Motivated by pathwise stochastic calculus, we say that a continuous real-valued function $x$ admits the roughness exponent $R$ if the $p^{\text{th}}$ variation of $x$ converges to zero if $p>1/R$ and to infinity if $p<1/R$. For the sample paths of many stochastic processes, such as fractional Brownian motion, the roughness exponent exists and equals the standard Hurst parameter. In our main result, we provide a mild condition on the Faber--Schauder coefficients of $x$ under which the roughness exponent exists and is given as the limit of the classical Gladyshev estimates $\widehat R_n(x)$. This result can be viewed as a strong consistency result for the Gladyshev estimators in an entirely model-free setting, because no assumption whatsoever is made on the possible dynamics of the function $x$. Nonetheless, our proof is probabilistic and relies on a martingale that is hidden in the Faber--Schauder expansion of $x$. Since the Gladyshev estimators are not scale-invariant, we construct several scale-invariant estimators that are derived from the sequence $(\widehat R_n)_{n\in\mathbb N}$. We also discuss how a dynamic change in the roughness parameter of a time series can be detected. Finally, we extend our results to the case in which the $p^{\text{th}}$ variation of $x$ is defined over a sequence of unequally spaced partitions. Our results are illustrated by means of high-frequency financial time series.
相關內容
Preserving the topology from being inferred by external adversaries has become a paramount security issue for network systems (NSs), and adding random noises to the nodal states provides a promising way. Nevertheless, recent works have revealed that the topology cannot be preserved under i.i.d. noises in the asymptotic sense. How to effectively characterize the non-asymptotic preservation performance still remains an open issue. Inspired by the deviation quantification of concentration inequalities, this paper proposes a novel metric named trace-based variance-expectation ratio. This metric effectively captures the decaying rate of the topology inference error, where a slower rate indicates better non-asymptotic preservation performance. We prove that the inference error will always decay to zero asymptotically, as long as the added noises are non-increasing and independent (milder than the i.i.d. condition). Then, the optimal noise design that produces the slowest decaying rate for the error is obtained. More importantly, we amend the noise design by introducing one-lag time dependence, achieving the zero state deviation and the non-zero topology inference error in the asymptotic sense simultaneously. Extensions to a general class of noises with multi-lag time dependence are provided. Comprehensive simulations verify the theoretical findings.
Joint multimodal functional data acquisition, where functional data from multiple modes are measured simultaneously from the same subject, has emerged as an exciting modern approach enabled by recent engineering breakthroughs in the neurological and biological sciences. One prominent motivation to acquire such data is to enable new discoveries of the underlying connectivity by combining multimodal signals. Despite the scientific interest, there remains a gap in principled statistical methods for estimating the graph underlying multimodal functional data. To this end, we propose a new integrative framework that models the data generation process and identifies operators mapping from the observation space to the latent space. We then develop an estimator that simultaneously estimates the transformation operators and the latent graph. This estimator is based on the partial correlation operator, which we rigorously extend from the multivariate to the functional setting. Our procedure is provably efficient, with the estimator converging to a stationary point with quantifiable statistical error. Furthermore, we show recovery of the latent graph under mild conditions. Our work is applied to analyze simultaneously acquired multimodal brain imaging data where the graph indicates functional connectivity of the brain. We present simulation and empirical results that support the benefits of joint estimation.
This note addresses the question of optimally estimating a linear functional of an object acquired through linear observations corrupted by random noise, where optimality pertains to a worst-case setting tied to a symmetric, convex, and closed model set containing the object. It complements the article "Statistical Estimation and Optimal Recovery" published in the Annals of Statistics in 1994. There, Donoho showed (among other things) that, for Gaussian noise, linear maps provide near-optimal estimation schemes relatively to a performance measure relevant in Statistical Estimation. Here, we advocate for a different performance measure arguably more relevant in Optimal Recovery. We show that, relatively to this new measure, linear maps still provide near-optimal estimation schemes even if the noise is merely log-concave. Our arguments, which make a connection to the deterministic noise situation and bypass properties specific to the Gaussian case, offer an alternative to parts of Donoho's proof.
A robust and sparse Direction of Arrival (DOA) estimator is derived for array data that follows a Complex Elliptically Symmetric (CES) distribution with zero-mean and finite second-order moments. The derivation allows to choose the loss function and four loss functions are discussed in detail: the Gauss loss which is the Maximum-Likelihood (ML) loss for the circularly symmetric complex Gaussian distribution, the ML-loss for the complex multivariate $t$-distribution (MVT) with $\nu$ degrees of freedom, as well as Huber and Tyler loss functions. For Gauss loss, the method reduces to Sparse Bayesian Learning (SBL). The root mean square DOA error of the derived estimators is discussed for Gaussian, MVT, and $\epsilon$-contaminated data. The robust SBL estimators perform well for all cases and nearly identical with classical SBL for Gaussian noise.
We study a class of nonlinear nonlocal conservation laws with discontinuous flux, modeling crowd dynamics and traffic flow, without any additional conditions on finiteness/discreteness of the set of discontinuities or on the monotonicity of the kernel/the discontinuous coefficient. Strong compactness of the Godunov and Lax-Friedrichs type approximations is proved, providing the existence of entropy solutions. A proof of the uniqueness of the adapted entropy solutions is provided, establishing the convergence of the entire sequence of finite volume approximations to the adapted entropy solution. As per the current literature, this is the first well-posedness result for the aforesaid class and connects the theory of nonlocal conservation laws (with discontinuous flux), with its local counterpart in a generic setup. Some numerical examples are presented to display the performance of the schemes and explore the limiting behavior of these nonlocal conservation laws to their local counterparts.
It has long been believed that the brain is highly modular both in terms of structure and function, although recent evidence has led some to question the extent of both types of modularity. We used artificial neural networks to test the hypothesis that structural modularity is sufficient to guarantee functional specialization, and find that in general, this doesn't necessarily hold except at extreme levels. We then systematically tested which features of the environment and network do lead to the emergence of specialization. We used a simple toy environment, task and network, allowing us precise control, and show that in this setup, several distinct measures of specialization give qualitatively similar results. We further find that (1) specialization can only emerge in environments where features of that environment are meaningfully separable, (2) specialization preferentially emerges when the network is strongly resource-constrained, and (3) these findings are qualitatively similar across different network architectures, but the quantitative relationships depends on the architecture type. Finally, we show that functional specialization varies dynamically across time, and demonstrate that these dynamics depend on both the timing and bandwidth of information flow in the network. We conclude that a static notion of specialization, based on structural modularity, is likely too simple a framework for understanding intelligent systems in situations of real-world complexity. We propose that thoroughly stress testing candidate definitions of functional modularity in simplified scenarios before extending to more complex data, network models and electrophysiological recordings is likely to be a fruitful approach.
Neural point estimators are neural networks that map data to parameter point estimates. They are fast, likelihood free and, due to their amortised nature, amenable to fast bootstrap-based uncertainty quantification. In this paper, we aim to increase the awareness of statisticians to this relatively new inferential tool, and to facilitate its adoption by providing user-friendly open-source software. We also give attention to the ubiquitous problem of making inference from replicated data, which we address in the neural setting using permutation-invariant neural networks. Through extensive simulation studies we show that these neural point estimators can quickly and optimally (in a Bayes sense) estimate parameters in weakly-identified and highly-parameterised models with relative ease. We demonstrate their applicability through an analysis of extreme sea-surface temperature in the Red Sea where, after training, we obtain parameter estimates and bootstrap-based confidence intervals from hundreds of spatial fields in a fraction of a second.
The Weighted Path Order of Yamada is a powerful technique for proving termination. It is also supported by CeTA, a certifier for checking untrusted termination proofs. To be more precise, CeTA contains a verified function that computes for two terms whether one of them is larger than the other for a given WPO, i.e., where all parameters of the WPO have been fixed. The problem of this verified function is its exponential runtime in the worst case. Therefore, in this work we develop a polynomial time implementation of WPO that is based on memoization. It also improves upon an earlier verified implementation of the Recursive Path Order: the RPO-implementation uses full terms as keys for the memory, a design which simplified the soundness proofs, but has some runtime overhead. In this work, keys are just numbers, so that the lookup in the memory is faster. Although trivial on paper, this change introduces some challenges for the verification task.
Spiking neural networks (SNNs) are brain-inspired energy-efficient models that encode information in spatiotemporal dynamics. Recently, deep SNNs trained directly have shown great success in achieving high performance on classification tasks with very few time steps. However, how to design a directly-trained SNN for the regression task of object detection still remains a challenging problem. To address this problem, we propose EMS-YOLO, a novel directly-trained SNN framework for object detection, which is the first trial to train a deep SNN with surrogate gradients for object detection rather than ANN-SNN conversion strategies. Specifically, we design a full-spike residual block, EMS-ResNet, which can effectively extend the depth of the directly-trained SNN with low power consumption. Furthermore, we theoretically analyze and prove the EMS-ResNet could avoid gradient vanishing or exploding. The results demonstrate that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art ANN-SNN conversion methods (at least 500 time steps) in extremely fewer time steps (only 4 time steps). It is shown that our model could achieve comparable performance to the ANN with the same architecture while consuming 5.83 times less energy on the frame-based COCO Dataset and the event-based Gen1 Dataset.
Data augmentation is a powerful technique to improve performance in applications such as image and text classification tasks. Yet, there is little rigorous understanding of why and how various augmentations work. In this work, we consider a family of linear transformations and study their effects on the ridge estimator in an over-parametrized linear regression setting. First, we show that transformations that preserve the labels of the data can improve estimation by enlarging the span of the training data. Second, we show that transformations that mix data can improve estimation by playing a regularization effect. Finally, we validate our theoretical insights on MNIST. Based on the insights, we propose an augmentation scheme that searches over the space of transformations by how uncertain the model is about the transformed data. We validate our proposed scheme on image and text datasets. For example, our method outperforms random sampling methods by 1.24% on CIFAR-100 using Wide-ResNet-28-10. Furthermore, we achieve comparable accuracy to the SoTA Adversarial AutoAugment on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, SVHN, and ImageNet datasets.
小貼士
登錄享
相關主題
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191