The debate over whether to keep daylight savings time has gained attention in recent years, with interest in understanding how the length of exposure to sunlight may affect health outcomes. In this study, we analyzed cancer incidence rates in counties located in different longitudinal positions within time zones and across time zone borders in the contiguous United States. Using both linear and spatial regression models, we found that differences in cancer rates are not significant within time zones or near time zone borders, which challenges previous research. Furthermore, we examined breast, liver, lung, and prostate cancer rates and found that only breast and liver cancers show an increase in incidence from the eastern border to the west within a time zone, while prostate cancer shows the opposite trend. Our study provides insights into the potential difference on human health incurred by an additional hour of sunlight in the morning versus in the evening, which could inform the ongoing discussions about daylight savings time.
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Candidates arrive sequentially for an interview process which results in them being ranked relative to their predecessors. Based on the ranks available at each time, one must develop a decision mechanism that selects or dismisses the current candidate in an effort to maximize the chance to select the best. This classical version of the ``Secretary problem'' has been studied in depth using mostly combinatorial approaches, along with numerous other variants. In this work we consider a particular new version where during reviewing one is allowed to query an external expert to improve the probability of making the correct decision. Unlike existing formulations, we consider experts that are not necessarily infallible and may provide suggestions that can be faulty. For the solution of our problem we adopt a probabilistic methodology and view the querying times as consecutive stopping times which we optimize with the help of optimal stopping theory. For each querying time we must also design a mechanism to decide whether we should terminate the search at the querying time or not. This decision is straightforward under the usual assumption of infallible experts but, when experts are faulty, it has a far more intricate structure.
Time Series Classification (TSC) has received much attention in the past two decades and is still a crucial and challenging problem in data science and knowledge engineering. Indeed, along with the increasing availability of time series data, many TSC algorithms have been suggested by the research community in the literature. Besides state-of-the-art methods based on similarity measures, intervals, shapelets, dictionaries, deep learning methods or hybrid ensemble methods, several tools for extracting unsupervised informative summary statistics, aka features, from time series have been designed in the recent years. Originally designed for descriptive analysis and visualization of time series with informative and interpretable features, very few of these feature engineering tools have been benchmarked for TSC problems and compared with state-of-the-art TSC algorithms in terms of predictive performance. In this article, we aim at filling this gap and propose a simple TSC process to evaluate the potential predictive performance of the feature sets obtained with existing feature engineering tools. Thus, we present an empirical study of 11 feature engineering tools branched with 9 supervised classifiers over 112 time series data sets. The analysis of the results of more than 10000 learning experiments indicate that feature-based methods perform as accurately as current state-of-the-art TSC algorithms, and thus should rightfully be considered further in the TSC literature.
Deep neural networks have achieved outstanding performance over various tasks, but they have a critical issue: over-confident predictions even for completely unknown samples. Many studies have been proposed to successfully filter out these unknown samples, but they only considered narrow and specific tasks, referred to as misclassification detection, open-set recognition, or out-of-distribution detection. In this work, we argue that these tasks should be treated as fundamentally an identical problem because an ideal model should possess detection capability for all those tasks. Therefore, we introduce the unknown detection task, an integration of previous individual tasks, for a rigorous examination of the detection capability of deep neural networks on a wide spectrum of unknown samples. To this end, unified benchmark datasets on different scales were constructed and the unknown detection capabilities of existing popular methods were subject to comparison. We found that Deep Ensemble consistently outperforms the other approaches in detecting unknowns; however, all methods are only successful for a specific type of unknown. The reproducible code and benchmark datasets are available at //github.com/daintlab/unknown-detection-benchmarks .
Practitioners in diverse fields such as healthcare, economics and education are eager to apply machine learning to improve decision making. The cost and impracticality of performing experiments and a recent monumental increase in electronic record keeping has brought attention to the problem of evaluating decisions based on non-experimental observational data. This is the setting of this work. In particular, we study estimation of individual-level causal effects, such as a single patient's response to alternative medication, from recorded contexts, decisions and outcomes. We give generalization bounds on the error in estimated effects based on distance measures between groups receiving different treatments, allowing for sample re-weighting. We provide conditions under which our bound is tight and show how it relates to results for unsupervised domain adaptation. Led by our theoretical results, we devise representation learning algorithms that minimize our bound, by regularizing the representation's induced treatment group distance, and encourage sharing of information between treatment groups. We extend these algorithms to simultaneously learn a weighted representation to further reduce treatment group distances. Finally, an experimental evaluation on real and synthetic data shows the value of our proposed representation architecture and regularization scheme.
Adversarial attacks have been proven to be potential threats to Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), and many methods are proposed to defend against adversarial attacks. However, while enhancing the robustness, the clean accuracy will decline to a certain extent, implying a trade-off existed between the accuracy and robustness. In this paper, we firstly empirically find an obvious distinction between standard and robust models in the filters' weight distribution of the same architecture, and then theoretically explain this phenomenon in terms of the gradient regularization, which shows this difference is an intrinsic property for DNNs, and thus a static network architecture is difficult to improve the accuracy and robustness at the same time. Secondly, based on this observation, we propose a sample-wise dynamic network architecture named Adversarial Weight-Varied Network (AW-Net), which focuses on dealing with clean and adversarial examples with a ``divide and rule" weight strategy. The AW-Net dynamically adjusts network's weights based on regulation signals generated by an adversarial detector, which is directly influenced by the input sample. Benefiting from the dynamic network architecture, clean and adversarial examples can be processed with different network weights, which provides the potentiality to enhance the accuracy and robustness simultaneously. A series of experiments demonstrate that our AW-Net is architecture-friendly to handle both clean and adversarial examples and can achieve better trade-off performance than state-of-the-art robust models.
As robots take on roles in our society, it is important that their appearance, behaviour and personality are appropriate for the job they are given and are perceived favourably by the people with whom they interact. Here, we provide an extensive quantitative and qualitative study exploring robot personality but, importantly, with respect to individual human traits. Firstly, we show that we can accurately portray personality in a social robot, in terms of extroversion-introversion using vocal cues and linguistic features. Secondly, through garnering preferences and trust ratings for these different robot personalities, we establish that, for a Robo-Barista, an extrovert robot is preferred and trusted more than an introvert robot, regardless of the subject's own personality. Thirdly, we find that individual attitudes and predispositions towards robots do impact trust in the Robo-Baristas, and are therefore important considerations in addition to robot personality, roles and interaction context when designing any human-robot interaction study.
Learning visuomotor policies in simulation is much safer and cheaper than in the real world. However, due to discrepancies between the simulated and real data, simulator-trained policies often fail when transferred to real robots. One common approach to bridge the visual sim-to-real domain gap is domain randomization (DR). While previous work mainly evaluates DR for disembodied tasks, such as pose estimation and object detection, here we systematically explore visual domain randomization methods and benchmark them on a rich set of challenging robotic manipulation tasks. In particular, we propose an off-line proxy task of cube localization to select DR parameters for texture randomization, lighting randomization, variations of object colors and camera parameters. Notably, we demonstrate that DR parameters have similar impact on our off-line proxy task and on-line policies. We, hence, use off-line optimized DR parameters to train visuomotor policies in simulation and directly apply such policies to a real robot. Our approach achieves 93% success rate on average when tested on a diverse set of challenging manipulation tasks. Moreover, we evaluate the robustness of policies to visual variations in real scenes and show that our simulator-trained policies outperform policies learned using real but limited data. Code, simulation environment, real robot datasets and trained models are available at //www.di.ens.fr/willow/research/robust_s2r/.
When is heterogeneity in the composition of an autonomous robotic team beneficial and when is it detrimental? We investigate and answer this question in the context of a minimally viable model that examines the role of heterogeneous speeds in perimeter defense problems, where defenders share a total allocated speed budget. We consider two distinct problem settings and develop strategies based on dynamic programming and on local interaction rules. We present a theoretical analysis of both approaches and our results are extensively validated using simulations. Interestingly, our results demonstrate that the viability of heterogeneous teams depends on the amount of information available to the defenders. Moreover, our results suggest a universality property: across a wide range of problem parameters the optimal ratio of the speeds of the defenders remains nearly constant.
We consider the problem of explaining the predictions of graph neural networks (GNNs), which otherwise are considered as black boxes. Existing methods invariably focus on explaining the importance of graph nodes or edges but ignore the substructures of graphs, which are more intuitive and human-intelligible. In this work, we propose a novel method, known as SubgraphX, to explain GNNs by identifying important subgraphs. Given a trained GNN model and an input graph, our SubgraphX explains its predictions by efficiently exploring different subgraphs with Monte Carlo tree search. To make the tree search more effective, we propose to use Shapley values as a measure of subgraph importance, which can also capture the interactions among different subgraphs. To expedite computations, we propose efficient approximation schemes to compute Shapley values for graph data. Our work represents the first attempt to explain GNNs via identifying subgraphs explicitly and directly. Experimental results show that our SubgraphX achieves significantly improved explanations, while keeping computations at a reasonable level.
Object detection typically assumes that training and test data are drawn from an identical distribution, which, however, does not always hold in practice. Such a distribution mismatch will lead to a significant performance drop. In this work, we aim to improve the cross-domain robustness of object detection. We tackle the domain shift on two levels: 1) the image-level shift, such as image style, illumination, etc, and 2) the instance-level shift, such as object appearance, size, etc. We build our approach based on the recent state-of-the-art Faster R-CNN model, and design two domain adaptation components, on image level and instance level, to reduce the domain discrepancy. The two domain adaptation components are based on H-divergence theory, and are implemented by learning a domain classifier in adversarial training manner. The domain classifiers on different levels are further reinforced with a consistency regularization to learn a domain-invariant region proposal network (RPN) in the Faster R-CNN model. We evaluate our newly proposed approach using multiple datasets including Cityscapes, KITTI, SIM10K, etc. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach for robust object detection in various domain shift scenarios.
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