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Although being a crucial question for the development of machine learning algorithms, there is still no consensus on how to compare classifiers over multiple data sets with respect to several criteria. Every comparison framework is confronted with (at least) three fundamental challenges: the multiplicity of quality criteria, the multiplicity of data sets and the randomness of the selection of data sets. In this paper, we add a fresh view to the vivid debate by adopting recent developments in decision theory. Based on so-called preference systems, our framework ranks classifiers by a generalized concept of stochastic dominance, which powerfully circumvents the cumbersome, and often even self-contradictory, reliance on aggregates. Moreover, we show that generalized stochastic dominance can be operationalized by solving easy-to-handle linear programs and moreover statistically tested employing an adapted two-sample observation-randomization test. This yields indeed a powerful framework for the statistical comparison of classifiers over multiple data sets with respect to multiple quality criteria simultaneously. We illustrate and investigate our framework in a simulation study and with a set of standard benchmark data sets.

The paradigm of self-supervision focuses on representation learning from raw data without the need of labor-consuming annotations, which is the main bottleneck of current data-driven methods. Self-supervision tasks are often used to pre-train a neural network with a large amount of unlabeled data and extract generic features of the dataset. The learned model is likely to contain useful information which can be transferred to the downstream main task and improve performance compared to random parameter initialization. In this paper, we propose a new self-supervision task called source identification (SI), which is inspired by the classic blind source separation problem. Synthetic images are generated by fusing multiple source images and the network's task is to reconstruct the original images, given the fused images. A proper understanding of the image content is required to successfully solve the task. We validate our method on two medical image segmentation tasks: brain tumor segmentation and white matter hyperintensities segmentation. The results show that the proposed SI task outperforms traditional self-supervision tasks for dense predictions including inpainting, pixel shuffling, intensity shift, and super-resolution. Among variations of the SI task fusing images of different types, fusing images from different patients performs best.

During the past decade, metal additive manufacturing (MAM) has experienced significant developments and gained much attention due to its ability to fabricate complex parts, manufacture products with functionally graded materials, minimize waste, and enable low-cost customization. Despite these advantages, predicting the impact of processing parameters on the characteristics of an MAM printed clad is challenging due to the complex nature of MAM processes. Machine learning (ML) techniques can help connect the physics underlying the process and processing parameters to the clad characteristics. In this study, we introduce a hybrid approach which involves utilizing the data provided by a calibrated multi-physics computational fluid dynamic (CFD) model and experimental research for preparing the essential big dataset, and then uses a comprehensive framework consisting of various ML models to predict and understand clad characteristics. We first compile an extensive dataset by fusing experimental data into the data generated using the developed CFD model for this study. This dataset comprises critical clad characteristics, including geometrical features such as width, height, and depth, labels identifying clad quality, and processing parameters. Second, we use two sets of processing parameters for training the ML models: machine setting parameters and physics-aware parameters, along with versatile ML models and reliable evaluation metrics to create a comprehensive and scalable learning framework for predicting clad geometry and quality. This framework can serve as a basis for clad characteristics control and process optimization. The framework resolves many challenges of conventional modeling methods in MAM by solving t the issue of data scarcity using a hybrid approach and introducing an efficient, accurate, and scalable platform for clad characteristics prediction and optimization.

We propose a new model for nonstationary integer-valued time series which is particularly suitable for data with a strong trend. In contrast to popular Poisson-INGARCH models, but in line with classical GARCH models, we propose to pick the conditional distributions from nearly scale invariant families where the mean absolute value and the standard deviation are of the same order of magnitude. As an important prerequisite for applications in statistics, we prove absolute regularity of the count process with exponentially decaying coefficients.

Regression analysis based on many covariates is becoming increasingly common. However, when the number of covariates $p$ is of the same order as the number of observations $n$, statistical protocols like maximum likelihood estimation of regression and nuisance parameters become unreliable due to overfitting. Overfitting typically leads to systematic estimation biases, and to increased estimator variances. It is crucial to be able to correctly quantify these effects, for inference and prediction purposes. In literature, several methods have been proposed to overcome overfitting bias or adjust estimates. The vast majority of these focus on the regression parameters only, either via empirical regularization methods or by expansion for small ratios $p/n$. This failure to correctly estimate also the nuisance parameters may lead to significant errors in outcome predictions. In this paper we use the leave one out method to derive the compact set of non-linear equations for the overfitting biases of maximum likelihood (ML) estimators in parametric regression models, as obtained previously using the replica method. We show that these equations enable one to correct regression and nuisance parameter estimators, and make them asymptotically unbiased. To illustrate the theory we performed simulation studies for multiple regression models. In all cases we find excellent agreement between theory and simulations.

In this study, we focus on the development and implementation of a comprehensive ensemble of numerical time series forecasting models, collectively referred to as the Group of Numerical Time Series Prediction Model (G-NM). This inclusive set comprises traditional models such as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Holt-Winters' method, and Support Vector Regression (SVR), in addition to modern neural network models including Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). G-NM is explicitly constructed to augment our predictive capabilities related to patterns and trends inherent in complex natural phenomena. By utilizing time series data relevant to these events, G-NM facilitates the prediction of such phenomena over extended periods. The primary objective of this research is to both advance our understanding of such occurrences and to significantly enhance the accuracy of our forecasts. G-NM encapsulates both linear and non-linear dependencies, seasonalities, and trends present in time series data. Each of these models contributes distinct strengths, from ARIMA's resilience in handling linear trends and seasonality, SVR's proficiency in capturing non-linear patterns, to LSTM's adaptability in modeling various components of time series data. Through the exploitation of the G-NM potential, we strive to advance the state-of-the-art in large-scale time series forecasting models. We anticipate that this research will represent a significant stepping stone in our ongoing endeavor to comprehend and forecast the complex events that constitute the natural world.

The features in many prediction models naturally take the form of a hierarchy. The lower levels represent individuals or events. These units group naturally into locations and intervals or other aggregates, often at multiple levels. Levels of groupings may intersect and join, much as relational database tables do. Besides representing the structure of the data, predictive features in hierarchical models can be assigned to their proper levels. Such models lend themselves to hierarchical Bayes solution methods that ``share'' results of inference between groups by generalizing over the case of individual models for each group versus one model that aggregates all groups into one. In this paper we show our work-in-progress applying a hierarchical Bayesian model to forecast purchases throughout the day at store franchises, with groupings over locations and days of the week. We demonstrate using the \textsf{stan} package on individual sales transaction data collected over the course of a year. We show how this solves the dilemma of having limited data and hence modest accuracy for each day and location, while being able to scale to a large number of locations with improved accuracy.

Sports betting's recent federal legalisation in the USA coincides with the golden age of machine learning. If bettors can leverage data to reliably predict the probability of an outcome, they can recognise when the bookmaker's odds are in their favour. As sports betting is a multi-billion dollar industry in the USA alone, identifying such opportunities could be extremely lucrative. Many researchers have applied machine learning to the sports outcome prediction problem, generally using accuracy to evaluate the performance of predictive models. We hypothesise that for the sports betting problem, model calibration is more important than accuracy. To test this hypothesis, we train models on NBA data over several seasons and run betting experiments on a single season, using published odds. We show that optimising the predictive model for calibration leads to greater returns than optimising for accuracy, on average (return on investment of $+34.69\%$ versus $-35.17\%$) and in the best case ($+36.93\%$ versus $+5.56\%$). These findings suggest that for sports betting (or any probabilistic decision-making problem), calibration is a more important metric than accuracy. Sports bettors who wish to increase profits should therefore optimise their predictive model for calibration.

Image segmentation is still an open problem especially when intensities of the interested objects are overlapped due to the presence of intensity inhomogeneity (also known as bias field). To segment images with intensity inhomogeneities, a bias correction embedded level set model is proposed where Inhomogeneities are Estimated by Orthogonal Primary Functions (IEOPF). In the proposed model, the smoothly varying bias is estimated by a linear combination of a given set of orthogonal primary functions. An inhomogeneous intensity clustering energy is then defined and membership functions of the clusters described by the level set function are introduced to rewrite the energy as a data term of the proposed model. Similar to popular level set methods, a regularization term and an arc length term are also included to regularize and smooth the level set function, respectively. The proposed model is then extended to multichannel and multiphase patterns to segment colourful images and images with multiple objects, respectively. It has been extensively tested on both synthetic and real images that are widely used in the literature and public BrainWeb and IBSR datasets. Experimental results and comparison with state-of-the-art methods demonstrate that advantages of the proposed model in terms of bias correction and segmentation accuracy.

Person Re-identification (re-id) faces two major challenges: the lack of cross-view paired training data and learning discriminative identity-sensitive and view-invariant features in the presence of large pose variations. In this work, we address both problems by proposing a novel deep person image generation model for synthesizing realistic person images conditional on pose. The model is based on a generative adversarial network (GAN) and used specifically for pose normalization in re-id, thus termed pose-normalization GAN (PN-GAN). With the synthesized images, we can learn a new type of deep re-id feature free of the influence of pose variations. We show that this feature is strong on its own and highly complementary to features learned with the original images. Importantly, we now have a model that generalizes to any new re-id dataset without the need for collecting any training data for model fine-tuning, thus making a deep re-id model truly scalable. Extensive experiments on five benchmarks show that our model outperforms the state-of-the-art models, often significantly. In particular, the features learned on Market-1501 can achieve a Rank-1 accuracy of 68.67% on VIPeR without any model fine-tuning, beating almost all existing models fine-tuned on the dataset.