We consider the problem of detecting jumps in an otherwise smoothly evolving trend whilst the covariance and higher-order structures of the system can experience both smooth and abrupt changes over time. The number of jump points is allowed to diverge to infinity with the jump sizes possibly shrinking to zero. The method is based on a multiscale application of an optimal jump-pass filter to the time series, where the scales are dense between admissible lower and upper bounds. For a wide class of non-stationary time series models and trend functions, the proposed method is shown to be able to detect all jump points within a nearly optimal range with a prescribed probability asymptotically under mild conditions. For a time series of length $n$, the computational complexity of the proposed method is $O(n)$ for each scale and $O(n\log^{1+\epsilon} n)$ overall, where $\epsilon$ is an arbitrarily small positive constant. Numerical studies show that the proposed jump testing and estimation method performs robustly and accurately under complex temporal dynamics.
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We study the problem of density estimation for a random vector ${\boldsymbol X}$ in $\mathbb R^d$ with probability density $f(\boldsymbol x)$. For a spanning tree $T$ defined on the vertex set $\{1,\dots ,d\}$, the tree density $f_{T}$ is a product of bivariate conditional densities. The optimal spanning tree $T^*$ is the spanning tree $T$, for which the Kullback-Leibler divergence of $f$ and $f_{T}$ is the smallest. From i.i.d. data we identify the optimal tree $T^*$ and computationally efficiently construct a tree density estimate $f_n$ such that, without any regularity conditions on the density $f$, one has that $\lim_{n\to \infty} \int |f_n(\boldsymbol x)-f_{T^*}(\boldsymbol x)|d\boldsymbol x=0$ a.s. For Lipschitz continuous $f$ with bounded support, $\mathbb E\{ \int |f_n(\boldsymbol x)-f_{T^*}(\boldsymbol x)|d\boldsymbol x\}=O(n^{-1/4})$.
Accurate value estimates are important for off-policy reinforcement learning. Algorithms based on temporal difference learning typically are prone to an over- or underestimation bias building up over time. In this paper, we propose a general method called Adaptively Calibrated Critics (ACC) that uses the most recent high variance but unbiased on-policy rollouts to alleviate the bias of the low variance temporal difference targets. We apply ACC to Truncated Quantile Critics, which is an algorithm for continuous control that allows regulation of the bias with a hyperparameter tuned per environment. The resulting algorithm adaptively adjusts the parameter during training rendering hyperparameter search unnecessary and sets a new state of the art on the OpenAI gym continuous control benchmark among all algorithms that do not tune hyperparameters for each environment. Additionally, we demonstrate that ACC is quite general by further applying it to TD3 and showing an improved performance also in this setting.
This paper considers a novel multi-agent linear stochastic approximation algorithm driven by Markovian noise and general consensus-type interaction, in which each agent evolves according to its local stochastic approximation process which depends on the information from its neighbors. The interconnection structure among the agents is described by a time-varying directed graph. While the convergence of consensus-based stochastic approximation algorithms when the interconnection among the agents is described by doubly stochastic matrices (at least in expectation) has been studied, less is known about the case when the interconnection matrix is simply stochastic. For any uniformly strongly connected graph sequences whose associated interaction matrices are stochastic, the paper derives finite-time bounds on the mean-square error, defined as the deviation of the output of the algorithm from the unique equilibrium point of the associated ordinary differential equation. For the case of interconnection matrices being stochastic, the equilibrium point can be any unspecified convex combination of the local equilibria of all the agents in the absence of communication. Both the cases with constant and time-varying step-sizes are considered. In the case when the convex combination is required to be a straight average and interaction between any pair of neighboring agents may be uni-directional, so that doubly stochastic matrices cannot be implemented in a distributed manner, the paper proposes a push-sum-type distributed stochastic approximation algorithm and provides its finite-time bound for the time-varying step-size case by leveraging the analysis for the consensus-type algorithm with stochastic matrices and developing novel properties of the push-sum algorithm.
This paper tackles the problem of robust covariance matrix estimation when the data is incomplete. Classical statistical estimation methodologies are usually built upon the Gaussian assumption, whereas existing robust estimation ones assume unstructured signal models. The former can be inaccurate in real-world data sets in which heterogeneity causes heavy-tail distributions, while the latter does not profit from the usual low-rank structure of the signal. Taking advantage of both worlds, a covariance matrix estimation procedure is designed on a robust (mixture of scaled Gaussian) low-rank model by leveraging the observed-data likelihood function within an expectation-maximization algorithm. It is also designed to handle general pattern of missing values. The proposed procedure is first validated on simulated data sets. Then, its interest for classification and clustering applications is assessed on two real data sets with missing values, which include multispectral and hyperspectral time series.
Randomized controlled trials are considered the gold standard to evaluate the treatment effect (estimand) for efficacy and safety. According to the recent International Council on Harmonisation (ICH)-E9 addendum (R1), intercurrent events (ICEs) need to be considered when defining an estimand, and principal stratum is one of the five strategies to handle ICEs. Qu et al. (2020, Statistics in Biopharmaceutical Research 12:1-18) proposed estimators for the adherer average causal effect (AdACE) for estimating the treatment difference for those who adhere to one or both treatments based on the causal-inference framework, and demonstrated the consistency of those estimators; however, this method requires complex custom programming related to high-dimensional numeric integrations. In this article, we implemented the AdACE estimators using multiple imputation (MI) and constructs CI through bootstrapping. A simulation study showed that the MI-based estimators provided consistent estimators with the nominal coverage probabilities of CIs for the treatment difference for the adherent populations of interest. As an illustrative example, the new method was applied to data from a real clinical trial comparing 2 types of basal insulin for patients with type 1 diabetes.
In this work, we focus our attention on the study of the interplay between the data distribution and Q-learning-based algorithms with function approximation. We provide a theoretical and empirical analysis as to why different properties of the data distribution can contribute to regulating sources of algorithmic instability. First, we revisit theoretical bounds on the performance of approximate dynamic programming algorithms. Second, we provide a novel four-state MDP that highlights the impact of the data distribution in the performance of a Q-learning algorithm with function approximation, both in online and offline settings. Finally, we experimentally assess the impact of the data distribution properties in the performance of an offline deep Q-network algorithm. Our results show that: (i) the data distribution needs to possess certain properties in order to robustly learn in an offline setting, namely low distance to the distributions induced by optimal policies of the MDP and high coverage over the state-action space; and (ii) high entropy data distributions can contribute to mitigating sources of algorithmic instability.
We propose a new method of estimation in topic models, that is not a variation on the existing simplex finding algorithms, and that estimates the number of topics K from the observed data. We derive new finite sample minimax lower bounds for the estimation of A, as well as new upper bounds for our proposed estimator. We describe the scenarios where our estimator is minimax adaptive. Our finite sample analysis is valid for any number of documents (n), individual document length (N_i), dictionary size (p) and number of topics (K), and both p and K are allowed to increase with n, a situation not handled well by previous analyses. We complement our theoretical results with a detailed simulation study. We illustrate that the new algorithm is faster and more accurate than the current ones, although we start out with a computational and theoretical disadvantage of not knowing the correct number of topics K, while we provide the competing methods with the correct value in our simulations.
Seam-cutting and seam-driven techniques have been proven effective for handling imperfect image series in image stitching. Generally, seam-driven is to utilize seam-cutting to find a best seam from one or finite alignment hypotheses based on a predefined seam quality metric. However, the quality metrics in most methods are defined to measure the average performance of the pixels on the seam without considering the relevance and variance among them. This may cause that the seam with the minimal measure is not optimal (perception-inconsistent) in human perception. In this paper, we propose a novel coarse-to-fine seam estimation method which applies the evaluation in a different way. For pixels on the seam, we develop a patch-point evaluation algorithm concentrating more on the correlation and variation of them. The evaluations are then used to recalculate the difference map of the overlapping region and reestimate a stitching seam. This evaluation-reestimation procedure iterates until the current seam changes negligibly comparing with the previous seams. Experiments show that our proposed method can finally find a nearly perception-consistent seam after several iterations, which outperforms the conventional seam-cutting and other seam-driven methods.
Many problems on signal processing reduce to nonparametric function estimation. We propose a new methodology, piecewise convex fitting (PCF), and give a two-stage adaptive estimate. In the first stage, the number and location of the change points is estimated using strong smoothing. In the second stage, a constrained smoothing spline fit is performed with the smoothing level chosen to minimize the MSE. The imposed constraint is that a single change point occurs in a region about each empirical change point of the first-stage estimate. This constraint is equivalent to requiring that the third derivative of the second-stage estimate has a single sign in a small neighborhood about each first-stage change point. We sketch how PCF may be applied to signal recovery, instantaneous frequency estimation, surface reconstruction, image segmentation, spectral estimation and multivariate adaptive regression.
In this work, we present a method for tracking and learning the dynamics of all objects in a large scale robot environment. A mobile robot patrols the environment and visits the different locations one by one. Movable objects are discovered by change detection, and tracked throughout the robot deployment. For tracking, we extend the Rao-Blackwellized particle filter of previous work with birth and death processes, enabling the method to handle an arbitrary number of objects. Target births and associations are sampled using Gibbs sampling. The parameters of the system are then learnt using the Expectation Maximization algorithm in an unsupervised fashion. The system therefore enables learning of the dynamics of one particular environment, and of its objects. The algorithm is evaluated on data collected autonomously by a mobile robot in an office environment during a real-world deployment. We show that the algorithm automatically identifies and tracks the moving objects within 3D maps and infers plausible dynamics models, significantly decreasing the modeling bias of our previous work. The proposed method represents an improvement over previous methods for environment dynamics learning as it allows for learning of fine grained processes.
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