Selecting the right set of hyperparameters is crucial in time series forecasting. The classical temporal cross-validation framework for hyperparameter optimization (HPO) often leads to poor test performance because of a possible mismatch between validation and test periods. To address this test-validation mismatch, we propose a novel technique, H-Pro to drive HPO via test proxies by exploiting data hierarchies often associated with time series datasets. Since higher-level aggregated time series often show less irregularity and better predictability as compared to the lowest-level time series which can be sparse and intermittent, we optimize the hyperparameters of the lowest-level base-forecaster by leveraging the proxy forecasts for the test period generated from the forecasters at higher levels. H-Pro can be applied on any off-the-shelf machine learning model to perform HPO. We validate the efficacy of our technique with extensive empirical evaluation on five publicly available hierarchical forecasting datasets. Our approach outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods in Tourism, Wiki, and Traffic datasets, and achieves competitive result in Tourism-L dataset, without any model-specific enhancements. Moreover, our method outperforms the winning method of the M5 forecast accuracy competition.
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Many real-world auctions are dynamic processes, in which bidders interact and report information over multiple rounds with the auctioneer. The sequential decision making aspect paired with imperfect information renders analyzing the incentive properties of such auctions much more challenging than in the static case. It is clear that bidders often have incentives for manipulation, but the full scope of such strategies is not well-understood. We aim to develop a tool for better understanding the incentive properties in dynamic auctions by using reinforcement learning to learn the optimal strategic behavior for an auction participant. We frame the decision problem as a Markov Decision Process, show its relation to multi-task reinforcement learning and use a soft actor-critic algorithm with experience relabeling to best-respond against several known analytical equilibria as well as to find profitable deviations against exploitable bidder strategies.
State space models (SSMs) are widely used to describe dynamic systems. However, when the likelihood of the observations is intractable, parameter inference for SSMs cannot be easily carried out using standard Markov chain Monte Carlo or sequential Monte Carlo methods. In this paper, we propose a particle Gibbs sampler as a general strategy to handle SSMs with intractable likelihoods in the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) setting. The proposed sampler incorporates a conditional auxiliary particle filter, which can help mitigate the weight degeneracy often encountered in ABC. To illustrate the methodology, we focus on a classic stochastic volatility model (SVM) used in finance and econometrics for analyzing and interpreting volatility. Simulation studies demonstrate the accuracy of our sampler for SVM parameter inference, compared to existing particle Gibbs samplers based on the conditional bootstrap filter. As a real data application, we apply the proposed sampler for fitting an SVM to S&P 500 Index time-series data during the 2008 financial crisis.
Labeling datasets for supervised object detection is a dull and time-consuming task. Errors can be easily introduced during annotation and overlooked during review, yielding inaccurate benchmarks and performance degradation of deep neural networks trained on noisy labels. In this work, we for the first time introduce a benchmark for label error detection methods on object detection datasets as well as a label error detection method and a number of baselines. We simulate four different types of randomly introduced label errors on train and test sets of well-labeled object detection datasets. For our label error detection method we assume a two-stage object detector to be given and consider the sum of both stages' classification and regression losses. The losses are computed with respect to the predictions and the noisy labels including simulated label errors, aiming at detecting the latter. We compare our method to three baselines: a naive one without deep learning, the object detector's score and the entropy of the classification softmax distribution. We outperform all baselines and demonstrate that among the considered methods, ours is the only one that detects label errors of all four types efficiently. Furthermore, we detect real label errors a) on commonly used test datasets in object detection and b) on a proprietary dataset. In both cases we achieve low false positives rates, i.e., we detect label errors with a precision for a) of up to 71.5% and for b) with 97%.
Token uniformity is commonly observed in transformer-based models, in which different tokens share a large proportion of similar information after going through stacked multiple self-attention layers in a transformer. In this paper, we propose to use the distribution of singular values of outputs of each transformer layer to characterise the phenomenon of token uniformity and empirically illustrate that a less skewed singular value distribution can alleviate the `token uniformity' problem. Base on our observations, we define several desirable properties of singular value distributions and propose a novel transformation function for updating the singular values. We show that apart from alleviating token uniformity, the transformation function should preserve the local neighbourhood structure in the original embedding space. Our proposed singular value transformation function is applied to a range of transformer-based language models such as BERT, ALBERT, RoBERTa and DistilBERT, and improved performance is observed in semantic textual similarity evaluation and a range of GLUE tasks. Our source code is available at //github.com/hanqi-qi/tokenUni.git.
Cognitive diagnosis models have been popularly used in fields such as education, psychology, and social sciences. While parametric likelihood estimation is a prevailing method for fitting cognitive diagnosis models, nonparametric methodologies are attracting increasing attention due to their ease of implementation and robustness, particularly when sample sizes are relatively small. However, existing clustering consistency results of the nonparametric estimation methods often rely on certain restrictive conditions, which may not be easily satisfied in practice. In this article, the clustering consistency of the general nonparametric classification method is reestablished under weaker and more practical conditions.
We devise a version of Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) on a denotational domain of streams. We investigate this logic in terms of domain theory, (point-free) topology and geometric logic. This yields the first steps toward an extension of the "Domain Theory in Logical Form" paradigm to temporal liveness properties. We show that the negation-free formulae of LTL induce sober subspaces of streams, but that this is in general not the case in presence of negation. We propose a direct, inductive, translation of negation-free LTL to geometric logic. This translation reflects the approximations used to compute the usual fixpoint representations of LTL modalities. As a motivating example, we handle a natural input-output specification for the usual filter function on streams.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) demonstrate their significance by effectively modeling complex interrelationships within graph-structured data. To enhance the credibility and robustness of GNNs, it becomes exceptionally crucial to bolster their ability to capture causal relationships. However, despite recent advancements that have indeed strengthened GNNs from a causal learning perspective, conducting an in-depth analysis specifically targeting the causal modeling prowess of GNNs remains an unresolved issue. In order to comprehensively analyze various GNN models from a causal learning perspective, we constructed an artificially synthesized dataset with known and controllable causal relationships between data and labels. The rationality of the generated data is further ensured through theoretical foundations. Drawing insights from analyses conducted using our dataset, we introduce a lightweight and highly adaptable GNN module designed to strengthen GNNs' causal learning capabilities across a diverse range of tasks. Through a series of experiments conducted on both synthetic datasets and other real-world datasets, we empirically validate the effectiveness of the proposed module.
Stochastic programs where the uncertainty distribution must be inferred from noisy data samples are considered. The stochastic programs are approximated with distributionally-robust optimizations that minimize the worst-case expected cost over ambiguity sets, i.e., sets of distributions that are sufficiently compatible with the observed data. In this paper, the ambiguity sets capture the set of probability distributions whose convolution with the noise distribution remains within a ball centered at the empirical noisy distribution of data samples parameterized by the total variation distance. Using the prescribed ambiguity set, the solutions of the distributionally-robust optimizations converge to the solutions of the original stochastic programs when the numbers of the data samples grow to infinity. Therefore, the proposed distributionally-robust optimization problems are asymptotically consistent. This is proved under the assumption that the distribution of the noise is uniformly diagonally dominant. More importantly, the distributionally-robust optimization problems can be cast as tractable convex optimization problems and are therefore amenable to large-scale stochastic problems.
Knowledge graph completion aims to predict missing relations between entities in a knowledge graph. While many different methods have been proposed, there is a lack of a unifying framework that would lead to state-of-the-art results. Here we develop PathCon, a knowledge graph completion method that harnesses four novel insights to outperform existing methods. PathCon predicts relations between a pair of entities by: (1) Considering the Relational Context of each entity by capturing the relation types adjacent to the entity and modeled through a novel edge-based message passing scheme; (2) Considering the Relational Paths capturing all paths between the two entities; And, (3) adaptively integrating the Relational Context and Relational Path through a learnable attention mechanism. Importantly, (4) in contrast to conventional node-based representations, PathCon represents context and path only using the relation types, which makes it applicable in an inductive setting. Experimental results on knowledge graph benchmarks as well as our newly proposed dataset show that PathCon outperforms state-of-the-art knowledge graph completion methods by a large margin. Finally, PathCon is able to provide interpretable explanations by identifying relations that provide the context and paths that are important for a given predicted relation.
High spectral dimensionality and the shortage of annotations make hyperspectral image (HSI) classification a challenging problem. Recent studies suggest that convolutional neural networks can learn discriminative spatial features, which play a paramount role in HSI interpretation. However, most of these methods ignore the distinctive spectral-spatial characteristic of hyperspectral data. In addition, a large amount of unlabeled data remains an unexploited gold mine for efficient data use. Therefore, we proposed an integration of generative adversarial networks (GANs) and probabilistic graphical models for HSI classification. Specifically, we used a spectral-spatial generator and a discriminator to identify land cover categories of hyperspectral cubes. Moreover, to take advantage of a large amount of unlabeled data, we adopted a conditional random field to refine the preliminary classification results generated by GANs. Experimental results obtained using two commonly studied datasets demonstrate that the proposed framework achieved encouraging classification accuracy using a small number of data for training.
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