Confounder selection, namely choosing a set of covariates to control for confounding between a treatment and an outcome, is arguably the most important step in the design of observational studies. Previous methods, such as Pearl's celebrated back-door criterion, typically require pre-specifying a causal graph, which can often be difficult in practice. We propose an interactive procedure for confounder selection that does not require pre-specifying the graph or the set of observed variables. This procedure iteratively expands the causal graph by finding what we call "primary adjustment sets" for a pair of possibly confounded variables. This can be viewed as inverting a sequence of latent projections of the underlying causal graph. Structural information in the form of primary adjustment sets is elicited from the user, bit by bit, until either a set of covariates are found to control for confounding or it can be determined that no such set exists. Other information, such as the causal relations between confounders, is not required by the procedure. We show that if the user correctly specifies the primary adjustment sets in every step, our procedure is both sound and complete.
相關內容
Sample selection models represent a common methodology for correcting bias induced by data missing not at random. It is well known that these models are not empirically identifiable without exclusion restrictions. In other words, some variables predictive of missingness do not affect the outcome model of interest. The drive to establish this requirement often leads to the inclusion of irrelevant variables in the model. A recent proposal uses adaptive LASSO to circumvent this problem, but its performance depends on the so-called covariance assumption, which can be violated in small to moderate samples. Additionally, there are no tools yet for post-selection inference for this model. To address these challenges, we propose two families of spike-and-slab priors to conduct Bayesian variable selection in sample selection models. These prior structures allow for constructing a Gibbs sampler with tractable conditionals, which is scalable to the dimensions of practical interest. We illustrate the performance of the proposed methodology through a simulation study and present a comparison against adaptive LASSO and stepwise selection. We also provide two applications using publicly available real data. An implementation and code to reproduce the results in this paper can be found at //github.com/adam-iqbal/selection-spike-slab
Permutation tests are widely recognized as robust alternatives to tests based on normal theory. Random permutation tests have been frequently employed to assess the significance of variables in linear models. Despite their widespread use, existing random permutation tests lack finite-sample and assumption-free guarantees for controlling type I error in partial correlation tests. To address this ongoing challenge, we have developed a conformal test through permutation-augmented regressions, which we refer to as PALMRT. PALMRT not only achieves power competitive with conventional methods but also provides reliable control of type I errors at no more than $2\alpha$, given any targeted level $\alpha$, for arbitrary fixed designs and error distributions. We have confirmed this through extensive simulations. Compared to the cyclic permutation test (CPT) and residual permutation test (RPT), which also offer theoretical guarantees, PALMRT does not compromise as much on power or set stringent requirements on the sample size, making it suitable for diverse biomedical applications. We further illustrate the differences in a long-Covid study where PALMRT validated key findings previously identified using the t-test after multiple corrections, while both CPT and RPT suffered from a drastic loss of power and failed to identify any discoveries. We endorse PALMRT as a robust and practical hypothesis test in scientific research for its superior error control, power preservation, and simplicity. An R package for PALMRT is available at \url{//github.com/LeyingGuan/PairedRegression}.
Sparse attention as a efficient method can significantly decrease the computation cost, but current sparse attention tend to rely on window self attention which block the global information flow. For this problem, we present Shifted Cross Chunk Attention (SCCA), using different KV shifting strategy to extend respective field in each attention layer. Except, we combine Dilated Attention(DA) and Dilated Neighborhood Attention(DNA) to present Shifted Dilated Attention(SDA). Both SCCA and SDA can accumulate attention results in multi head attention to obtain approximate respective field in full attention. In this paper, we conduct language modeling experiments using different pattern of SCCA and combination of SCCA and SDA. The proposed shifted cross chunk attention (SCCA) can effectively extend large language models (LLMs) to longer context combined with Positional interpolation(PI) and LoRA than current sparse attention. Notably, SCCA adopts LLaMA2 7B from 4k context to 8k in single V100. This attention pattern can provide a Plug-and-play fine-tuning method to extend model context while retaining their original architectures, and is compatible with most existing techniques.
Background: The detection and extraction of causality from natural language sentences have shown great potential in various fields of application. The field of requirements engineering is eligible for multiple reasons: (1) requirements artifacts are primarily written in natural language, (2) causal sentences convey essential context about the subject of requirements, and (3) extracted and formalized causality relations are usable for a (semi-)automatic translation into further artifacts, such as test cases. Objective: We aim at understanding the value of interactive causality extraction based on syntactic criteria for the context of requirements engineering. Method: We developed a prototype of a system for automatic causality extraction and evaluate it by applying it to a set of publicly available requirements artifacts, determining whether the automatic extraction reduces the manual effort of requirements formalization. Result: During the evaluation we analyzed 4457 natural language sentences from 18 requirements documents, 558 of which were causal (12.52%). The best evaluation of a requirements document provided an automatic extraction of 48.57% cause-effect graphs on average, which demonstrates the feasibility of the approach. Limitation: The feasibility of the approach has been proven in theory but lacks exploration of being scaled up for practical use. Evaluating the applicability of the automatic causality extraction for a requirements engineer is left for future research. Conclusion: A syntactic approach for causality extraction is viable for the context of requirements engineering and can aid a pipeline towards an automatic generation of further artifacts from requirements artifacts.
We consider the problem of chance constrained optimization where it is sought to optimize a function and satisfy constraints, both of which are affected by uncertainties. The real world declinations of this problem are particularly challenging because of their inherent computational cost. To tackle such problems, we propose a new Bayesian optimization method. It applies to the situation where the uncertainty comes from some of the inputs, so that it becomes possible to define an acquisition criterion in the joint controlled-uncontrolled input space. The main contribution of this work is an acquisition criterion that accounts for both the average improvement in objective function and the constraint reliability. The criterion is derived following the Stepwise Uncertainty Reduction logic and its maximization provides both optimal controlled and uncontrolled parameters. Analytical expressions are given to efficiently calculate the criterion. Numerical studies on test functions are presented. It is found through experimental comparisons with alternative sampling criteria that the adequation between the sampling criterion and the problem contributes to the efficiency of the overall optimization. As a side result, an expression for the variance of the improvement is given.
Singularly perturbed boundary value problems pose a significant challenge for their numerical approximations because of the presence of sharp boundary layers. These sharp boundary layers are responsible for the stiffness of solutions, which leads to large computational errors, if not properly handled. It is well-known that the classical numerical methods as well as the Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) require some special treatments near the boundary, e.g., using extensive mesh refinements or finer collocation points, in order to obtain an accurate approximate solution especially inside of the stiff boundary layer. In this article, we modify the PINNs and construct our new semi-analytic SL-PINNs suitable for singularly perturbed boundary value problems. Performing the boundary layer analysis, we first find the corrector functions describing the singular behavior of the stiff solutions inside boundary layers. Then we obtain the SL-PINN approximations of the singularly perturbed problems by embedding the explicit correctors in the structure of PINNs or by training the correctors together with the PINN approximations. Our numerical experiments confirm that our new SL-PINN methods produce stable and accurate approximations for stiff solutions.
We adopt the integral definition of the fractional Laplace operator and study an optimal control problem on Lipschitz domains that involves a fractional elliptic partial differential equation (PDE) as state equation and a control variable that enters the state equation as a coefficient; pointwise constraints on the control variable are considered as well. We establish the existence of optimal solutions and analyze first and, necessary and sufficient, second order optimality conditions. Regularity estimates for optimal variables are also analyzed. We develop two finite element discretization strategies: a semidiscrete scheme in which the control variable is not discretized, and a fully discrete scheme in which the control variable is discretized with piecewise constant functions. For both schemes, we analyze the convergence properties of discretizations and derive error estimates.
There are various applications, where companies need to decide to which individuals they should best allocate treatment. To support such decisions, uplift models are applied to predict treatment effects on an individual level. Based on the predicted treatment effects, individuals can be ranked and treatment allocation can be prioritized according to this ranking. An implicit assumption, which has not been doubted in the previous uplift modeling literature, is that this treatment prioritization approach tends to bring individuals with high treatment effects to the top and individuals with low treatment effects to the bottom of the ranking. In our research, we show that heteroskedastictity in the training data can cause a bias of the uplift model ranking: individuals with the highest treatment effects can get accumulated in large numbers at the bottom of the ranking. We explain theoretically how heteroskedasticity can bias the ranking of uplift models and show this process in a simulation and on real-world data. We argue that this problem of ranking bias due to heteroskedasticity might occur in many real-world applications and requires modification of the treatment prioritization to achieve an efficient treatment allocation.
The integration of data and knowledge from several sources is known as data fusion. When data is only available in a distributed fashion or when different sensors are used to infer a quantity of interest, data fusion becomes essential. In Bayesian settings, a priori information of the unknown quantities is available and, possibly, present among the different distributed estimators. When the local estimates are fused, the prior knowledge used to construct several local posteriors might be overused unless the fusion node accounts for this and corrects it. In this paper, we analyze the effects of shared priors in Bayesian data fusion contexts. Depending on different common fusion rules, our analysis helps to understand the performance behavior as a function of the number of collaborative agents and as a consequence of different types of priors. The analysis is performed by using two divergences which are common in Bayesian inference, and the generality of the results allows to analyze very generic distributions. These theoretical results are corroborated through experiments in a variety of estimation and classification problems, including linear and nonlinear models, and federated learning schemes.
In this paper we explore the concept of sequential inductive prediction intervals using theory from sequential testing. We furthermore introduce a 3-parameter PAC definition of prediction intervals that allows us via simulation to achieve almost sharp bounds with high probability.
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