It is well known that the state space (SS) model formulation of a Gaussian process (GP) can lower its training and prediction time both to O(n) for n data points. We prove that an $m$-dimensional SS model formulation of GP is equivalent to a concept we introduce as the general right Kernel Packet (KP): a transformation for the GP covariance function $K$ such that $\sum_{i=0}^{m}a_iD_t^{(j)}K(t,t_i)=0$ holds for any $t \leq t_1$, 0 $\leq j \leq m-1$, and $m+1$ consecutive points $t_i$, where ${D}_t^{(j)}f(t) $ denotes $j$-th order derivative acting on $t$. We extend this idea to the backward SS model formulation of the GP, leading to the concept of the left KP for next $m$ consecutive points: $\sum_{i=0}^{m}b_i{D}_t^{(j)}K(t,t_{m+i})=0$ for any $t\geq t_{2m}$. By combining both left and right KPs, we can prove that a suitable linear combination of these covariance functions yields $m$ compactly supported KP functions: $\phi^{(j)}(t)=0$ for any $t\not\in(t_0,t_{2m})$ and $j=0,\cdots,m-1$. KPs further reduces the prediction time of GP to O(log n) or even O(1) and can be applied to more general problems involving the derivative of GPs.
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This work addresses the problem of high-dimensional classification by exploring the generalized Bayesian logistic regression method under a sparsity-inducing prior distribution. The method involves utilizing a fractional power of the likelihood resulting the fractional posterior. Our study yields concentration results for the fractional posterior, not only on the joint distribution of the predictor and response variable but also for the regression coefficients. Significantly, we derive novel findings concerning misclassification excess risk bounds using sparse generalized Bayesian logistic regression. These results parallel recent findings for penalized methods in the frequentist literature. Furthermore, we extend our results to the scenario of model misspecification, which is of critical importance.
The Fisher-Rao distance between two probability distributions of a statistical model is defined as the Riemannian geodesic distance induced by the Fisher information metric. In order to calculate the Fisher-Rao distance in closed-form, we need (1) to elicit a formula for the Fisher-Rao geodesics, and (2) to integrate the Fisher length element along those geodesics. We consider several numerically robust approximation and bounding techniques for the Fisher-Rao distances: First, we report generic upper bounds on Fisher-Rao distances based on closed-form 1D Fisher-Rao distances of submodels. Second, we describe several generic approximation schemes depending on whether the Fisher-Rao geodesics or pregeodesics are available in closed-form or not. In particular, we obtain a generic method to guarantee an arbitrarily small additive error on the approximation provided that Fisher-Rao pregeodesics and tight lower and upper bounds are available. Third, we consider the case of Fisher metrics being Hessian metrics, and report generic tight upper bounds on the Fisher-Rao distances using techniques of information geometry. Uniparametric and biparametric statistical models always have Fisher Hessian metrics, and in general a simple test allows to check whether the Fisher information matrix yields a Hessian metric or not. Fourth, we consider elliptical distribution families and show how to apply the above techniques to these models. We also propose two new distances based either on the Fisher-Rao lengths of curves serving as proxies of Fisher-Rao geodesics, or based on the Birkhoff/Hilbert projective cone distance. Last, we consider an alternative group-theoretic approach for statistical transformation models based on the notion of maximal invariant which yields insights on the structures of the Fisher-Rao distance formula which may be used fruitfully in applications.
Accelerated failure time (AFT) models are frequently used for modelling survival data. This approach is attractive as it quantifies the direct relationship between the time until an event occurs and various covariates. It asserts that the failure times experience either acceleration or deceleration through a multiplicative factor when these covariates are present. While existing literature provides numerous methods for fitting AFT models with time-fixed covariates, adapting these approaches to scenarios involving both time-varying covariates and partly interval-censored data remains challenging. In this paper, we introduce a maximum penalised likelihood approach to fit a semiparametric AFT model. This method, designed for survival data with partly interval-censored failure times, accommodates both time-fixed and time-varying covariates. We utilise Gaussian basis functions to construct a smooth approximation of the nonparametric baseline hazard and fit the model via a constrained optimisation approach. To illustrate the effectiveness of our proposed method, we conduct a comprehensive simulation study. We also present an implementation of our approach on a randomised clinical trial dataset on advanced melanoma patients.
Moment models with suitable closure can lead to accurate and computationally efficient solvers for particle transport. Hence, we propose a new asymptotic preserving scheme for the M1 model of linear transport that works uniformly for any Knudsen number. Our idea is to apply the M1 closure at the numerical level to an existing asymptotic preserving scheme for the corresponding kinetic equation, namely the Unified Gas Kinetic scheme (UGKS) originally proposed in [27] and extended to linear transport in [24]. In order to ensure the moments realizability in this new scheme, the UGKS positivity needs to be maintained. We propose a new density reconstruction in time to obtain this property. A second order extension is also suggested and validated. Several test cases show the performances of this new scheme.
Traffic Weaver is a Python package developed to generate a semi-synthetic signal (time series) with finer granularity, based on averaged time series, in a manner that, upon averaging, closely matches the original signal provided. The key components utilized to recreate the signal encompass oversampling with a given strategy, stretching to match the integral of the original time series, smoothing, repeating, applying trend, and adding noise. The primary motivation behind Traffic Weaver is to furnish semi-synthetic time-varying traffic in telecommunication networks, facilitating the development and validation of traffic prediction models, as well as aiding in the deployment of network optimization algorithms tailored for time-varying traffic.
Importance Sampling (IS), an effective variance reduction strategy in Monte Carlo (MC) simulation, is frequently utilized for Bayesian inference and other statistical challenges. Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) replaces the random samples in MC with low discrepancy points and has the potential to substantially enhance error rates. In this paper, we integrate IS with a randomly shifted rank-1 lattice rule, a widely used QMC method, to approximate posterior expectations arising from Bayesian Inverse Problems (BIPs) where the posterior density tends to concentrate as the intensity of noise diminishes. Within the framework of weighted Hilbert spaces, we first establish the convergence rate of the lattice rule for a large class of unbounded integrands. This method extends to the analysis of QMC combined with IS in BIPs. Furthermore, we explore the robustness of the IS-based randomly shifted rank-1 lattice rule by determining the quadrature error rate with respect to the noise level. The effects of using Gaussian distributions and $t$-distributions as the proposal distributions on the error rate of QMC are comprehensively investigated. We find that the error rate may deteriorate at low intensity of noise when using improper proposals, such as the prior distribution. To reclaim the effectiveness of QMC, we propose a new IS method such that the lattice rule with $N$ quadrature points achieves an optimal error rate close to $O(N^{-1})$, which is insensitive to the noise level. Numerical experiments are conducted to support the theoretical results.
We propose Texture Edge detection using Patch consensus (TEP) which is a training-free method to detect the boundary of texture. We propose a new simple way to identify the texture edge location, using the consensus of segmented local patch information. While on the boundary, even using local patch information, the distinction between textures are typically not clear, but using neighbor consensus give a clear idea of the boundary. We utilize local patch, and its response against neighboring regions, to emphasize the similarities and the differences across different textures. The step of segmentation of response further emphasizes the edge location, and the neighborhood voting gives consensus and stabilize the edge detection. We analyze texture as a stationary process to give insight into the patch width parameter verses the quality of edge detection. We derive the necessary condition for textures to be distinguished, and analyze the patch width with respect to the scale of textures. Various experiments are presented to validate the proposed model.
This work presents the cubature scheme for the fitting of spatio-temporal Poisson point processes. The methodology is implemented in the R Core Team (2024) package stopp (D'Angelo and Adelfio, 2023), published on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN) and available from //CRAN.R-project.org/package=stopp. Since the number of dummy points should be sufficient for an accurate estimate of the likelihood, numerical experiments are currently under development to give guidelines on this aspect.
Confidence intervals based on the central limit theorem (CLT) are a cornerstone of classical statistics. Despite being only asymptotically valid, they are ubiquitous because they permit statistical inference under weak assumptions and can often be applied to problems even when nonasymptotic inference is impossible. This paper introduces time-uniform analogues of such asymptotic confidence intervals, adding to the literature on confidence sequences (CS) -- sequences of confidence intervals that are uniformly valid over time -- which provide valid inference at arbitrary stopping times and incur no penalties for "peeking" at the data, unlike classical confidence intervals which require the sample size to be fixed in advance. Existing CSs in the literature are nonasymptotic, enjoying finite-sample guarantees but not the aforementioned broad applicability of asymptotic confidence intervals. This work provides a definition for "asymptotic CSs" and a general recipe for deriving them. Asymptotic CSs forgo nonasymptotic validity for CLT-like versatility and (asymptotic) time-uniform guarantees. While the CLT approximates the distribution of a sample average by that of a Gaussian for a fixed sample size, we use strong invariance principles (stemming from the seminal 1960s work of Strassen) to uniformly approximate the entire sample average process by an implicit Gaussian process. As an illustration, we derive asymptotic CSs for the average treatment effect in observational studies (for which nonasymptotic bounds are essentially impossible to derive even in the fixed-time regime) as well as randomized experiments, enabling causal inference in sequential environments.
In the past few years, the emergence of pre-training models has brought uni-modal fields such as computer vision (CV) and natural language processing (NLP) to a new era. Substantial works have shown they are beneficial for downstream uni-modal tasks and avoid training a new model from scratch. So can such pre-trained models be applied to multi-modal tasks? Researchers have explored this problem and made significant progress. This paper surveys recent advances and new frontiers in vision-language pre-training (VLP), including image-text and video-text pre-training. To give readers a better overall grasp of VLP, we first review its recent advances from five aspects: feature extraction, model architecture, pre-training objectives, pre-training datasets, and downstream tasks. Then, we summarize the specific VLP models in detail. Finally, we discuss the new frontiers in VLP. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first survey on VLP. We hope that this survey can shed light on future research in the VLP field.
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