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We propose a numerically efficient method for evaluating the random-coding union bound with parameter $s$ on the error probability achievable in the finite-blocklength regime by a pilot-assisted transmission scheme employing Gaussian codebooks and operating over a memoryless block-fading channel. Our method relies on the saddlepoint approximation, which, differently from previous results reported for similar scenarios, is performed with respect to the number of fading blocks (a.k.a. diversity branches) spanned by each codeword, instead of the number of channel uses per block. This different approach avoids a costly numerical averaging of the error probability over the realizations of the fading process and of its pilot-based estimate at the receiver and results in a significant reduction of the number of channel realizations required to estimate the error probability accurately. Our numerical experiments for both single-antenna communication links and massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) networks show that, when two or more diversity branches are available, the error probability can be estimated accurately with the saddlepoint approximation with respect to the number of fading blocks using a numerical method that requires about two orders of magnitude fewer Monte-Carlo samples than with the saddlepoint approximation with respect to the number of channel uses per block.

In the context of finite sums minimization, variance reduction techniques are widely used to improve the performance of state-of-the-art stochastic gradient methods. Their practical impact is clear, as well as their theoretical properties. Stochastic proximal point algorithms have been studied as an alternative to stochastic gradient algorithms since they are more stable with respect to the choice of the stepsize but a proper variance reduced version is missing. In this work, we propose the first study of variance reduction techniques for stochastic proximal point algorithms. We introduce a stochastic proximal version of SVRG, SAGA, and some of their variants for smooth and convex functions. We provide several convergence results for the iterates and the objective function values. In addition, under the Polyak-{\L}ojasiewicz (PL) condition, we obtain linear convergence rates for the iterates and the function values. Our numerical experiments demonstrate the advantages of the proximal variance reduction methods over their gradient counterparts, especially about the stability with respect to the choice of the step size.

We consider two classes of natural stochastic processes on finite unlabeled graphs. These are Euclidean stochastic optimization algorithms on the adjacency matrix of weighted graphs and a modified version of the Metropolis MCMC algorithm on stochastic block models over unweighted graphs. In both cases we show that, as the size of the graph goes to infinity, the random trajectories of the stochastic processes converge to deterministic limits. These deterministic limits are curves on the space of measure-valued graphons. Measure-valued graphons, introduced by Lov\'{a}sz and Szegedy, are a refinement of the concept of graphons that can distinguish between two infinite exchangeable arrays that give rise to the same graphon limit. We introduce new metrics on this space which provide us with a natural notion of convergence for our limit theorems. This notion is equivalent to the convergence of infinite-exchangeable arrays. Under a suitable time-scaling, the Metropolis chain admits a diffusion limit as the number of vertices go to infinity. We then demonstrate that, in an appropriately formulated zero-noise limit, the stochastic process of adjacency matrices of this diffusion converge to a deterministic gradient flow curve on the space of graphons introduced in arXiv:2111.09459 [math.PR]. Under suitable assumptions, this allows us to estimate an exponential convergence rate for the Metropolis chain in a certain limiting regime. To the best of our knowledge, both the actual rate and the connection between a natural Metropolis chain commonly used in exponential random graph models and gradient flows on graphons are new in the literature.

This paper develops power series expansions of a general class of moment functions, including transition densities and option prices, of continuous-time Markov processes, including jump--diffusions. The proposed expansions extend the ones in Kristensen and Mele (2011) to cover general Markov processes. We demonstrate that the class of expansions nests the transition density and option price expansions developed in Yang, Chen, and Wan (2019) and Wan and Yang (2021) as special cases, thereby connecting seemingly different ideas in a unified framework. We show how the general expansion can be implemented for fully general jump--diffusion models. We provide a new theory for the validity of the expansions which shows that series expansions are not guaranteed to converge as more terms are added in general. Thus, these methods should be used with caution. At the same time, the numerical studies in this paper demonstrate good performance of the proposed implementation in practice when a small number of terms are included.

Dysarthria is a motor speech disorder often characterized by reduced speech intelligibility through slow, uncoordinated control of speech production muscles. Automatic Speech recognition (ASR) systems can help dysarthric talkers communicate more effectively. However, robust dysarthria-specific ASR requires a significant amount of training speech, which is not readily available for dysarthric talkers. This paper presents a new dysarthric speech synthesis method for the purpose of ASR training data augmentation. Differences in prosodic and acoustic characteristics of dysarthric spontaneous speech at varying severity levels are important components for dysarthric speech modeling, synthesis, and augmentation. For dysarthric speech synthesis, a modified neural multi-talker TTS is implemented by adding a dysarthria severity level coefficient and a pause insertion model to synthesize dysarthric speech for varying severity levels. To evaluate the effectiveness for synthesis of training data for ASR, dysarthria-specific speech recognition was used. Results show that a DNN-HMM model trained on additional synthetic dysarthric speech achieves WER improvement of 12.2% compared to the baseline, and that the addition of the severity level and pause insertion controls decrease WER by 6.5%, showing the effectiveness of adding these parameters. Overall results on the TORGO database demonstrate that using dysarthric synthetic speech to increase the amount of dysarthric-patterned speech for training has significant impact on the dysarthric ASR systems. In addition, we have conducted a subjective evaluation to evaluate the dysarthric-ness and similarity of synthesized speech. Our subjective evaluation shows that the perceived dysartrhic-ness of synthesized speech is similar to that of true dysarthric speech, especially for higher levels of dysarthria

Local modifications of a computational domain are often performed in order to simplify the meshing process and to reduce computational costs and memory requirements. However, removing geometrical features of a domain often introduces a non-negligible error in the solution of a differential problem in which it is defined. In this work, we extend the results from [1] by studying the case of domains containing an arbitrary number of distinct Neumann features, and by performing an analysis on Poisson's, linear elasticity, and Stokes' equations. We introduce a simple, computationally cheap, reliable, and efficient a posteriori estimator of the geometrical defeaturing error. Moreover, we also introduce a geometric refinement strategy that accounts for the defeaturing error: Starting from a fully defeatured geometry, the algorithm determines at each iteration step which features need to be added to the geometrical model to reduce the defeaturing error. These important features are then added to the (partially) defeatured geometrical model at the next iteration, until the solution attains a prescribed accuracy. A wide range of two- and three-dimensional numerical experiments are finally reported to illustrate this work.

We consider the fundamental task of optimizing a real-valued function defined in a potentially high-dimensional Euclidean space, such as the loss function in many machine-learning tasks or the logarithm of the probability distribution in statistical inference. We use the warped Riemannian geometry notions to redefine the optimisation problem of a function on Euclidean space to a Riemannian manifold with a warped metric, and then find the function's optimum along this manifold. The warped metric chosen for the search domain induces a computational friendly metric-tensor for which optimal search directions associate with geodesic curves on the manifold becomes easier to compute. Performing optimization along geodesics is known to be generally infeasible, yet we show that in this specific manifold we can analytically derive Taylor approximations up to third-order. In general these approximations to the geodesic curve will not lie on the manifold, however we construct suitable retraction maps to pull them back onto the manifold. Therefore, we can efficiently optimize along the approximate geodesic curves. We cover the related theory, describe a practical optimization algorithm and empirically evaluate it on a collection of challenging optimisation benchmarks. Our proposed algorithm, using third-order approximation of geodesics, outperforms standard Euclidean gradient-based counterparts in term of number of iterations until convergence and an alternative method for Hessian-based optimisation routines.

We propose a generalization of nonlinear stability of numerical one-step integrators to Riemannian manifolds in the spirit of Butcher's notion of B-stability. Taking inspiration from Simpson-Porco and Bullo, we introduce non-expansive systems on such manifolds and define B-stability of integrators. In this first exposition, we provide concrete results for a geodesic version of the Implicit Euler (GIE) scheme. We prove that the GIE method is B-stable on Riemannian manifolds with non-positive sectional curvature. We show through numerical examples that the GIE method is expansive when applied to a certain non-expansive vector field on the 2-sphere, and that the GIE method does not necessarily possess a unique solution for large enough step sizes. Finally, we derive a new improved global error estimate for general Lie group integrators.

Uniform error estimates of a bi-fidelity method for a kinetic-fluid coupled model with random initial inputs in the fine particle regime are proved in this paper. Such a model is a system coupling the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations to the Vlasov-Fokker-Planck equations for a mixture of the flows with distinct particle sizes. The main analytic tool is the hypocoercivity analysis for the multi-phase Navier-Stokes-Vlasov-Fokker-Planck system with uncertainties, considering solutions in a perturbative setting near the global equilibrium. This allows us to obtain the error estimates in both kinetic and hydrodynamic regimes.

Confidence intervals based on the central limit theorem (CLT) are a cornerstone of classical statistics. Despite being only asymptotically valid, they are ubiquitous because they permit statistical inference under very weak assumptions, and can often be applied to problems even when nonasymptotic inference is impossible. This paper introduces time-uniform analogues of such asymptotic confidence intervals. To elaborate, our methods take the form of confidence sequences (CS) -- sequences of confidence intervals that are uniformly valid over time. CSs provide valid inference at arbitrary stopping times, incurring no penalties for "peeking" at the data, unlike classical confidence intervals which require the sample size to be fixed in advance. Existing CSs in the literature are nonasymptotic, and hence do not enjoy the aforementioned broad applicability of asymptotic confidence intervals. Our work bridges the gap by giving a definition for "asymptotic CSs", and deriving a universal asymptotic CS that requires only weak CLT-like assumptions. While the CLT approximates the distribution of a sample average by that of a Gaussian at a fixed sample size, we use strong invariance principles (stemming from the seminal 1960s work of Strassen and improvements by Koml\'os, Major, and Tusn\'ady) to uniformly approximate the entire sample average process by an implicit Gaussian process. As an illustration of our theory, we derive asymptotic CSs for the average treatment effect using efficient estimators in observational studies (for which no nonasymptotic bounds can exist even in the fixed-time regime) as well as randomized experiments, enabling causal inference that can be continuously monitored and adaptively stopped.