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We develop the use of mutual information (MI), a well-established metric in information theory, to interpret the inner workings of deep learning models. To accurately estimate MI from a finite number of samples, we present GMM-MI (pronounced $``$Jimmie$"$), an algorithm based on Gaussian mixture models that can be applied to both discrete and continuous settings. GMM-MI is computationally efficient, robust to the choice of hyperparameters and provides the uncertainty on the MI estimate due to the finite sample size. We extensively validate GMM-MI on toy data for which the ground truth MI is known, comparing its performance against established mutual information estimators. We then demonstrate the use of our MI estimator in the context of representation learning, working with synthetic data and physical datasets describing highly non-linear processes. We train deep learning models to encode high-dimensional data within a meaningful compressed (latent) representation, and use GMM-MI to quantify both the level of disentanglement between the latent variables, and their association with relevant physical quantities, thus unlocking the interpretability of the latent representation. We make GMM-MI publicly available.

Motivated by applications in personalized medicine and individualized policy making, there is a growing interest in techniques for quantifying treatment effect heterogeneity in terms of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE). Some of the most prominent methods for CATE estimation developed in recent years are T-Learner, DR-Learner and R-Learner. The latter two were designed to improve on the former by being Neyman-orthogonal. However, the relations between them remain unclear, and likewise does the literature remain vague on whether these learners converge to a useful quantity or (functional) estimand when the underlying optimization procedure is restricted to a class of functions that does not include the CATE. In this article, we provide insight into these questions by discussing DR-learner and R-learner as special cases of a general class of Neyman-orthogonal learners for the CATE, for which we moreover derive oracle bounds. Our results shed light on how one may construct Neyman-orthogonal learners with desirable properties, on when DR-learner may be preferred over R-learner (and vice versa), and on novel learners that may sometimes be preferable to either of these. Theoretical findings are confirmed using results from simulation studies on synthetic data, as well as an application in critical care medicine.

Estimating the causal effect of a treatment or exposure for a subpopulation is of great interest in many biomedical and economical studies. Expected shortfall, also referred to as the super-quantile, is an attractive effect-size measure that can accommodate data heterogeneity and aggregate local information of effect over a certain region of interest of the outcome distribution. In this article, we propose the ComplieR Expected Shortfall Treatment Effect (CRESTE) model under an instrumental variable framework to quantity the CRESTE for a binary endogenous treatment variable. By utilizing the special characteristics of a binary instrumental variable and a specific formulation of Neyman-orthogonalization, we propose a two-step estimation procedure, which can be implemented by simply solving weighted least-squares regression and weighted quantile regression with estimated weights. We develop the asymptotic properties for the proposed estimator and use numerical simulations to confirm its validity and robust finite-sample performance. An illustrative analysis of a National Job Training Partnership Act study is presented to show the practical utility of the proposed method.

Many major works in social science employ matching to make causal conclusions, but different matches on the same data may produce different treatment effect estimates, even when they achieve similar balance or minimize the same loss function. We discuss reasons and consequences of this problem. We present evidence of this problem by replicating ten papers that use matching and we find that different popular matching algorithms produce inconsistent results. We introduce Matching Bounds: a finite-sample, nonstochastic method that allows analysts to know whether a matched sample that produces different results with the same levels of balance and overall match quality could be obtained from their data. We apply Matching Bounds to a replication of two studies and show that in one case results are robust to this issue and in another they are not.

Numerical simulations with rigid particles, drops or vesicles constitute some examples that involve 3D objects with spherical topology. When the numerical method is based on boundary integral equations, the error in using a regular quadrature rule to approximate the layer potentials that appear in the formulation will increase rapidly as the evaluation point approaches the surface and the integrand becomes sharply peaked. To determine when the accuracy becomes insufficient, and a more costly special quadrature method should be used, error estimates are needed. In this paper we present quadrature error estimates for layer potentials evaluated near surfaces of genus 0, parametrized using a polar and an azimuthal angle, discretized by a combination of the Gauss-Legendre and the trapezoidal quadrature rules. The error estimates involve no unknown coefficients, but complex valued roots of a specified distance function. The evaluation of the error estimates in general requires a one dimensional local root-finding procedure, but for specific geometries we obtain analytical results. Based on these explicit solutions, we derive simplified error estimates for layer potentials evaluated near spheres; these simple formulas depend only on the distance from the surface, the radius of the sphere and the number of discretization points. The usefulness of these error estimates is illustrated with numerical examples.

Understanding dynamics in complex systems is challenging because there are many degrees of freedom, and those that are most important for describing events of interest are often not obvious. The leading eigenfunctions of the transition operator are useful for visualization, and they can provide an efficient basis for computing statistics such as the likelihood and average time of events (predictions). Here we develop inexact iterative linear algebra methods for computing these eigenfunctions (spectral estimation) and making predictions from a data set of short trajectories sampled at finite intervals. We demonstrate the methods on a low-dimensional model that facilitates visualization and a high-dimensional model of a biomolecular system. Implications for the prediction problem in reinforcement learning are discussed.

Observational cohort studies are increasingly being used for comparative effectiveness research to assess the safety of therapeutics. Recently, various doubly robust methods have been proposed for average treatment effect estimation by combining the treatment model and the outcome model via different vehicles, such as matching, weighting, and regression. The key advantage of doubly robust estimators is that they require either the treatment model or the outcome model to be correctly specified to obtain a consistent estimator of average treatment effects, and therefore lead to a more accurate and often more precise inference. However, little work has been done to understand how doubly robust estimators differ due to their unique strategies of using the treatment and outcome models and how machine learning techniques can be combined to boost their performance. Here we examine multiple popular doubly robust methods and compare their performance using different treatment and outcome modeling via extensive simulations and a real-world application. We found that incorporating machine learning with doubly robust estimators such as the targeted maximum likelihood estimator gives the best overall performance. Practical guidance on how to apply doubly robust estimators is provided.

We review Quasi Maximum Likelihood estimation of factor models for high-dimensional panels of time series. We consider two cases: (1) estimation when no dynamic model for the factors is specified (Bai and Li, 2016); (2) estimation based on the Kalman smoother and the Expectation Maximization algorithm thus allowing to model explicitly the factor dynamics (Doz et al., 2012). Our interest is in approximate factor models, i.e., when we allow for the idiosyncratic components to be mildly cross-sectionally, as well as serially, correlated. Although such setting apparently makes estimation harder, we show, in fact, that factor models do not suffer of the curse of dimensionality problem, but instead they enjoy a blessing of dimensionality property. In particular, we show that if the cross-sectional dimension of the data, $N$, grows to infinity, then: (i) identification of the model is still possible, (ii) the mis-specification error due to the use of an exact factor model log-likelihood vanishes. Moreover, if we let also the sample size, $T$, grow to infinity, we can also consistently estimate all parameters of the model and make inference. The same is true for estimation of the latent factors which can be carried out by weighted least-squares, linear projection, or Kalman filtering/smoothing. We also compare the approaches presented with: Principal Component analysis and the classical, fixed $N$, exact Maximum Likelihood approach. We conclude with a discussion on efficiency of the considered estimators.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

Pre-trained deep neural network language models such as ELMo, GPT, BERT and XLNet have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance on a variety of language understanding tasks. However, their size makes them impractical for a number of scenarios, especially on mobile and edge devices. In particular, the input word embedding matrix accounts for a significant proportion of the model's memory footprint, due to the large input vocabulary and embedding dimensions. Knowledge distillation techniques have had success at compressing large neural network models, but they are ineffective at yielding student models with vocabularies different from the original teacher models. We introduce a novel knowledge distillation technique for training a student model with a significantly smaller vocabulary as well as lower embedding and hidden state dimensions. Specifically, we employ a dual-training mechanism that trains the teacher and student models simultaneously to obtain optimal word embeddings for the student vocabulary. We combine this approach with learning shared projection matrices that transfer layer-wise knowledge from the teacher model to the student model. Our method is able to compress the BERT_BASE model by more than 60x, with only a minor drop in downstream task metrics, resulting in a language model with a footprint of under 7MB. Experimental results also demonstrate higher compression efficiency and accuracy when compared with other state-of-the-art compression techniques.