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The projection predictive variable selection is a decision-theoretically justified Bayesian variable selection approach achieving an outstanding trade-off between predictive performance and sparsity. Its projection problem is not easy to solve in general because it is based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence from a restricted posterior predictive distribution of the so-called reference model to the parameter-conditional predictive distribution of a candidate model. Previous work showed how this projection problem can be solved for response families employed in generalized linear models and how an approximate latent-space approach can be used for many other response families. Here, we present an exact projection method for all response families with discrete and finite support, called the augmented-data projection. A simulation study for an ordinal response family shows that the proposed method performs better than or similarly to the previously proposed approximate latent-space projection. The cost of the slightly better performance of the augmented-data projection is a substantial increase in runtime. Thus, in such cases, we recommend the latent projection in the early phase of a model-building workflow and the augmented-data projection for final results. The ordinal response family from our simulation study is supported by both projection methods, but we also include a real-world cancer subtyping example with a nominal response family, a case that is not supported by the latent projection.

Energy efficiency and reliability have long been crucial factors for ensuring cost-effective and safe missions in autonomous systems computers. With the rapid evolution of industries such as space robotics and advanced air mobility, the demand for these low size, weight, and power (SWaP) computers has grown significantly. This study focuses on introducing an estimation framework based on spike coding theories and spiking neural networks (SNN), leveraging the efficiency and scalability of neuromorphic computers. Therefore, we propose an SNN-based Kalman filter (KF), a fundamental and widely adopted optimal strategy for well-defined linear systems. Furthermore, based on the modified sliding innovation filter (MSIF) we present a robust strategy called SNN-MSIF. Notably, the weight matrices of the networks are designed according to the system model, eliminating the need for learning. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed strategies, we compare them to their algorithmic counterparts, namely the KF and the MSIF, using Monte Carlo simulations. Additionally, we assess the robustness of SNN-MSIF by comparing it to SNN-KF in the presence of modeling uncertainties and neuron loss. Our results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methods and highlight the superior performance of SNN-MSIF in terms of accuracy and robustness. Furthermore, the spiking pattern observed from the networks serves as evidence of the energy efficiency achieved by the proposed methods, as they exhibited an impressive reduction of approximately 97 percent in emitted spikes compared to possible spikes.

The widespread use of maximum Jeffreys'-prior penalized likelihood in binomial-response generalized linear models, and in logistic regression, in particular, are supported by the results of Kosmidis and Firth (2021, Biometrika), who show that the resulting estimates are also always finite-valued, even in cases where the maximum likelihood estimates are not, which is a practical issue regardless of the size of the data set. In logistic regression, the implied adjusted score equations are formally bias-reducing in asymptotic frameworks with a fixed number of parameters and appear to deliver a substantial reduction in the persistent bias of the maximum likelihood estimator in high-dimensional settings where the number of parameters grows asymptotically linearly and slower than the number of observations. In this work, we develop and present two new variants of iteratively reweighted least squares for estimating generalized linear models with adjusted score equations for mean bias reduction and maximization of the likelihood penalized by a positive power of the Jeffreys-prior penalty, which eliminate the requirement of storing $O(n)$ quantities in memory, and can operate with data sets that exceed computer memory or even hard drive capacity. We achieve that through incremental QR decompositions, which enable IWLS iterations to have access only to data chunks of predetermined size. We assess the procedures through a real-data application with millions of observations, and in high-dimensional logistic regression, where a large-scale simulation experiment produces concrete evidence for the existence of a simple adjustment to the maximum Jeffreys'-penalized likelihood estimates that delivers high accuracy in terms of signal recovery even in cases where estimates from ML and other recently-proposed corrective methods do not exist.

Sequential data collection has emerged as a widely adopted technique for enhancing the efficiency of data gathering processes. Despite its advantages, such data collection mechanism often introduces complexities to the statistical inference procedure. For instance, the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator in an adaptive linear regression model can exhibit non-normal asymptotic behavior, posing challenges for accurate inference and interpretation. In this paper, we propose a general method for constructing debiased estimator which remedies this issue. It makes use of the idea of adaptive linear estimating equations, and we establish theoretical guarantees of asymptotic normality, supplemented by discussions on achieving near-optimal asymptotic variance. A salient feature of our estimator is that in the context of multi-armed bandits, our estimator retains the non-asymptotic performance of the least square estimator while obtaining asymptotic normality property. Consequently, this work helps connect two fruitful paradigms of adaptive inference: a) non-asymptotic inference using concentration inequalities and b) asymptotic inference via asymptotic normality.

We introduce a new method of estimation of parameters in semiparametric and nonparametric models. The method is based on estimating equations that are $U$-statistics in the observations. The $U$-statistics are based on higher order influence functions that extend ordinary linear influence functions of the parameter of interest, and represent higher derivatives of this parameter. For parameters for which the representation cannot be perfect the method leads to a bias-variance trade-off, and results in estimators that converge at a slower than $\sqrt n$-rate. In a number of examples the resulting rate can be shown to be optimal. We are particularly interested in estimating parameters in models with a nuisance parameter of high dimension or low regularity, where the parameter of interest cannot be estimated at $\sqrt n$-rate, but we also consider efficient $\sqrt n$-estimation using novel nonlinear estimators. The general approach is applied in detail to the example of estimating a mean response when the response is not always observed.

Analysis of high-dimensional data, where the number of covariates is larger than the sample size, is a topic of current interest. In such settings, an important goal is to estimate the signal level $\tau^2$ and noise level $\sigma^2$, i.e., to quantify how much variation in the response variable can be explained by the covariates, versus how much of the variation is left unexplained. This thesis considers the estimation of these quantities in a semi-supervised setting, where for many observations only the vector of covariates $X$ is given with no responses $Y$. Our main research question is: how can one use the unlabeled data to better estimate $\tau^2$ and $\sigma^2$? We consider two frameworks: a linear regression model and a linear projection model in which linearity is not assumed. In the first framework, while linear regression is used, no sparsity assumptions on the coefficients are made. In the second framework, the linearity assumption is also relaxed and we aim to estimate the signal and noise levels defined by the linear projection. We first propose a naive estimator which is unbiased and consistent, under some assumptions, in both frameworks. We then show how the naive estimator can be improved by using zero-estimators, where a zero-estimator is a statistic arising from the unlabeled data, whose expected value is zero. In the first framework, we calculate the optimal zero-estimator improvement and discuss ways to approximate the optimal improvement. In the second framework, such optimality does no longer hold and we suggest two zero-estimators that improve the naive estimator although not necessarily optimally. Furthermore, we show that our approach reduces the variance for general initial estimators and we present an algorithm that potentially improves any initial estimator. Lastly, we consider four datasets and study the performance of our suggested methods.

Safety is one of the fundamental challenges in control theory. Recently, multi-step optimal control problems for discrete-time dynamical systems were formulated to enforce stability, while subject to input constraints as well as safety-critical requirements using discrete-time control barrier functions within a model predictive control (MPC) framework. Existing work usually focus on the feasibility or the safety for the optimization problem, and the majority of the existing work restrict the discussions to relative-degree one control barrier functions. Additionally, the real-time computation is challenging when a large horizon is considered in the MPC problem for relative-degree one or high-order control barrier functions. In this paper, we propose a framework that solves the safety-critical MPC problem in an iterative optimization, which is applicable for any relative-degree control barrier functions. In the proposed formulation, the nonlinear system dynamics as well as the safety constraints modeled as discrete-time high-order control barrier functions (DHOCBF) are linearized at each time step. Our formulation is generally valid for any control barrier function with an arbitrary relative-degree. The advantages of fast computational performance with safety guarantee are analyzed and validated with numerical results.

We study sensor/agent data collection and collaboration policies for parameter estimation, accounting for resource constraints and correlation between observations collected by distinct sensors/agents. Specifically, we consider a group of sensors/agents each samples from different variables of a multivariate Gaussian distribution and has different estimation objectives, and we formulate a sensor/agent's data collection and collaboration policy design problem as a Fisher information maximization (or Cramer-Rao bound minimization) problem. When the knowledge of correlation between variables is available, we analytically identify two particular scenarios: (1) where the knowledge of the correlation between samples cannot be leveraged for collaborative estimation purposes and (2) where the optimal data collection policy involves investing scarce resources to collaboratively sample and transfer information that is not of immediate interest and whose statistics are already known, with the sole goal of increasing the confidence on the estimate of the parameter of interest. When the knowledge of certain correlation is unavailable but collaboration may still be worthwhile, we propose novel ways to apply multi-armed bandit algorithms to learn the optimal data collection and collaboration policy in our distributed parameter estimation problem and demonstrate that the proposed algorithms, DOUBLE-F, DOUBLE-Z, UCB-F, UCB-Z, are effective through simulations.

When is heterogeneity in the composition of an autonomous robotic team beneficial and when is it detrimental? We investigate and answer this question in the context of a minimally viable model that examines the role of heterogeneous speeds in perimeter defense problems, where defenders share a total allocated speed budget. We consider two distinct problem settings and develop strategies based on dynamic programming and on local interaction rules. We present a theoretical analysis of both approaches and our results are extensively validated using simulations. Interestingly, our results demonstrate that the viability of heterogeneous teams depends on the amount of information available to the defenders. Moreover, our results suggest a universality property: across a wide range of problem parameters the optimal ratio of the speeds of the defenders remains nearly constant.

With the rapid increase of large-scale, real-world datasets, it becomes critical to address the problem of long-tailed data distribution (i.e., a few classes account for most of the data, while most classes are under-represented). Existing solutions typically adopt class re-balancing strategies such as re-sampling and re-weighting based on the number of observations for each class. In this work, we argue that as the number of samples increases, the additional benefit of a newly added data point will diminish. We introduce a novel theoretical framework to measure data overlap by associating with each sample a small neighboring region rather than a single point. The effective number of samples is defined as the volume of samples and can be calculated by a simple formula $(1-\beta^{n})/(1-\beta)$, where $n$ is the number of samples and $\beta \in [0,1)$ is a hyperparameter. We design a re-weighting scheme that uses the effective number of samples for each class to re-balance the loss, thereby yielding a class-balanced loss. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on artificially induced long-tailed CIFAR datasets and large-scale datasets including ImageNet and iNaturalist. Our results show that when trained with the proposed class-balanced loss, the network is able to achieve significant performance gains on long-tailed datasets.