We introduce an original method of multidimensional ridge penalization in functional local linear regressions. The nonparametric regression of functional data is extended from its multivariate counterpart, and is known to be sensitive to the choice of $J$, where $J$ is the dimension of the projection subspace of the data. Under multivariate setting, a roughness penalty is helpful for variance reduction. However, among the limited works covering roughness penalty under the functional setting, most only use a single scalar for tuning. Our new approach proposes a class of data-adaptive ridge penalties, meaning that the model automatically adjusts the structure of the penalty according to the data sets. This structure has $J$ free parameters and enables a quadratic programming search for optimal tuning parameters that minimize the estimated mean squared error (MSE) of prediction, and is capable of applying different roughness penalty levels to each of the $J$ basis. The strength of the method in prediction accuracy and variance reduction with finite data is demonstrated through multiple simulation scenarios and two real-data examples. Its asymptotic performance is proved and compared to the unpenalized functional local linear regressions.
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Overparametrized neural networks tend to perfectly fit noisy training data yet generalize well on test data. Inspired by this empirical observation, recent work has sought to understand this phenomenon of benign overfitting or harmless interpolation in the much simpler linear model. Previous theoretical work critically assumes that either the data features are statistically independent or the input data is high-dimensional; this precludes general nonparametric settings with structured feature maps. In this paper, we present a general and flexible framework for upper bounding regression and classification risk in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. A key contribution is that our framework describes precise sufficient conditions on the data Gram matrix under which harmless interpolation occurs. Our results recover prior independent-features results (with a much simpler analysis), but they furthermore show that harmless interpolation can occur in more general settings such as features that are a bounded orthonormal system. Furthermore, our results show an asymptotic separation between classification and regression performance in a manner that was previously only shown for Gaussian features.
We study the optimal batch-regret tradeoff for batch linear contextual bandits. For any batch number $M$, number of actions $K$, time horizon $T$, and dimension $d$, we provide an algorithm and prove its regret guarantee, which, due to technical reasons, features a two-phase expression as the time horizon $T$ grows. We also prove a lower bound theorem that surprisingly shows the optimality of our two-phase regret upper bound (up to logarithmic factors) in the \emph{full range} of the problem parameters, therefore establishing the exact batch-regret tradeoff. Compared to the recent work \citep{ruan2020linear} which showed that $M = O(\log \log T)$ batches suffice to achieve the asymptotically minimax-optimal regret without the batch constraints, our algorithm is simpler and easier for practical implementation. Furthermore, our algorithm achieves the optimal regret for all $T \geq d$, while \citep{ruan2020linear} requires that $T$ greater than an unrealistically large polynomial of $d$. Along our analysis, we also prove a new matrix concentration inequality with dependence on their dynamic upper bounds, which, to the best of our knowledge, is the first of its kind in literature and maybe of independent interest.
Precision medicine aims to tailor treatment decisions according to patients' characteristics. G-estimation and dynamic weighted ordinary least squares (dWOLS) are double robust statistical methods that can be used to identify optimal adaptive treatment strategies. They require both a model for the outcome and a model for the treatment and are consistent if at least one of these models is correctly specified. It is underappreciated that these methods additionally require modeling all existing treatment-confounder interactions to yield consistent estimators. Identifying partially adaptive treatment strategies that tailor treatments according to only a few covariates, ignoring some interactions, may be preferable in practice. It has been proposed to combine inverse probability weighting and G-estimation to address this issue, but we argue that the resulting estimator is not expected to be double robust. Building on G-estimation and dWOLS, we propose alternative estimators of partially adaptive strategies and demonstrate their double robustness. We investigate and compare the empirical performance of six estimators in a simulation study. As expected, estimators combining inverse probability weighting with either G-estimation or dWOLS are biased when the treatment model is incorrectly specified. The other estimators are unbiased if either the treatment or the outcome model are correctly specified and have similar standard errors. Using data maintained by the Centre des Maladies du Sein, the methods are illustrated to estimate a partially adaptive treatment strategy for tailoring hormonal therapy use in breast cancer patients according to their estrogen receptor status and body mass index. R software implementing our estimators is provided.
We present a new local-search algorithm for the $k$-median clustering problem. We show that local optima for this algorithm give a $(2.836+\epsilon)$-approximation; our result improves upon the $(3+\epsilon)$-approximate local-search algorithm of Arya et al. [STOC 01]. Moreover, a computer-aided analysis of a natural extension suggests that this approach may lead to an improvement over the best-known approximation guarantee for the problem. The new ingredient in our algorithm is the use of a potential function based on both the closest and second-closest facilities to each client. Specifically, the potential is the sum over all clients, of the distance of the client to its closest facility, plus (a small constant times) the truncated distance to its second-closest facility. We move from one solution to another only if the latter can be obtained by swapping a constant number of facilities, and has a smaller potential than the former. This refined potential allows us to avoid the bad local optima given by Arya et al. for the local-search algorithm based only on the cost of the solution.
We propose a novel deep learning based surrogate model for solving high-dimensional uncertainty quantification and uncertainty propagation problems. The proposed deep learning architecture is developed by integrating the well-known U-net architecture with the Gaussian Gated Linear Network (GGLN) and referred to as the Gated Linear Network induced U-net or GLU-net. The proposed GLU-net treats the uncertainty propagation problem as an image to image regression and hence, is extremely data efficient. Additionally, it also provides estimates of the predictive uncertainty. The network architecture of GLU-net is less complex with 44\% fewer parameters than the contemporary works. We illustrate the performance of the proposed GLU-net in solving the Darcy flow problem under uncertainty under the sparse data scenario. We consider the stochastic input dimensionality to be up to 4225. Benchmark results are generated using the vanilla Monte Carlo simulation. We observe the proposed GLU-net to be accurate and extremely efficient even when no information about the structure of the inputs is provided to the network. Case studies are performed by varying the training sample size and stochastic input dimensionality to illustrate the robustness of the proposed approach.
Linear regression on a set of observations linked by a network has been an essential tool in modeling the relationship between response and covariates with additional network data. Despite its wide range of applications in many areas, such as in social sciences and health-related research, the problem has not been well-studied in statistics so far. Previous methods either lack inference tools or rely on restrictive assumptions on social effects and usually assume that networks are observed without errors, which is unrealistic in many problems. This paper proposes a linear regression model with nonparametric network effects. The model does not assume that the relational data or network structure is exactly observed; thus, the method can be provably robust to a certain network perturbation level. A set of asymptotic inference results is established under a general requirement of the network observational errors, and the robustness of this method is studied in the specific setting when the errors come from random network models. We discover a phase-transition phenomenon of the inference validity concerning the network density when no prior knowledge of the network model is available while also showing a significant improvement achieved by knowing the network model. As a by-product of this analysis, we derive a rate-optimal concentration bound for random subspace projection that may be of independent interest. Extensive simulation studies are conducted to verify these theoretical results and demonstrate the advantage of the proposed method over existing work in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency under different data-generating models. The method is then applied to middle school students' network data to study the effectiveness of educational workshops in reducing school conflicts.
In online learning problems, exploiting low variance plays an important role in obtaining tight performance guarantees yet is challenging because variances are often not known a priori. Recently, a considerable progress has been made by Zhang et al. (2021) where they obtain a variance-adaptive regret bound for linear bandits without knowledge of the variances and a horizon-free regret bound for linear mixture Markov decision processes (MDPs). In this paper, we present novel analyses that improve their regret bounds significantly. For linear bandits, we achieve $\tilde O(d^{1.5}\sqrt{\sum_{k}^K \sigma_k^2} + d^2)$ where $d$ is the dimension of the features, $K$ is the time horizon, and $\sigma_k^2$ is the noise variance at time step $k$, and $\tilde O$ ignores polylogarithmic dependence, which is a factor of $d^3$ improvement. For linear mixture MDPs, we achieve a horizon-free regret bound of $\tilde O(d^{1.5}\sqrt{K} + d^3)$ where $d$ is the number of base models and $K$ is the number of episodes. This is a factor of $d^3$ improvement in the leading term and $d^6$ in the lower order term. Our analysis critically relies on a novel elliptical potential `count' lemma. This lemma allows a peeling-based regret analysis, which can be of independent interest.
Estimating the structures at high or low quantiles has become an important subject and attracted increasing attention across numerous fields. However, due to data sparsity at tails, it usually is a challenging task to obtain reliable estimation, especially for high-dimensional data. This paper suggests a flexible parametric structure to tails, and this enables us to conduct the estimation at quantile levels with rich observations and then to extrapolate the fitted structures to far tails. The proposed model depends on some quantile indices and hence is called the quantile index regression. Moreover, the composite quantile regression method is employed to obtain non-crossing quantile estimators, and this paper further establishes their theoretical properties, including asymptotic normality for the case with low-dimensional covariates and non-asymptotic error bounds for that with high-dimensional covariates. Simulation studies and an empirical example are presented to illustrate the usefulness of the new model.
We consider nonparametric prediction with multiple covariates, in particular categorical or functional predictors, or a mixture of both. The method proposed bases on an extension of the Nadaraya-Watson estimator where a kernel function is applied on a linear combination of distance measures each calculated on single covariates, with weights being estimated from the training data. The dependent variable can be categorical (binary or multi-class) or continuous, thus we consider both classification and regression problems. The methodology presented is illustrated and evaluated on artificial and real world data. Particularly it is observed that prediction accuracy can be increased, and irrelevant, noise variables can be identified/removed by "downgrading" the corresponding distance measures in a completely data-driven way.
Similarity/Distance measures play a key role in many machine learning, pattern recognition, and data mining algorithms, which leads to the emergence of metric learning field. Many metric learning algorithms learn a global distance function from data that satisfy the constraints of the problem. However, in many real-world datasets that the discrimination power of features varies in the different regions of input space, a global metric is often unable to capture the complexity of the task. To address this challenge, local metric learning methods are proposed that learn multiple metrics across the different regions of input space. Some advantages of these methods are high flexibility and the ability to learn a nonlinear mapping but typically achieves at the expense of higher time requirement and overfitting problem. To overcome these challenges, this research presents an online multiple metric learning framework. Each metric in the proposed framework is composed of a global and a local component learned simultaneously. Adding a global component to a local metric efficiently reduce the problem of overfitting. The proposed framework is also scalable with both sample size and the dimension of input data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first local online similarity/distance learning framework based on PA (Passive/Aggressive). In addition, for scalability with the dimension of input data, DRP (Dual Random Projection) is extended for local online learning in the present work. It enables our methods to be run efficiently on high-dimensional datasets, while maintains their predictive performance. The proposed framework provides a straightforward local extension to any global online similarity/distance learning algorithm based on PA.
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