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This paper gives a new approach for the maximum likelihood estimation of the joint of the location and scale of the Cauchy distribution. We regard the joint as a single complex parameter and derive a new form of the likelihood equation of a complex variable. Based on the equation, we provide a new iterative scheme approximating the maximum likelihood estimate. We also handle the equation in an algebraic manner and derive a polynomial containing the maximum likelihood estimate as a root. This algebraic approach provides another scheme approximating the maximum likelihood estimate by root-finding algorithms for polynomials, and furthermore, gives non-existence of closed-form formulae for the case that the sample size is five. We finally provide some numerical examples to show our method is effective.

相關內容

在統計(ji)學中,最(zui)大似(si)然估(gu)計(ji)(maximum likelihood estimation, MLE)是通過最(zui)大化似(si)然函數(shu)估(gu)計(ji)概(gai)率(lv)分布參數(shu)的一種方法,使(shi)觀測數(shu)據在假(jia)設的統計(ji)模型下最(zui)有可能。參數(shu)空(kong)間中使(shi)似(si)然函數(shu)最(zui)大化的點稱(cheng)為最(zui)大似(si)然估(gu)計(ji)。最(zui)大似(si)然邏輯既(ji)直觀又靈(ling)活,因(yin)此該(gai)方法已成為統計(ji)推斷(duan)的主要手段。

To gain a better theoretical understanding of how evolutionary algorithms (EAs) cope with plateaus of constant fitness, we propose the $n$-dimensional Plateau$_k$ function as natural benchmark and analyze how different variants of the $(1 + 1)$ EA optimize it. The Plateau$_k$ function has a plateau of second-best fitness in a ball of radius $k$ around the optimum. As evolutionary algorithm, we regard the $(1 + 1)$ EA using an arbitrary unbiased mutation operator. Denoting by $\alpha$ the random number of bits flipped in an application of this operator and assuming that $\Pr[\alpha = 1]$ has at least some small sub-constant value, we show the surprising result that for all constant $k \ge 2$, the runtime $T$ follows a distribution close to the geometric one with success probability equal to the probability to flip between $1$ and $k$ bits divided by the size of the plateau. Consequently, the expected runtime is the inverse of this number, and thus only depends on the probability to flip between $1$ and $k$ bits, but not on other characteristics of the mutation operator. Our result also implies that the optimal mutation rate for standard bit mutation here is approximately $k/(en)$. Our main analysis tool is a combined analysis of the Markov chains on the search point space and on the Hamming level space, an approach that promises to be useful also for other plateau problems.

We consider the problem of estimating a $d$-dimensional discrete distribution from its samples observed under a $b$-bit communication constraint. In contrast to most previous results that largely focus on the global minimax error, we study the local behavior of the estimation error and provide \emph{pointwise} bounds that depend on the target distribution $p$. In particular, we show that the $\ell_2$ error decays with $O\left(\frac{\lVert p\rVert_{1/2}}{n2^b}\vee \frac{1}{n}\right)$ (In this paper, we use $a\vee b$ and $a \wedge b$ to denote $\max(a, b)$ and $\min(a,b)$ respectively.) when $n$ is sufficiently large, hence it is governed by the \emph{half-norm} of $p$ instead of the ambient dimension $d$. For the achievability result, we propose a two-round sequentially interactive estimation scheme that achieves this error rate uniformly over all $p$. Our scheme is based on a novel local refinement idea, where we first use a standard global minimax scheme to localize $p$ and then use the remaining samples to locally refine our estimate. We also develop a new local minimax lower bound with (almost) matching $\ell_2$ error, showing that any interactive scheme must admit a $\Omega\left( \frac{\lVert p \rVert_{{(1+\delta)}/{2}}}{n2^b}\right)$ $\ell_2$ error for any $\delta > 0$. The lower bound is derived by first finding the best parametric sub-model containing $p$, and then upper bounding the quantized Fisher information under this model. Our upper and lower bounds together indicate that the $\mathcal{H}_{1/2}(p) = \log(\lVert p \rVert_{{1}/{2}})$ bits of communication is both sufficient and necessary to achieve the optimal (centralized) performance, where $\mathcal{H}_{{1}/{2}}(p)$ is the R\'enyi entropy of order $2$. Therefore, under the $\ell_2$ loss, the correct measure of the local communication complexity at $p$ is its R\'enyi entropy.

This paper is devoted to condition numbers of the total least squares problem with linear equality constraint (TLSE). With novel limit techniques, closed formulae for normwise, mixed and componentwise condition numbers of the TLSE problem are derived. Computable expressions and upper bounds for these condition numbers are also given to avoid the costly Kronecker product-based operations. The results unify the ones for the TLS problem. For TLSE problems with equilibratory input data, numerical experiments illustrate that normwise condition number-based estimate is sharp to evaluate the forward error of the solution, while for sparse and badly scaled matrices, mixed and componentwise condition numbers-based estimates are much tighter.

We consider the problem of approximating the arboricity of a graph $G= (V,E)$, which we denote by $\mathsf{arb}(G)$, in sublinear time, where the arboricity of a graph is the minimal number of forests required to cover its edges. An algorithm for this problem may perform degree and neighbor queries, and is allowed a small error probability. We design an algorithm that outputs an estimate $\hat{\alpha}$, such that with probability $1-1/\textrm{poly}(n)$, $\mathsf{arb}(G)/c\log^2 n \leq \hat{\alpha} \leq \mathsf{arb}(G)$, where $n=|V|$ and $c$ is a constant. The expected query complexity and running time of the algorithm are $O(n/\mathsf{arb}(G))\cdot \textrm{poly}(\log n)$, and this upper bound also holds with high probability. %($\widetilde{O}(\cdot)$ is used to suppress $\textrm{poly}(\log n)$ dependencies). This bound is optimal for such an approximation up to a $\textrm{poly}(\log n)$ factor.

We consider \emph{Gibbs distributions}, which are families of probability distributions over a discrete space $\Omega$ with probability mass function of the form $\mu^\Omega_\beta(\omega) \propto e^{\beta H(\omega)}$ for $\beta$ in an interval $[\beta_{\min}, \beta_{\max}]$ and $H( \omega ) \in \{0 \} \cup [1, n]$. The \emph{partition function} is the normalization factor $Z(\beta)=\sum_{\omega \in\Omega}e^{\beta H(\omega)}$. Two important parameters of these distributions are the log partition ratio $q = \log \tfrac{Z(\beta_{\max})}{Z(\beta_{\min})}$ and the counts $c_x = |H^{-1}(x)|$. These are correlated with system parameters in a number of physical applications and sampling algorithms. Our first main result is to estimate the counts $c_x$ using roughly $\tilde O( \frac{q}{\varepsilon^2})$ samples for general Gibbs distributions and $\tilde O( \frac{n^2}{\varepsilon^2} )$ samples for integer-valued distributions (ignoring some second-order terms and parameters), and we show this is optimal up to logarithmic factors. We illustrate with improved algorithms for counting connected subgraphs and perfect matchings in a graph. We develop a key subroutine to estimate the partition function $Z$. Specifically, it generates a data structure to estimate $Z(\beta)$ for \emph{all} values $\beta$, without further samples. Constructing the data structure requires $O(\frac{q \log n}{\varepsilon^2})$ samples for general Gibbs distributions and $O(\frac{n^2 \log n}{\varepsilon^2} + n \log q)$ samples for integer-valued distributions. This improves over a prior algorithm of Huber (2015) which computes a single point estimate $Z(\beta_\max)$ using $O( q \log n( \log q + \log \log n + \varepsilon^{-2}))$ samples. We show matching lower bounds, demonstrating that this complexity is optimal as a function of $n$ and $q$ up to logarithmic terms.

Quantile (and, more generally, KL) regret bounds, such as those achieved by NormalHedge (Chaudhuri, Freund, and Hsu 2009) and its variants, relax the goal of competing against the best individual expert to only competing against a majority of experts on adversarial data. More recently, the semi-adversarial paradigm (Bilodeau, Negrea, and Roy 2020) provides an alternative relaxation of adversarial online learning by considering data that may be neither fully adversarial nor stochastic (i.i.d.). We achieve the minimax optimal regret in both paradigms using FTRL with separate, novel, root-logarithmic regularizers, both of which can be interpreted as yielding variants of NormalHedge. We extend existing KL regret upper bounds, which hold uniformly over target distributions, to possibly uncountable expert classes with arbitrary priors; provide the first full-information lower bounds for quantile regret on finite expert classes (which are tight); and provide an adaptively minimax optimal algorithm for the semi-adversarial paradigm that adapts to the true, unknown constraint faster, leading to uniformly improved regret bounds over existing methods.

Motivated by surprisingly good generalization properties of learned deep neural networks in overparameterized scenarios and by the related double descent phenomenon, this paper analyzes the relation between smoothness and low generalization error in an overparameterized linear learning problem. We study a random Fourier series model, where the task is to estimate the unknown Fourier coefficients from equidistant samples. We derive exact expressions for the generalization error of both plain and weighted least squares estimators. We show precisely how a bias towards smooth interpolants, in the form of weighted trigonometric interpolation, can lead to smaller generalization error in the overparameterized regime compared to the underparameterized regime. This provides insight into the power of overparameterization, which is common in modern machine learning.

The design of a metric between probability distributions is a longstanding problem motivated by numerous applications in Machine Learning. Focusing on continuous probability distributions on the Euclidean space $\mathbb{R}^d$, we introduce a novel pseudo-metric between probability distributions by leveraging the extension of univariate quantiles to multivariate spaces. Data depth is a nonparametric statistical tool that measures the centrality of any element $x\in\mathbb{R}^d$ with respect to (w.r.t.) a probability distribution or a data set. It is a natural median-oriented extension of the cumulative distribution function (cdf) to the multivariate case. Thus, its upper-level sets -- the depth-trimmed regions -- give rise to a definition of multivariate quantiles. The new pseudo-metric relies on the average of the Hausdorff distance between the depth-based quantile regions w.r.t. each distribution. Its good behavior w.r.t. major transformation groups, as well as its ability to factor out translations, are depicted. Robustness, an appealing feature of this pseudo-metric, is studied through the finite sample breakdown point. Moreover, we propose an efficient approximation method with linear time complexity w.r.t. the size of the data set and its dimension. The quality of this approximation as well as the performance of the proposed approach are illustrated in numerical experiments.

We show that for the problem of testing if a matrix $A \in F^{n \times n}$ has rank at most $d$, or requires changing an $\epsilon$-fraction of entries to have rank at most $d$, there is a non-adaptive query algorithm making $\widetilde{O}(d^2/\epsilon)$ queries. Our algorithm works for any field $F$. This improves upon the previous $O(d^2/\epsilon^2)$ bound (SODA'03), and bypasses an $\Omega(d^2/\epsilon^2)$ lower bound of (KDD'14) which holds if the algorithm is required to read a submatrix. Our algorithm is the first such algorithm which does not read a submatrix, and instead reads a carefully selected non-adaptive pattern of entries in rows and columns of $A$. We complement our algorithm with a matching query complexity lower bound for non-adaptive testers over any field. We also give tight bounds of $\widetilde{\Theta}(d^2)$ queries in the sensing model for which query access comes in the form of $\langle X_i, A\rangle:=tr(X_i^\top A)$; perhaps surprisingly these bounds do not depend on $\epsilon$. We next develop a novel property testing framework for testing numerical properties of a real-valued matrix $A$ more generally, which includes the stable rank, Schatten-$p$ norms, and SVD entropy. Specifically, we propose a bounded entry model, where $A$ is required to have entries bounded by $1$ in absolute value. We give upper and lower bounds for a wide range of problems in this model, and discuss connections to the sensing model above.

Implicit probabilistic models are models defined naturally in terms of a sampling procedure and often induces a likelihood function that cannot be expressed explicitly. We develop a simple method for estimating parameters in implicit models that does not require knowledge of the form of the likelihood function or any derived quantities, but can be shown to be equivalent to maximizing likelihood under some conditions. Our result holds in the non-asymptotic parametric setting, where both the capacity of the model and the number of data examples are finite. We also demonstrate encouraging experimental results.

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