor noise.