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The mass aggregation of knowledge embedded in large language models (LLMs) holds the promise of new solutions to problems of observability and measurement in the social sciences. We examine the utility of one such model for a particularly difficult measurement task: measuring the latent ideology of lawmakers, which allows us to better understand functions that are core to democracy, such as how politics shape policy and how political actors represent their constituents. We scale the senators of the 116th United States Congress along the liberal-conservative spectrum by prompting ChatGPT to select the more liberal (or conservative) senator in pairwise comparisons. We show that the LLM produced stable answers across repeated iterations, did not hallucinate, and was not simply regurgitating information from a single source. This new scale strongly correlates with pre-existing liberal-conservative scales such as NOMINATE, but also differs in several important ways, such as correctly placing senators who vote against their party for far-left or far-right ideological reasons on the extreme ends. The scale also highly correlates with ideological measures based on campaign giving and political activists' perceptions of these senators. In addition to the potential for better-automated data collection and information retrieval, our results suggest LLMs are likely to open new avenues for measuring latent constructs like ideology that rely on aggregating large quantities of data from public sources.

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Real-world data, such as administrative claims and electronic health records, are increasingly used for safety monitoring and to help guide regulatory decision-making. In these settings, it is important to document analytic decisions transparently and objectively to ensure that analyses meet their intended goals. The Causal Roadmap is an established framework that can guide and document analytic decisions through each step of the analytic pipeline, which will help investigators generate high-quality real-world evidence. In this paper, we illustrate the utility of the Causal Roadmap using two case studies previously led by workgroups sponsored by the Sentinel Initiative -- a program for actively monitoring the safety of regulated medical products. Each case example focuses on different aspects of the analytic pipeline for drug safety monitoring. The first case study shows how the Causal Roadmap encourages transparency, reproducibility, and objective decision-making for causal analyses. The second case study highlights how this framework can guide analytic decisions beyond inference on causal parameters, improving outcome ascertainment in clinical phenotyping. These examples provide a structured framework for implementing the Causal Roadmap in safety surveillance and guide transparent, reproducible, and objective analysis.

Deep learning models, including modern systems like large language models, are well known to offer unreliable estimates of the uncertainty of their decisions. In order to improve the quality of the confidence levels, also known as calibration, of a model, common approaches entail the addition of either data-dependent or data-independent regularization terms to the training loss. Data-dependent regularizers have been recently introduced in the context of conventional frequentist learning to penalize deviations between confidence and accuracy. In contrast, data-independent regularizers are at the core of Bayesian learning, enforcing adherence of the variational distribution in the model parameter space to a prior density. The former approach is unable to quantify epistemic uncertainty, while the latter is severely affected by model misspecification. In light of the limitations of both methods, this paper proposes an integrated framework, referred to as calibration-aware Bayesian neural networks (CA-BNNs), that applies both regularizers while optimizing over a variational distribution as in Bayesian learning. Numerical results validate the advantages of the proposed approach in terms of expected calibration error (ECE) and reliability diagrams.

Information retrieval (IR) plays a crucial role in locating relevant resources from vast amounts of data, and its applications have evolved from traditional knowledge bases to modern search engines (SEs). The emergence of large language models (LLMs) has further revolutionized the field by enabling users to interact with search systems in natural language. In this paper, we explore the advantages and disadvantages of LLMs and SEs, highlighting their respective strengths in understanding user-issued queries and retrieving up-to-date information. To leverage the benefits of both paradigms while circumventing their limitations, we propose InteR, a novel framework that facilitates knowledge refinement through interaction between SEs and LLMs. InteR allows SEs to refine knowledge in query using LLM-generated summaries and enables LLMs to enhance prompts using SE-retrieved documents. This iterative refinement process augments the inputs of SEs and LLMs, leading to more accurate retrieval. Experimental evaluations on two large-scale retrieval benchmarks demonstrate that InteR achieves superior zero-shot document retrieval performance compared to state-of-the-art methods, regardless of the use of relevance judgement.

Users online tend to join polarized groups of like-minded peers around shared narratives, forming echo chambers. The echo chamber effect and opinion polarization may be driven by several factors including human biases in information consumption and personalized recommendations produced by feed algorithms. Until now, studies have mainly used opinion dynamic models to explore the mechanisms behind the emergence of polarization and echo chambers. The objective was to determine the key factors contributing to these phenomena and identify their interplay. However, the validation of model predictions with empirical data still displays two main drawbacks: lack of systematicity and qualitative analysis. In our work, we bridge this gap by providing a method to numerically compare the opinion distributions obtained from simulations with those measured on social media. To validate this procedure, we develop an opinion dynamic model that takes into account the interplay between human and algorithmic factors. We subject our model to empirical testing with data from diverse social media platforms and benchmark it against two state-of-the-art models. To further enhance our understanding of social media platforms, we provide a synthetic description of their characteristics in terms of the model's parameter space. This representation has the potential to facilitate the refinement of feed algorithms, thus mitigating the detrimental effects of extreme polarization on online discourse.

In the past decades, recommender systems have attracted much attention in both research and industry communities, and a large number of studies have been devoted to developing effective recommendation models. Basically speaking, these models mainly learn the underlying user preference from historical behavior data, and then estimate the user-item matching relationships for recommendations. Inspired by the recent progress on large language models (LLMs), we take a different approach to developing the recommendation models, considering recommendation as instruction following by LLMs. The key idea is that the preferences or needs of a user can be expressed in natural language descriptions (called instructions), so that LLMs can understand and further execute the instruction for fulfilling the recommendation task. Instead of using public APIs of LLMs, we instruction tune an open-source LLM (3B Flan-T5-XL), in order to better adapt LLMs to recommender systems. For this purpose, we first design a general instruction format for describing the preference, intention, task form and context of a user in natural language. Then we manually design 39 instruction templates and automatically generate a large amount of user-personalized instruction data (252K instructions) with varying types of preferences and intentions. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, we instantiate the instruction templates into several widely-studied recommendation (or search) tasks, and conduct extensive experiments on these tasks with real-world datasets. Experiment results show that the proposed approach can outperform several competitive baselines, including the powerful GPT-3.5, on these evaluation tasks. Our approach sheds light on developing more user-friendly recommender systems, in which users can freely communicate with the system and obtain more accurate recommendations via natural language instructions.

This paper presents a comprehensive survey of ChatGPT and GPT-4, state-of-the-art large language models (LLM) from the GPT series, and their prospective applications across diverse domains. Indeed, key innovations such as large-scale pre-training that captures knowledge across the entire world wide web, instruction fine-tuning and Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) have played significant roles in enhancing LLMs' adaptability and performance. We performed an in-depth analysis of 194 relevant papers on arXiv, encompassing trend analysis, word cloud representation, and distribution analysis across various application domains. The findings reveal a significant and increasing interest in ChatGPT/GPT-4 research, predominantly centered on direct natural language processing applications, while also demonstrating considerable potential in areas ranging from education and history to mathematics, medicine, and physics. This study endeavors to furnish insights into ChatGPT's capabilities, potential implications, ethical concerns, and offer direction for future advancements in this field.

Technology for open-ended language generation, a key application of artificial intelligence, has advanced to a great extent in recent years. Large-scale language models, which are trained on large corpora of text, are being used in a wide range of applications everywhere, from virtual assistants to conversational bots. While these language models output fluent text, existing research shows that these models can and do capture human biases. Many of these biases, especially those that could potentially cause harm, are being well-investigated. On the other hand, studies that infer and change human personality traits inherited by these models have been scarce or non-existent. Our work seeks to address this gap by exploring the personality traits of several large-scale language models designed for open-ended text generation and the datasets used for training them. We build on the popular Big Five factors and develop robust methods that quantify the personality traits of these models and their underlying datasets. In particular, we trigger the models with a questionnaire designed for personality assessment and subsequently classify the text responses into quantifiable traits using a Zero-shot classifier. Our estimation scheme sheds light on an important anthropomorphic element found in such AI models and can help stakeholders decide how they should be applied as well as how society could perceive them. Additionally, we examined approaches to alter these personalities, adding to our understanding of how AI models can be adapted to specific contexts.

This paper surveys and organizes research works in a new paradigm in natural language processing, which we dub "prompt-based learning". Unlike traditional supervised learning, which trains a model to take in an input x and predict an output y as P(y|x), prompt-based learning is based on language models that model the probability of text directly. To use these models to perform prediction tasks, the original input x is modified using a template into a textual string prompt x' that has some unfilled slots, and then the language model is used to probabilistically fill the unfilled information to obtain a final string x, from which the final output y can be derived. This framework is powerful and attractive for a number of reasons: it allows the language model to be pre-trained on massive amounts of raw text, and by defining a new prompting function the model is able to perform few-shot or even zero-shot learning, adapting to new scenarios with few or no labeled data. In this paper we introduce the basics of this promising paradigm, describe a unified set of mathematical notations that can cover a wide variety of existing work, and organize existing work along several dimensions, e.g.the choice of pre-trained models, prompts, and tuning strategies. To make the field more accessible to interested beginners, we not only make a systematic review of existing works and a highly structured typology of prompt-based concepts, but also release other resources, e.g., a website //pretrain.nlpedia.ai/ including constantly-updated survey, and paperlist.

Clustering is one of the most fundamental and wide-spread techniques in exploratory data analysis. Yet, the basic approach to clustering has not really changed: a practitioner hand-picks a task-specific clustering loss to optimize and fit the given data to reveal the underlying cluster structure. Some types of losses---such as k-means, or its non-linear version: kernelized k-means (centroid based), and DBSCAN (density based)---are popular choices due to their good empirical performance on a range of applications. Although every so often the clustering output using these standard losses fails to reveal the underlying structure, and the practitioner has to custom-design their own variation. In this work we take an intrinsically different approach to clustering: rather than fitting a dataset to a specific clustering loss, we train a recurrent model that learns how to cluster. The model uses as training pairs examples of datasets (as input) and its corresponding cluster identities (as output). By providing multiple types of training datasets as inputs, our model has the ability to generalize well on unseen datasets (new clustering tasks). Our experiments reveal that by training on simple synthetically generated datasets or on existing real datasets, we can achieve better clustering performance on unseen real-world datasets when compared with standard benchmark clustering techniques. Our meta clustering model works well even for small datasets where the usual deep learning models tend to perform worse.

Many tasks in natural language processing can be viewed as multi-label classification problems. However, most of the existing models are trained with the standard cross-entropy loss function and use a fixed prediction policy (e.g., a threshold of 0.5) for all the labels, which completely ignores the complexity and dependencies among different labels. In this paper, we propose a meta-learning method to capture these complex label dependencies. More specifically, our method utilizes a meta-learner to jointly learn the training policies and prediction policies for different labels. The training policies are then used to train the classifier with the cross-entropy loss function, and the prediction policies are further implemented for prediction. Experimental results on fine-grained entity typing and text classification demonstrate that our proposed method can obtain more accurate multi-label classification results.

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