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Univariate Weibull distribution is a well-known lifetime distribution and has been widely used in reliability and survival analysis. In this paper, we introduce a new family of bivariate generalized Weibull (BGW) distributions, whose univariate marginals are exponentiated Weibull distribution. Different statistical quantiles like marginals, conditional distribution, conditional expectation, product moments, correlation and a measure component reliability are derived. Various measures of dependence and statistical properties along with ageing properties are examined. Further, the copula associated with BGW distribution and its various important properties are also considered. The methods of maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation are employed to estimate unknown parameters of the model. A Monte Carlo simulation and real data study are carried out to demonstrate the performance of the estimators and results have proven the effectiveness of the distribution in real-life situations

We propose a method for inference in generalised linear mixed models (GLMMs) and several extensions of these models. First, we extend the GLMM by allowing the distribution of the random components to be non-Gaussian, that is, assuming an absolutely continuous distribution with respect to the Lebesgue measure that is symmetric around zero, unimodal and with finite moments up to fourth-order. Second, we allow the conditional distribution to follow a dispersion model instead of exponential dispersion models. Finally, we extend these models to a multivariate framework where multiple responses are combined by imposing a multivariate absolute continuous distribution on the random components representing common clusters of observations in all the marginal models. Maximum likelihood inference in these models involves evaluating an integral that often cannot be computed in closed form. We suggest an inference method that predicts values of random components and does not involve the integration of conditional likelihood quantities. The multivariate GLMMs that we studied can be constructed with marginal GLMMs of different statistical nature, and at the same time, represent complex dependence structure providing a rather flexible tool for applications.

Factor Analysis is a popular method for modeling dependence in multivariate data. However, determining the number of factors and obtaining a sparse orientation of the loadings are still major challenges. In this paper, we propose a decision-theoretic approach that brings to light the relation between a sparse representation of the loadings and factor dimension. This relation is done through a summary from information contained in the multivariate posterior. To construct such summary, we introduce a three-step approach. In the first step, the model is fitted with a conservative factor dimension. In the second step, a series of sparse point-estimates, with a decreasing number of factors, is obtained by minimizing an expected predictive loss function. In step three, the degradation in utility in relation to the sparse loadings and factor dimensions is displayed in the posterior summary. The findings are illustrated with applications in classical data from the Factor Analysis literature. We used different prior choices and factor dimensions to demonstrate the flexibility of the proposed method.

There has been growing interest in the AI community for precise uncertainty quantification. Conditional density models f(y|x), where x represents potentially high-dimensional features, are an integral part of uncertainty quantification in prediction and Bayesian inference. However, it is challenging to assess conditional density estimates and gain insight into modes of failure. While existing diagnostic tools can determine whether an approximated conditional density is compatible overall with a data sample, they lack a principled framework for identifying, locating, and interpreting the nature of statistically significant discrepancies over the entire feature space. In this paper, we present rigorous and easy-to-interpret diagnostics such as (i) the "Local Coverage Test" (LCT), which distinguishes an arbitrarily misspecified model from the true conditional density of the sample, and (ii) "Amortized Local P-P plots" (ALP) which can quickly provide interpretable graphical summaries of distributional differences at any location x in the feature space. Our validation procedures scale to high dimensions and can potentially adapt to any type of data at hand. We demonstrate the effectiveness of LCT and ALP through a simulated experiment and applications to prediction and parameter inference for image data.

We consider the problem of minimizing a high-dimensional objective function, which may include a regularization term, using (possibly noisy) evaluations of the function. Such optimization is also called derivative-free, zeroth-order, or black-box optimization. We propose a new $\textbf{Z}$eroth-$\textbf{O}$rder $\textbf{R}$egularized $\textbf{O}$ptimization method, dubbed ZORO. When the underlying gradient is approximately sparse at an iterate, ZORO needs very few objective function evaluations to obtain a new iterate that decreases the objective function. We achieve this with an adaptive, randomized gradient estimator, followed by an inexact proximal-gradient scheme. Under a novel approximately sparse gradient assumption and various different convex settings, we show the (theoretical and empirical) convergence rate of ZORO is only logarithmically dependent on the problem dimension. Numerical experiments show that ZORO outperforms the existing methods with similar assumptions, on both synthetic and real datasets.

High-dimensional time series data appear in many scientific areas in the current data-rich environment. Analysis of such data poses new challenges to data analysts because of not only the complicated dynamic dependence between the series, but also the existence of aberrant observations, such as missing values, contaminated observations, and heavy-tailed distributions. For high-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models, we introduce a unified estimation procedure that is robust to model misspecification, heavy-tailed noise contamination, and conditional heteroscedasticity. The proposed methodology enjoys both statistical optimality and computational efficiency, and can handle many popular high-dimensional models, such as sparse, reduced-rank, banded, and network-structured VAR models. With proper regularization and data truncation, the estimation convergence rates are shown to be nearly optimal under a bounded fourth moment condition. Consistency of the proposed estimators is also established under a relaxed bounded $(2+2\epsilon)$-th moment condition, for some $\epsilon\in(0,1)$, with slower convergence rates associated with $\epsilon$. The efficacy of the proposed estimation methods is demonstrated by simulation and a real example.

Particle-based approximate Bayesian inference approaches such as Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD) combine the flexibility and convergence guarantees of sampling methods with the computational benefits of variational inference. In practice, SVGD relies on the choice of an appropriate kernel function, which impacts its ability to model the target distribution -- a challenging problem with only heuristic solutions. We propose Neural Variational Gradient Descent (NVGD), which is based on parameterizing the witness function of the Stein discrepancy by a deep neural network whose parameters are learned in parallel to the inference, mitigating the necessity to make any kernel choices whatsoever. We empirically evaluate our method on popular synthetic inference problems, real-world Bayesian linear regression, and Bayesian neural network inference.

In this paper, we proposed a multi-objective approach for the EEG Inverse Problem. This formulation does not need unknown parameters that involve empirical procedures. Due to the combinatorial characteristics of the problem, this alternative included evolutionary strategies to resolve it. The result is a Multi-objective Evolutionary Algorithm based on Anatomical Restrictions (MOEAAR) to estimate distributed solutions. The comparative tests were between this approach and 3 classic methods of regularization: LASSO, Ridge-L and ENET-L. In the experimental phase, regression models were selected to obtain sparse and distributed solutions. The analysis involved simulated data with different signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). The indicators for quality control were Localization Error, Spatial Resolution and Visibility. The MOEAAR evidenced better stability than the classic methods in the reconstruction and localization of the maximum activation. The norm L0 was used to estimate sparse solutions with the evolutionary approach and its results were relevant.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

The spatial convolution layer which is widely used in the Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) aggregates the feature vector of each node with the feature vectors of its neighboring nodes. The GNN is not aware of the locations of the nodes in the global structure of the graph and when the local structures corresponding to different nodes are similar to each other, the convolution layer maps all those nodes to similar or same feature vectors in the continuous feature space. Therefore, the GNN cannot distinguish two graphs if their difference is not in their local structures. In addition, when the nodes are not labeled/attributed the convolution layers can fail to distinguish even different local structures. In this paper, we propose an effective solution to address this problem of the GNNs. The proposed approach leverages a spatial representation of the graph which makes the neural network aware of the differences between the nodes and also their locations in the graph. The spatial representation which is equivalent to a point-cloud representation of the graph is obtained by a graph embedding method. Using the proposed approach, the local feature extractor of the GNN distinguishes similar local structures in different locations of the graph and the GNN infers the topological structure of the graph from the spatial distribution of the locally extracted feature vectors. Moreover, the spatial representation is utilized to simplify the graph down-sampling problem. A new graph pooling method is proposed and it is shown that the proposed pooling method achieves competitive or better results in comparison with the state-of-the-art methods.