Quantum machine learning is a promising programming paradigm for the optimization of quantum algorithms in the current era of noisy intermediate scale quantum (NISQ) computers. A fundamental challenge in quantum machine learning is generalization, as the designer targets performance under testing conditions, while having access only to limited training data. Existing generalization analyses, while identifying important general trends and scaling laws, cannot be used to assign reliable and informative "error bars" to the decisions made by quantum models. In this article, we propose a general methodology that can reliably quantify the uncertainty of quantum models, irrespective of the amount of training data, of the number of shots, of the ansatz, of the training algorithm, and of the presence of quantum hardware noise. The approach, which builds on probabilistic conformal prediction, turns an arbitrary, possibly small, number of shots from a pre-trained quantum model into a set prediction, e.g., an interval, that provably contains the true target with any desired coverage level. Experimental results confirm the theoretical calibration guarantees of the proposed framework, referred to as quantum conformal prediction.
相關內容
Complexity theory typically focuses on the difficulty of solving computational problems using classical inputs and outputs, even with a quantum computer. In the quantum world, it is natural to apply a different notion of complexity, namely the complexity of synthesizing quantum states. We investigate a state-synthesizing counterpart of the class NP, referred to as stateQMA, which is concerned with preparing certain quantum states through a polynomial-time quantum verifier with the aid of a single quantum message from an all-powerful but untrusted prover. This is a subclass of the class stateQIP recently introduced by Rosenthal and Yuen (ITCS 2022), which permits polynomially many interactions between the prover and the verifier. Our main result consists of error reduction of this class and its variants with an exponentially small gap or a bounded space, as well as how this class relates to other fundamental state synthesizing classes, i.e., states generated by uniform polynomial-time quantum circuits (stateBQP) and space-uniform polynomial-space quantum circuits (statePSPACE). Additionally, we demonstrate that stateQCMA is closed under perfect completeness. Our proof techniques are based on the quantum singular value transformation introduced by Gily\'en, Su, Low, and Wiebe (STOC 2019), and its adaption to achieve exponential precision with a bounded space.
Machine Learning and Deep Learning have achieved an impressive standard today, enabling us to answer questions that were inconceivable a few years ago. Besides these successes, it becomes clear, that beyond pure prediction, which is the primary strength of most supervised machine learning algorithms, the quantification of uncertainty is relevant and necessary as well. While first concepts and ideas in this direction have emerged in recent years, this paper adopts a conceptual perspective and examines possible sources of uncertainty. By adopting the viewpoint of a statistician, we discuss the concepts of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, which are more commonly associated with machine learning. The paper aims to formalize the two types of uncertainty and demonstrates that sources of uncertainty are miscellaneous and can not always be decomposed into aleatoric and epistemic. Drawing parallels between statistical concepts and uncertainty in machine learning, we also demonstrate the role of data and their influence on uncertainty.
Ranking is at the core of many artificial intelligence (AI) applications, including search engines, recommender systems, etc. Modern ranking systems are often constructed with learning-to-rank (LTR) models built from user behavior signals. While previous studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of using user behavior signals (e.g., clicks) as both features and labels of LTR algorithms, we argue that existing LTR algorithms that indiscriminately treat behavior and non-behavior signals in input features could lead to suboptimal performance in practice. Particularly because user behavior signals often have strong correlations with the ranking objective and can only be collected on items that have already been shown to users, directly using behavior signals in LTR could create an exploitation bias that hurts the system performance in the long run. To address the exploitation bias, we propose EBRank, an empirical Bayes-based uncertainty-aware ranking algorithm. Specifically, to overcome exploitation bias brought by behavior features in ranking models, EBRank uses a sole non-behavior feature based prior model to get a prior estimation of relevance. In the dynamic training and serving of ranking systems, EBRank uses the observed user behaviors to update posterior relevance estimation instead of concatenating behaviors as features in ranking models. Besides, EBRank additionally applies an uncertainty-aware exploration strategy to explore actively, collect user behaviors for empirical Bayesian modeling and improve ranking performance. Experiments on three public datasets show that EBRank is effective, practical and significantly outperforms state-of-the-art ranking algorithms.
Arrays of quantum dots (QDs) are a promising candidate system to realize scalable, coupled qubit systems and serve as a fundamental building block for quantum computers. In such semiconductor quantum systems, devices now have tens of individual electrostatic and dynamical voltages that must be carefully set to localize the system into the single-electron regime and to realize good qubit operational performance. The mapping of requisite QD locations and charges to gate voltages presents a challenging classical control problem. With an increasing number of QD qubits, the relevant parameter space grows sufficiently to make heuristic control unfeasible. In recent years, there has been considerable effort to automate device control that combines script-based algorithms with machine learning (ML) techniques. In this Colloquium, a comprehensive overview of the recent progress in the automation of QD device control is presented, with a particular emphasis on silicon- and GaAs-based QDs formed in two-dimensional electron gases. Combining physics-based modeling with modern numerical optimization and ML has proven effective in yielding efficient, scalable control. Further integration of theoretical, computational, and experimental efforts with computer science and ML holds vast potential in advancing semiconductor and other platforms for quantum computing.
As the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) components in cyber-physical systems is becoming more common, the need for reliable system architectures arises. While data-driven models excel at perception tasks, model outcomes are usually not dependable enough for safety-critical applications. In this work,we present a timeseries-aware uncertainty wrapper for dependable uncertainty estimates on timeseries data. The uncertainty wrapper is applied in combination with information fusion over successive model predictions in time. The application of the uncertainty wrapper is demonstrated with a traffic sign recognition use case. We show that it is possible to increase model accuracy through information fusion and additionally increase the quality of uncertainty estimates through timeseries-aware input quality features.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are powerful machine learning prediction models on graph-structured data. However, GNNs lack rigorous uncertainty estimates, limiting their reliable deployment in settings where the cost of errors is significant. We propose conformalized GNN (CF-GNN), extending conformal prediction (CP) to graph-based models for guaranteed uncertainty estimates. Given an entity in the graph, CF-GNN produces a prediction set/interval that provably contains the true label with pre-defined coverage probability (e.g. 90%). We establish a permutation invariance condition that enables the validity of CP on graph data and provide an exact characterization of the test-time coverage. Moreover, besides valid coverage, it is crucial to reduce the prediction set size/interval length for practical use. We observe a key connection between non-conformity scores and network structures, which motivates us to develop a topology-aware output correction model that learns to update the prediction and produces more efficient prediction sets/intervals. Extensive experiments show that CF-GNN achieves any pre-defined target marginal coverage while significantly reducing the prediction set/interval size by up to 74% over the baselines. It also empirically achieves satisfactory conditional coverage over various raw and network features.
Scientific machine learning has become an increasingly important tool in materials science and engineering. It is particularly well suited to tackle material problems involving many variables or to allow rapid construction of surrogates of material models, to name just a few. Mathematically, many problems in materials science and engineering can be cast as variational problems. However, handling of uncertainty, ever present in materials, in the context of variational formulations remains challenging for scientific machine learning. In this article, we propose a deep-learning-based numerical method for solving variational problems under uncertainty. Our approach seamlessly combines deep-learning approximation with Monte-Carlo sampling. The resulting numerical method is powerful yet remarkably simple. We assess its performance and accuracy on a number of variational problems.
Human-in-the-loop aims to train an accurate prediction model with minimum cost by integrating human knowledge and experience. Humans can provide training data for machine learning applications and directly accomplish some tasks that are hard for computers in the pipeline with the help of machine-based approaches. In this paper, we survey existing works on human-in-the-loop from a data perspective and classify them into three categories with a progressive relationship: (1) the work of improving model performance from data processing, (2) the work of improving model performance through interventional model training, and (3) the design of the system independent human-in-the-loop. Using the above categorization, we summarize major approaches in the field, along with their technical strengths/ weaknesses, we have simple classification and discussion in natural language processing, computer vision, and others. Besides, we provide some open challenges and opportunities. This survey intends to provide a high-level summarization for human-in-the-loop and motivates interested readers to consider approaches for designing effective human-in-the-loop solutions.
Due to their increasing spread, confidence in neural network predictions became more and more important. However, basic neural networks do not deliver certainty estimates or suffer from over or under confidence. Many researchers have been working on understanding and quantifying uncertainty in a neural network's prediction. As a result, different types and sources of uncertainty have been identified and a variety of approaches to measure and quantify uncertainty in neural networks have been proposed. This work gives a comprehensive overview of uncertainty estimation in neural networks, reviews recent advances in the field, highlights current challenges, and identifies potential research opportunities. It is intended to give anyone interested in uncertainty estimation in neural networks a broad overview and introduction, without presupposing prior knowledge in this field. A comprehensive introduction to the most crucial sources of uncertainty is given and their separation into reducible model uncertainty and not reducible data uncertainty is presented. The modeling of these uncertainties based on deterministic neural networks, Bayesian neural networks, ensemble of neural networks, and test-time data augmentation approaches is introduced and different branches of these fields as well as the latest developments are discussed. For a practical application, we discuss different measures of uncertainty, approaches for the calibration of neural networks and give an overview of existing baselines and implementations. Different examples from the wide spectrum of challenges in different fields give an idea of the needs and challenges regarding uncertainties in practical applications. Additionally, the practical limitations of current methods for mission- and safety-critical real world applications are discussed and an outlook on the next steps towards a broader usage of such methods is given.
The notion of uncertainty is of major importance in machine learning and constitutes a key element of machine learning methodology. In line with the statistical tradition, uncertainty has long been perceived as almost synonymous with standard probability and probabilistic predictions. Yet, due to the steadily increasing relevance of machine learning for practical applications and related issues such as safety requirements, new problems and challenges have recently been identified by machine learning scholars, and these problems may call for new methodological developments. In particular, this includes the importance of distinguishing between (at least) two different types of uncertainty, often refereed to as aleatoric and epistemic. In this paper, we provide an introduction to the topic of uncertainty in machine learning as well as an overview of hitherto attempts at handling uncertainty in general and formalizing this distinction in particular.
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191