Estimation of signal-to-noise ratios and residual variances in high-dimensional linear models has various important applications including, e.g. heritability estimation in bioinformatics. One commonly used estimator, usually referred to as REML, is based on the likelihood of the random effects model, in which both the regression coefficients and the noise variables are respectively assumed to be i.i.d Gaussian random variables. In this paper, we aim to establish the consistency and asymptotic distribution of the REML estimator for the SNR, when the actual coefficient vector is fixed, and the actual noise is heteroscedastic and correlated, at the cost of assuming the entries of the design matrix are independent and skew-free. The asymptotic variance can be also consistently estimated when the noise is heteroscedastic but uncorrelated. Extensive numerical simulations illustrate our theoretical findings and also suggest some assumptions imposed in our theoretical results are likely relaxable.
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We consider the problem of parameter estimation, based on noisy chaotic signals, from the viewpoint of twisted modulation for waveform communication. In particular, we study communication systems where the parameter to be estimated is conveyed as the initial condition of a chaotic dynamical system of a certain class and we examine its estimation performance in terms of the expectation of a given convex function of the estimation error at high SNR, under the demand that the probability of anomaly is kept small. We derive a lower bound on the weak-noise estimation error for this class of chaotic modulators, and argue that it can be outperformed by using the itinerary signal associated with the chaotic system instead of the main chaotic output signal.
Noise is a part of data whether the data is from measurement, experiment or ... A few techniques are suggested for noise reduction to improve the data quality in recent years some of which are based on wavelet, orthogonalization and neural networks. The computational cost of existing methods are more than expected and that's why their application in some cases is not beneficial. In this paper, we suggest a low cost techniques based on special linear algebra structures (tridiagonal systems) to improve the signal quality. In this method, we suggest a tridiagonal model for the noise around the most noisy elements. To update the predicted noise, the algorithm is equipped with a learning/feedback approach. The details are described below and based on presented numerical results this algorithm is successful in computing the noise with lower MSE (mean squared error) in computation time specially when the data size is lower than 5000. Our algorithm is used for low-range noise while for high-range noise it is sufficient to use the presented algorithm in hybrid with moving average. The algorithm is implemented in MATLAB 2019b on a computer with Windows 11 having 8GB RAM. It is then tested over many randomly generated experiments. The numerical results confirm the efficiency of presented algorithm in most cases in comparison with existing methods.
Practitioners in diverse fields such as healthcare, economics and education are eager to apply machine learning to improve decision making. The cost and impracticality of performing experiments and a recent monumental increase in electronic record keeping has brought attention to the problem of evaluating decisions based on non-experimental observational data. This is the setting of this work. In particular, we study estimation of individual-level causal effects, such as a single patient's response to alternative medication, from recorded contexts, decisions and outcomes. We give generalization bounds on the error in estimated effects based on distance measures between groups receiving different treatments, allowing for sample re-weighting. We provide conditions under which our bound is tight and show how it relates to results for unsupervised domain adaptation. Led by our theoretical results, we devise representation learning algorithms that minimize our bound, by regularizing the representation's induced treatment group distance, and encourage sharing of information between treatment groups. We extend these algorithms to simultaneously learn a weighted representation to further reduce treatment group distances. Finally, an experimental evaluation on real and synthetic data shows the value of our proposed representation architecture and regularization scheme.
The marginal structure quantile model (MSQM) provides a unique lens to understand the causal effect of a time-varying treatment on the full distribution of potential outcomes. Under the semiparametric framework, we derive the efficiency influence function for the MSQM, from which a doubly robust estimator is proposed. We show that the doubly robust estimator is consistent if either of the models associated with treatment assignment or the potential outcome distributions is correctly specified, and is semiparametrically efficient if both models are correct. We also develop a novel sensitivity analysis framework for the assumption of no unmeasured time-varying confounding.
Estimating the ratio of two probability densities from finitely many observations of the densities is a central problem in machine learning and statistics with applications in two-sample testing, divergence estimation, generative modeling, covariate shift adaptation, conditional density estimation, and novelty detection. In this work, we analyze a large class of density ratio estimation methods that minimize a regularized Bregman divergence between the true density ratio and a model in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). We derive new finite-sample error bounds, and we propose a Lepskii type parameter choice principle that minimizes the bounds without knowledge of the regularity of the density ratio. In the special case of quadratic loss, our method adaptively achieves a minimax optimal error rate. A numerical illustration is provided.
The past decade has seen increasing interest in applying Deep Learning (DL) to Computational Science and Engineering (CSE). Driven by impressive results in applications such as computer vision, Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), genetics, simulations and image processing, DL is increasingly supplanting classical algorithms, and seems poised to revolutionize scientific computing. However, DL is not yet well-understood from the standpoint of numerical analysis. Little is known about the efficiency and reliability of DL from the perspectives of stability, robustness, accuracy, and sample complexity. In particular, approximating solutions to parametric PDEs is an objective of UQ for CSE. Training data for such problems is often scarce and corrupted by errors. Moreover, the target function is a possibly infinite-dimensional smooth function taking values in the PDE solution space, generally an infinite-dimensional Banach space. This paper provides arguments for Deep Neural Network (DNN) approximation of such functions, with both known and unknown parametric dependence, that overcome the curse of dimensionality. We establish practical existence theorems that describe classes of DNNs with dimension-independent architecture size and training procedures based on minimizing the (regularized) $\ell^2$-loss which achieve near-optimal algebraic rates of convergence. These results involve key extensions of compressed sensing for Banach-valued recovery and polynomial emulation with DNNs. When approximating solutions of parametric PDEs, our results account for all sources of error, i.e., sampling, optimization, approximation and physical discretization, and allow for training high-fidelity DNN approximations from coarse-grained sample data. Our theoretical results fall into the category of non-intrusive methods, providing a theoretical alternative to classical methods for high-dimensional approximation.
The exponential-family random graph models (ERGMs) have emerged as an important framework for modeling social networks for a wide variety of relational types. ERGMs for valued networks are less well-developed than their unvalued counterparts, and pose particular computational challenges. Network data with edge values on the non-negative integers (count-valued networks) is an important such case, with examples ranging from the magnitude of migration and trade flows between places to the frequency of interactions and encounters between individuals. Here, we propose an efficient parallelable subsampled maximum pseudo-likelihood estimation (MPLE) scheme for count-valued ERGMs, and compare its performance with existing Contrastive Divergence (CD) and Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MCMLE) approaches via a simulation study based on migration flow networks in two U.S. states. Our results suggest that edge value variance is a key factor in method performance, while network size mainly influences their relative merits in computational time. For small-variance networks, all methods perform well in point estimations while CD greatly overestimates uncertainties, and MPLE underestimates them for dependence terms; all methods have fast estimation for small networks, but CD and subsampled multi-core MPLE provides speed advantages as network size increases. For large-variance networks, both MPLE and MCMLE offer high-quality estimates of coefficients and their uncertainty, but MPLE is significantly faster than MCMLE; MPLE is also a better seeding method for MCMLE than CD, as the latter makes MCMLE more prone to convergence failure.
We are interested in creating statistical methods to provide informative summaries of random fields through the geometry of their excursion sets. To this end, we introduce an estimator for the length of the perimeter of excursion sets of random fields on $\mathbb{R}^2$ observed over regular square tilings. The proposed estimator acts on the empirically accessible binary digital images of the excursion regions and computes the length of a piecewise linear approximation of the excursion boundary. The estimator is shown to be consistent as the pixel size decreases, without the need of any normalization constant, and with neither assumption of Gaussianity nor isotropy imposed on the underlying random field. In this general framework, even when the domain grows to cover $\mathbb{R}^2$, the estimation error is shown to be of smaller order than the side length of the domain. For affine, strongly mixing random fields, this translates to a multivariate Central Limit Theorem for our estimator when multiple levels are considered simultaneously. Finally, we conduct several numerical studies to investigate statistical properties of the proposed estimator in the finite-sample data setting.
Considerable recent work has focused on methods for analyzing experiments which exhibit treatment interference -- that is, when the treatment status of one unit may affect the response of another unit. Such settings are common in experiments on social networks. We consider a model of treatment interference -- the K-nearest neighbors interference model (KNNIM) -- for which the response of one unit depends not only on the treatment status given to that unit, but also the treatment status of its $K$ ``closest'' neighbors. We derive causal estimands under KNNIM in a way that allows us to identify how each of the $K$-nearest neighbors contributes to the indirect effect of treatment. We propose unbiased estimators for these estimands and derive conservative variance estimates for these unbiased estimators. We then consider extensions of these estimators under an assumption of no weak interaction between direct and indirect effects. We perform a simulation study to determine the efficacy of these estimators under different treatment interference scenarios. We apply our methodology to an experiment designed to assess the impact of a conflict-reducing program in middle schools in New Jersey, and we give evidence that the effect of treatment propagates primarily through a unit's closest connection.
Confounding is a significant obstacle to unbiased estimation of causal effects from observational data. For settings with high-dimensional covariates -- such as text data, genomics, or the behavioral social sciences -- researchers have proposed methods to adjust for confounding by adapting machine learning methods to the goal of causal estimation. However, empirical evaluation of these adjustment methods has been challenging and limited. In this work, we build on a promising empirical evaluation strategy that simplifies evaluation design and uses real data: subsampling randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to create confounded observational datasets while using the average causal effects from the RCTs as ground-truth. We contribute a new sampling algorithm, which we call RCT rejection sampling, and provide theoretical guarantees that causal identification holds in the observational data to allow for valid comparisons to the ground-truth RCT. Using synthetic data, we show our algorithm indeed results in low bias when oracle estimators are evaluated on the confounded samples, which is not always the case for a previously proposed algorithm. In addition to this identification result, we highlight several finite data considerations for evaluation designers who plan to use RCT rejection sampling on their own datasets. As a proof of concept, we implement an example evaluation pipeline and walk through these finite data considerations with a novel, real-world RCT -- which we release publicly -- consisting of approximately 70k observations and text data as high-dimensional covariates. Together, these contributions build towards a broader agenda of improved empirical evaluation for causal estimation.
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