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Measurement error occurs when a set of covariates influencing a response variable are corrupted by noise. This can lead to misleading inference outcomes, particularly in problems where accurately estimating the relationship between covariates and response variables is crucial, such as causal effect estimation. Existing methods for dealing with measurement error often rely on strong assumptions such as knowledge of the error distribution or its variance and availability of replicated measurements of the covariates. We propose a Bayesian Nonparametric Learning framework which is robust to mismeasured covariates, does not require the preceding assumptions, and is able to incorporate prior beliefs about the true error distribution. Our approach gives rise to two methods that are robust to measurement error via different loss functions: one based on the Total Least Squares objective and the other based on Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD). The latter allows for generalisation to non-Gaussian distributed errors and non-linear covariate-response relationships. We provide bounds on the generalisation error using the MMD-loss and showcase the effectiveness of the proposed framework versus prior art in real-world mental health and dietary datasets that contain significant measurement errors.

In this paper, we propose semiparametric efficient estimators of genetic relatedness between two traits in a model-free framework. Most existing methods require specifying certain parametric models involving the traits and genetic variants. However, the bias due to model misspecification may yield misleading statistical results. Moreover, the semiparametric efficient bounds for estimators of genetic relatedness are still lacking. In this paper, we develop semiparametric efficient estimators with machine learning methods and construct valid confidence intervals for two important measures of genetic relatedness: genetic covariance and genetic correlation, allowing both continuous and discrete responses. Based on the derived efficient influence functions of genetic relatedness, we propose a consistent estimator of the genetic covariance as long as one of genetic values is consistently estimated. The data of two traits may be collected from the same group or different groups of individuals. Various numerical studies are performed to illustrate our introduced procedures. We also apply proposed procedures to analyze Carworth Farms White mice genome-wide association study data.

Financial forecasting has been an important and active area of machine learning research, as even the most modest advantage in predictive accuracy can be parlayed into significant financial gains. Recent advances in natural language processing (NLP) bring the opportunity to leverage textual data, such as earnings reports of publicly traded companies, to predict the return rate for an asset. However, when dealing with such a sensitive task, the consistency of models -- their invariance under meaning-preserving alternations in input -- is a crucial property for building user trust. Despite this, current financial forecasting methods do not consider consistency. To address this problem, we propose FinTrust, an evaluation tool that assesses logical consistency in financial text. Using FinTrust, we show that the consistency of state-of-the-art NLP models for financial forecasting is poor. Our analysis of the performance degradation caused by meaning-preserving alternations suggests that current text-based methods are not suitable for robustly predicting market information. All resources are available at //github.com/yingpengma/fintrust.

In this paper, we will outline a novel data-driven method for estimating functions in a multivariate nonparametric regression model based on an adaptive knot selection for B-splines. The underlying idea of our approach for selecting knots is to apply the generalized lasso, since the knots of the B-spline basis can be seen as changes in the derivatives of the function to be estimated. This method was then extended to functions depending on several variables by processing each dimension independently, thus reducing the problem to a univariate setting. The regularization parameters were chosen by means of a criterion based on EBIC. The nonparametric estimator was obtained using a multivariate B-spline regression with the corresponding selected knots. Our procedure was validated through numerical experiments by varying the number of observations and the level of noise to investigate its robustness. The influence of observation sampling was also assessed and our method was applied to a chemical system commonly used in geoscience. For each different framework considered in this paper, our approach performed better than state-of-the-art methods. Our completely data-driven method is implemented in the glober R package which will soon be available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN).

Estimating truncated density models is difficult, as these models have intractable normalising constants and hard to satisfy boundary conditions. Score matching can be adapted to solve the truncated density estimation problem, but requires a continuous weighting function which takes zero at the boundary and is positive elsewhere. Evaluation of such a weighting function (and its gradient) often requires a closed-form expression of the truncation boundary and finding a solution to a complicated optimisation problem. In this paper, we propose approximate Stein classes, which in turn leads to a relaxed Stein identity for truncated density estimation. We develop a novel discrepancy measure, truncated kernelised Stein discrepancy (TKSD), which does not require fixing a weighting function in advance, and can be evaluated using only samples on the boundary. We estimate a truncated density model by minimising the Lagrangian dual of TKSD. Finally, experiments show the accuracy of our method to be an improvement over previous works even without the explicit functional form of the boundary.

Models with random effects, such as generalised linear mixed models (GLMMs), are often used for analysing clustered data. Parameter inference with these models is difficult because of the presence of cluster-specific random effects, which must be integrated out when evaluating the likelihood function. Here, we propose a sequential variational Bayes algorithm, called Recursive Variational Gaussian Approximation for Latent variable models (R-VGAL), for estimating parameters in GLMMs. The R-VGAL algorithm operates on the data sequentially, requires only a single pass through the data, and can provide parameter updates as new data are collected without the need of re-processing the previous data. At each update, the R-VGAL algorithm requires the gradient and Hessian of a "partial" log-likelihood function evaluated at the new observation, which are generally not available in closed form for GLMMs. To circumvent this issue, we propose using an importance-sampling-based approach for estimating the gradient and Hessian via Fisher's and Louis' identities. We find that R-VGAL can be unstable when traversing the first few data points, but that this issue can be mitigated by using a variant of variational tempering in the initial steps of the algorithm. Through illustrations on both simulated and real datasets, we show that R-VGAL provides good approximations to the exact posterior distributions, that it can be made robust through tempering, and that it is computationally efficient.

Differential privacy (DP) data synthesizers support public release of sensitive information, offering theoretical guarantees for privacy but limited evidence of utility in practical settings. Utility is typically measured as the error on representative proxy tasks, such as descriptive statistics, accuracy of trained classifiers, or performance over a query workload. The ability for these results to generalize to practitioners' experience has been questioned in a number of settings, including the U.S. Census. In this paper, we propose an evaluation methodology for synthetic data that avoids assumptions about the representativeness of proxy tasks, instead measuring the likelihood that published conclusions would change had the authors used synthetic data, a condition we call epistemic parity. Our methodology consists of reproducing empirical conclusions of peer-reviewed papers on real, publicly available data, then re-running these experiments a second time on DP synthetic data, and comparing the results. We instantiate our methodology over a benchmark of recent peer-reviewed papers that analyze public datasets in the ICPSR repository. We model quantitative claims computationally to automate the experimental workflow, and model qualitative claims by reproducing visualizations and comparing the results manually. We then generate DP synthetic datasets using multiple state-of-the-art mechanisms, and estimate the likelihood that these conclusions will hold. We find that state-of-the-art DP synthesizers are able to achieve high epistemic parity for several papers in our benchmark. However, some papers, and particularly some specific findings, are difficult to reproduce for any of the synthesizers. We advocate for a new class of mechanisms that favor stronger utility guarantees and offer privacy protection with a focus on application-specific threat models and risk-assessment.

Face recognition systems have significantly advanced in recent years, driven by the availability of large-scale datasets. However, several issues have recently came up, including privacy concerns that have led to the discontinuation of well-established public datasets. Synthetic datasets have emerged as a solution, even though current synthesis methods present other drawbacks such as limited intra-class variations, lack of realism, and unfair representation of demographic groups. This study introduces GANDiffFace, a novel framework for the generation of synthetic datasets for face recognition that combines the power of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) and Diffusion models to overcome the limitations of existing synthetic datasets. In GANDiffFace, we first propose the use of GANs to synthesize highly realistic identities and meet target demographic distributions. Subsequently, we fine-tune Diffusion models with the images generated with GANs, synthesizing multiple images of the same identity with a variety of accessories, poses, expressions, and contexts. We generate multiple synthetic datasets by changing GANDiffFace settings, and compare their mated and non-mated score distributions with the distributions provided by popular real-world datasets for face recognition, i.e. VGG2 and IJB-C. Our results show the feasibility of the proposed GANDiffFace, in particular the use of Diffusion models to enhance the (limited) intra-class variations provided by GANs towards the level of real-world datasets.

Stance detection determines whether the author of a piece of text is in favor of, against, or neutral towards a specified target, and can be used to gain valuable insights into social media. The ubiquitous indirect referral of targets makes this task challenging, as it requires computational solutions to model semantic features and infer the corresponding implications from a literal statement. Moreover, the limited amount of available training data leads to subpar performance in out-of-domain and cross-target scenarios, as data-driven approaches are prone to rely on superficial and domain-specific features. In this work, we decompose the stance detection task from a linguistic perspective, and investigate key components and inference paths in this task. The stance triangle is a generic linguistic framework previously proposed to describe the fundamental ways people express their stance. We further expand it by characterizing the relationship between explicit and implicit objects. We then use the framework to extend one single training corpus with additional annotation. Experimental results show that strategically-enriched data can significantly improve the performance on out-of-domain and cross-target evaluation.

With the rapid advancements in technology for data collection, the application of the spatial autoregressive (SAR) model has become increasingly prevalent in real-world analysis, particularly when dealing with large datasets. However, the commonly used quasi-maximum likelihood estimation (QMLE) for the SAR model is not computationally scalable to handle the data with a large size. In addition, when establishing the asymptotic properties of the parameter estimators of the SAR model, both weights matrix and regressors are assumed to be nonstochastic in classical spatial econometrics, which is perhaps not realistic in real applications. Motivated by the machine learning literature, this paper proposes quasi-score matching estimation for the SAR model. This new estimation approach is still likelihood-based, but significantly reduces the computational complexity of the QMLE. The asymptotic properties of parameter estimators under the random weights matrix and regressors are established, which provides a new theoretical framework for the asymptotic inference of the SAR-type models. The usefulness of the quasi-score matching estimation and its asymptotic inference is illustrated via extensive simulation studies and a case study of an anti-conflict social network experiment for middle school students.