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The recursive and hierarchical structure of full rooted trees is applicable to represent statistical models in various areas, such as data compression, image processing, and machine learning. In most of these cases, the full rooted tree is not a random variable; as such, model selection to avoid overfitting becomes problematic. A method to solve this problem is to assume a prior distribution on the full rooted trees. This enables overfitting to be avoided based on the Bayes decision theory. For example, by assigning a low prior probability to a complex model, the maximum a posteriori estimator prevents overfitting. Furthermore, overfitting can be avoided by averaging all the models weighted by their posteriors. In this paper, we propose a probability distribution on a set of full rooted trees. Its parametric representation is suitable for calculating the properties of our distribution using recursive functions, such as the mode, expectation, and posterior distribution. Although such distributions have been proposed in previous studies, they are only applicable to specific applications. Therefore, we extract their mathematically essential components and derive new generalized methods to calculate the expectation, posterior distribution, etc.

We consider the query complexity of finding a local minimum of a function defined on a graph, where at most $k$ rounds of interaction with the oracle are allowed. Rounds model parallel settings, where each query takes resources to complete and is executed on a separate processor. Thus the query complexity in $k$ rounds informs how many processors are needed to achieve a parallel time of $k$. We focus on the d-dimensional grid $[n]^d$, where the dimension $d$ is a constant, and consider two regimes for the number of rounds: constant and polynomial in n. We give algorithms and lower bounds that characterize the trade-off between the number of rounds of adaptivity and the query complexity of local search. When the number of rounds $k$ is constant, we show that the query complexity of local search in $k$ rounds is $\Theta\bigl(n^{\frac{d^{k+1} - d^k}{d^k - 1}}\bigl)$, for both deterministic and randomized algorithms. When the number of rounds is polynomial, i.e. $k = n^{\alpha}$ for $0 < \alpha < d/2$, the randomized query complexity is $\Theta\left(n^{d-1 - \frac{d-2}{d}\alpha}\right)$ for all $d \geq 5$. For $d=3$ and $d=4$, we show the same upper bound expression holds and give almost matching lower bounds. The local search analysis also enables us to characterize the query complexity of computing a Brouwer fixed point in rounds. Our proof technique for lower bounding the query complexity in rounds may be of independent interest as an alternative to the classical relational adversary method of Aaronson from the fully adaptive setting.

Measurement error is a pervasive issue which renders the results of an analysis unreliable. The measurement error literature contains numerous correction techniques, which can be broadly divided into those which aim to produce exactly consistent estimators, and those which are only approximately consistent. While consistency is a desirable property, it is typically attained only under specific model assumptions. Two techniques, regression calibration and simulation extrapolation, are used frequently in a wide variety of parametric and semiparametric settings. However, in many settings these methods are only approximately consistent. We generalize these corrections, relaxing assumptions placed on replicate measurements. Under regularity conditions, the estimators are shown to be asymptotically normal, with a sandwich estimator for the asymptotic variance. Through simulation, we demonstrate the improved performance of the modified estimators, over the standard techniques, when these assumptions are violated. We motivate these corrections using the Framingham Heart Study, and apply the generalized techniques to an analysis of these data.

Many supervised learning problems involve high-dimensional data such as images, text, or graphs. In order to make efficient use of data, it is often useful to leverage certain geometric priors in the problem at hand, such as invariance to translations, permutation subgroups, or stability to small deformations. We study the sample complexity of learning problems where the target function presents such invariance and stability properties, by considering spherical harmonic decompositions of such functions on the sphere. We provide non-parametric rates of convergence for kernel methods, and show improvements in sample complexity by a factor equal to the size of the group when using an invariant kernel over the group, compared to the corresponding non-invariant kernel. These improvements are valid when the sample size is large enough, with an asymptotic behavior that depends on spectral properties of the group. Finally, these gains are extended beyond invariance groups to also cover geometric stability to small deformations, modeled here as subsets (not necessarily subgroups) of permutations.

We provide (high probability) bounds on the condition number of random feature matrices. In particular, we show that if the complexity ratio $\frac{N}{m}$ where $N$ is the number of neurons and $m$ is the number of data samples scales like $\log^{-1}(N)$ or $\log(m)$, then the random feature matrix is well-conditioned. This result holds without the need of regularization and relies on establishing various concentration bounds between dependent components of the random feature matrix. Additionally, we derive bounds on the restricted isometry constant of the random feature matrix. We prove that the risk associated with regression problems using a random feature matrix exhibits the double descent phenomenon and that this is an effect of the double descent behavior of the condition number. The risk bounds include the underparameterized setting using the least squares problem and the overparameterized setting where using either the minimum norm interpolation problem or a sparse regression problem. For the least squares or sparse regression cases, we show that the risk decreases as $m$ and $N$ increase, even in the presence of bounded or random noise. The risk bound matches the optimal scaling in the literature and the constants in our results are explicit and independent of the dimension of the data.

The presence of measurement error is a widespread issue which, when ignored, can render the results of an analysis unreliable. Numerous corrections for the effects of measurement error have been proposed and studied, often under the assumption of a normally distributed, additive measurement error model. One such correction is the simulation extrapolation method, which provides a flexible way of correcting for the effects of error in a wide variety of models, when the errors are approximately normally distributed. However, in many situations observed data are non-symmetric, heavy-tailed, or otherwise highly non-normal. In these settings, correction techniques relying on the assumption of normality are undesirable. We propose an extension to the simulation extrapolation method which is nonparametric in the sense that no specific distributional assumptions are required on the error terms. The technique is implemented when either validation data or replicate measurements are available, and it shares the general structure of the standard simulation extrapolation procedure, making it immediately accessible for those familiar with this technique.

We formalize the tail redundancy of a collection of distributions over a countably infinite alphabet, and show that this fundamental quantity characterizes the asymptotic per-symbol redundancy of universally compressing sequences generated iid from a collection $\mathcal P$ of distributions over a countably infinite alphabet. Contrary to the worst case formulations of universal compression, finite single letter (average case) redundancy of $\mathcal P$ does not automatically imply that the expected redundancy of describing length-$n$ strings sampled iid from $\mathcal P$ grows sublinearly with $n$. Instead, we prove that universal compression of length-$n$ \iid sequences from $\mathcal P$ is characterized by how well the tails of distributions in $\mathcal P$ can be universally described, showing that the asymptotic per-symbol redundancy of iid strings is equal to the tail redundancy.

Large health care data repositories such as electronic health records (EHR) opens new opportunities to derive individualized treatment strategies to improve disease outcomes. We study the problem of estimating sequential treatment rules tailored to patient's individual characteristics, often referred to as dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs). We seek to find the optimal DTR which maximizes the discontinuous value function through direct maximization of a fisher consistent surrogate loss function. We show that a large class of concave surrogates fails to be Fisher consistent, which differs from the classic setting for binary classification. We further characterize a non-concave family of Fisher consistent smooth surrogate functions, which can be optimized with gradient descent using off-the-shelf machine learning algorithms. Compared to the existing direct search approach under the support vector machine framework (Zhao et al., 2015), our proposed DTR estimation via surrogate loss optimization (DTRESLO) method is more computationally scalable to large sample size and allows for a broader functional class for the predictor effects. We establish theoretical properties for our proposed DTR estimator and obtain a sharp upper bound on the regret corresponding to our DTRESLO method. Finite sample performance of our proposed estimator is evaluated through extensive simulations and an application on deriving an optimal DTR for treatment sepsis using EHR data from patients admitted to intensive care units.

Discrete random structures are important tools in Bayesian nonparametrics and the resulting models have proven effective in density estimation, clustering, topic modeling and prediction, among others. In this paper, we consider nested processes and study the dependence structures they induce. Dependence ranges between homogeneity, corresponding to full exchangeability, and maximum heterogeneity, corresponding to (unconditional) independence across samples. The popular nested Dirichlet process is shown to degenerate to the fully exchangeable case when there are ties across samples at the observed or latent level. To overcome this drawback, inherent to nesting general discrete random measures, we introduce a novel class of latent nested processes. These are obtained by adding common and group-specific completely random measures and, then, normalising to yield dependent random probability measures. We provide results on the partition distributions induced by latent nested processes, and develop an Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler for Bayesian inferences. A test for distributional homogeneity across groups is obtained as a by product. The results and their inferential implications are showcased on synthetic and real data.

In this paper, we study the optimal convergence rate for distributed convex optimization problems in networks. We model the communication restrictions imposed by the network as a set of affine constraints and provide optimal complexity bounds for four different setups, namely: the function $F(\xb) \triangleq \sum_{i=1}^{m}f_i(\xb)$ is strongly convex and smooth, either strongly convex or smooth or just convex. Our results show that Nesterov's accelerated gradient descent on the dual problem can be executed in a distributed manner and obtains the same optimal rates as in the centralized version of the problem (up to constant or logarithmic factors) with an additional cost related to the spectral gap of the interaction matrix. Finally, we discuss some extensions to the proposed setup such as proximal friendly functions, time-varying graphs, improvement of the condition numbers.