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We present a new approach to semiparametric inference using corrected posterior distributions. The method allows us to leverage the adaptivity, regularization and predictive power of nonparametric Bayesian procedures to estimate low-dimensional functionals of interest without being restricted by the holistic Bayesian formalism. Starting from a conventional nonparametric posterior, we target the functional of interest by transforming the entire distribution with a Bayesian bootstrap correction. We provide conditions for the resulting $\textit{one-step posterior}$ to possess calibrated frequentist properties and specialize the results for several canonical examples: the integrated squared density, the mean of a missing-at-random outcome, and the average causal treatment effect on the treated. The procedure is computationally attractive, requiring only a simple, efficient post-processing step that can be attached onto any arbitrary posterior sampling algorithm. Using the ACIC 2016 causal data analysis competition, we illustrate that our approach can outperform the existing state-of-the-art through the propagation of Bayesian uncertainty.

This paper presents a novel approach to Bayesian nonparametric spectral analysis of stationary multivariate time series. Starting with a parametric vector-autoregressive model, the parametric likelihood is nonparametrically adjusted in the frequency domain to account for potential deviations from parametric assumptions. We show mutual contiguity of the nonparametrically corrected likelihood, the multivariate Whittle likelihood approximation and the exact likelihood for Gaussian time series. A multivariate extension of the nonparametric Bernstein-Dirichlet process prior for univariate spectral densities to the space of Hermitian positive definite spectral density matrices is specified directly on the correction matrices. An infinite series representation of this prior is then used to develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from the posterior distribution. The code is made publicly available for ease of use and reproducibility. With this novel approach we provide a generalization of the multivariate Whittle-likelihood-based method of Meier et al. (2020) as well as an extension of the nonparametrically corrected likelihood for univariate stationary time series of Kirch et al. (2019) to the multivariate case. We demonstrate that the nonparametrically corrected likelihood combines the efficiencies of a parametric with the robustness of a nonparametric model. Its numerical accuracy is illustrated in a comprehensive simulation study. We illustrate its practical advantages by a spectral analysis of two environmental time series data sets: a bivariate time series of the Southern Oscillation Index and fish recruitment and time series of windspeed data at six locations in California.

We propose a new algorithm for the problem of recovering data that adheres to multiple, heterogeneous low-dimensional structures from linear observations. Focusing on data matrices that are simultaneously row-sparse and low-rank, we propose and analyze an iteratively reweighted least squares (IRLS) algorithm that is able to leverage both structures. In particular, it optimizes a combination of non-convex surrogates for row-sparsity and rank, a balancing of which is built into the algorithm. We prove locally quadratic convergence of the iterates to a simultaneously structured data matrix in a regime of minimal sample complexity (up to constants and a logarithmic factor), which is known to be impossible for a combination of convex surrogates. In experiments, we show that the IRLS method exhibits favorable empirical convergence, identifying simultaneously row-sparse and low-rank matrices from fewer measurements than state-of-the-art methods.

Estimation of signal-to-noise ratios and residual variances in high-dimensional linear models has various important applications including, e.g. heritability estimation in bioinformatics. One commonly used estimator, usually referred to as REML, is based on the likelihood of the random effects model, in which both the regression coefficients and the noise variables are respectively assumed to be i.i.d Gaussian random variables. In this paper, we aim to establish the consistency and asymptotic distribution of the REML estimator for the SNR, when the actual coefficient vector is fixed, and the actual noise is heteroscedastic and correlated, at the cost of assuming the entries of the design matrix are independent and skew-free. The asymptotic variance can be also consistently estimated when the noise is heteroscedastic but uncorrelated. Extensive numerical simulations illustrate our theoretical findings and also suggest some assumptions imposed in our theoretical results are likely relaxable.

In the setting of functional data analysis, we derive optimal rates of convergence in the supremum norm for estimating the H\"older-smooth mean function of a stochastic processes which is repeatedly and discretely observed at fixed, multivariate, synchronous design points and with additional errors. Similarly to the rates in $L_2$ obtained in Cai and Yuan (2011), for sparse design a discretization term dominates, while in the dense case the $\sqrt n$ rate can be achieved as if the $n$ processes were continuously observed without errors. However, our analysis differs in several respects from Cai and Yuan (2011). First, we do not assume that the paths of the processes are as smooth as the mean, but still obtain the $\sqrt n$ rate of convergence without additional logarithmic factors in the dense setting. Second, we show that in the supremum norm, there is an intermediate regime between the sparse and dense cases dominated by the contribution of the observation errors. Third, and in contrast to the analysis in $L_2$, interpolation estimators turn out to be sub-optimal in $L_\infty$ in the dense setting, which explains their poor empirical performance. We also obtain a central limit theorem in the supremum norm and discuss the selection of the bandwidth. Simulations and real data applications illustrate the results.

The theory of Koopman operators allows to deploy non-parametric machine learning algorithms to predict and analyze complex dynamical systems. Estimators such as principal component regression (PCR) or reduced rank regression (RRR) in kernel spaces can be shown to provably learn Koopman operators from finite empirical observations of the system's time evolution. Scaling these approaches to very long trajectories is a challenge and requires introducing suitable approximations to make computations feasible. In this paper, we boost the efficiency of different kernel-based Koopman operator estimators using random projections (sketching). We derive, implement and test the new "sketched" estimators with extensive experiments on synthetic and large-scale molecular dynamics datasets. Further, we establish non asymptotic error bounds giving a sharp characterization of the trade-offs between statistical learning rates and computational efficiency. Our empirical and theoretical analysis shows that the proposed estimators provide a sound and efficient way to learn large scale dynamical systems. In particular our experiments indicate that the proposed estimators retain the same accuracy of PCR or RRR, while being much faster.

Long-term outcomes of experimental evaluations are necessarily observed after long delays. We develop semiparametric methods for combining the short-term outcomes of experiments with observational measurements of short-term and long-term outcomes, in order to estimate long-term treatment effects. We characterize semiparametric efficiency bounds for various instances of this problem. These calculations facilitate the construction of several estimators. We analyze the finite-sample performance of these estimators with a simulation calibrated to data from an evaluation of the long-term effects of a poverty alleviation program.

Dynamic Linear Models (DLMs) are commonly employed for time series analysis due to their versatile structure, simple recursive updating, ability to handle missing data, and probabilistic forecasting. However, the options for count time series are limited: Gaussian DLMs require continuous data, while Poisson-based alternatives often lack sufficient modeling flexibility. We introduce a novel semiparametric methodology for count time series by warping a Gaussian DLM. The warping function has two components: a (nonparametric) transformation operator that provides distributional flexibility and a rounding operator that ensures the correct support for the discrete data-generating process. We develop conjugate inference for the warped DLM, which enables analytic and recursive updates for the state space filtering and smoothing distributions. We leverage these results to produce customized and efficient algorithms for inference and forecasting, including Monte Carlo simulation for offline analysis and an optimal particle filter for online inference. This framework unifies and extends a variety of discrete time series models and is valid for natural counts, rounded values, and multivariate observations. Simulation studies illustrate the excellent forecasting capabilities of the warped DLM. The proposed approach is applied to a multivariate time series of daily overdose counts and demonstrates both modeling and computational successes.

We consider the problem of discovering $K$ related Gaussian directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), where the involved graph structures share a consistent causal order and sparse unions of supports. Under the multi-task learning setting, we propose a $l_1/l_2$-regularized maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for learning $K$ linear structural equation models. We theoretically show that the joint estimator, by leveraging data across related tasks, can achieve a better sample complexity for recovering the causal order (or topological order) than separate estimations. Moreover, the joint estimator is able to recover non-identifiable DAGs, by estimating them together with some identifiable DAGs. Lastly, our analysis also shows the consistency of union support recovery of the structures. To allow practical implementation, we design a continuous optimization problem whose optimizer is the same as the joint estimator and can be approximated efficiently by an iterative algorithm. We validate the theoretical analysis and the effectiveness of the joint estimator in experiments.

With the rapid increase of large-scale, real-world datasets, it becomes critical to address the problem of long-tailed data distribution (i.e., a few classes account for most of the data, while most classes are under-represented). Existing solutions typically adopt class re-balancing strategies such as re-sampling and re-weighting based on the number of observations for each class. In this work, we argue that as the number of samples increases, the additional benefit of a newly added data point will diminish. We introduce a novel theoretical framework to measure data overlap by associating with each sample a small neighboring region rather than a single point. The effective number of samples is defined as the volume of samples and can be calculated by a simple formula $(1-\beta^{n})/(1-\beta)$, where $n$ is the number of samples and $\beta \in [0,1)$ is a hyperparameter. We design a re-weighting scheme that uses the effective number of samples for each class to re-balance the loss, thereby yielding a class-balanced loss. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on artificially induced long-tailed CIFAR datasets and large-scale datasets including ImageNet and iNaturalist. Our results show that when trained with the proposed class-balanced loss, the network is able to achieve significant performance gains on long-tailed datasets.