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Gaussian graphical models are nowadays commonly applied to the comparison of groups sharing the same variables, by jointy learning their independence structures. We consider the case where there are exactly two dependent groups and the association structure is represented by a family of coloured Gaussian graphical models suited to deal with paired data problems. To learn the two dependent graphs, together with their across-graph association structure, we implement a fused graphical lasso penalty. We carry out a comprehensive analysis of this approach, with special attention to the role played by some relevant submodel classes. In this way, we provide a broad set of tools for the application of Gaussian graphical models to paired data problems. These include results useful for the specification of penalty values in order to obtain a path of lasso solutions and an ADMM algorithm that solves the fused graphical lasso optimization problem. Finally, we present an application of our method to cancer genomics where it is of interest to compare cancer cells with a control sample from histologically normal tissues adjacent to the tumor. All the methods described in this article are implemented in the $\texttt{R}$ package $\texttt{pdglasso}$ availabe at: //github.com/savranciati/pdglasso.

We consider best arm identification in the multi-armed bandit problem. Assuming certain continuity conditions of the prior, we characterize the rate of the Bayesian simple regret. Differing from Bayesian regret minimization (Lai, 1987), the leading term in the Bayesian simple regret derives from the region where the gap between optimal and suboptimal arms is smaller than $\sqrt{\frac{\log T}{T}}$. We propose a simple and easy-to-compute algorithm with its leading term matching with the lower bound up to a constant factor; simulation results support our theoretical findings.

This paper estimates free energy, average mutual information, and minimum mean square error (MMSE) of a linear model under two assumptions: (1) the source is generated by a Markov chain, (2) the source is generated via a hidden Markov model. Our estimates are based on the replica method in statistical physics. We show that under the posterior mean estimator, the linear model with Markov sources or hidden Markov sources is decoupled into single-input AWGN channels with state information available at both encoder and decoder where the state distribution follows the left Perron-Frobenius eigenvector with unit Manhattan norm of the stochastic matrix of Markov chains. Numerical results show that the free energies and MSEs obtained via the replica method are closely approximate to their counterparts achieved by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm or some well-known approximate message passing algorithms in the research literature.

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are a cornerstone of comparative effectiveness because they remove the confounding bias present in observational studies. However, RCTs are typically much smaller than observational studies because of financial and ethical considerations. Therefore it is of great interest to be able to incorporate plentiful observational data into the analysis of smaller RCTs. Previous estimators developed for this purpose rely on unrealistic additional assumptions without which the added data can bias the effect estimate. Recent work proposed an alternative method (prognostic adjustment) that imposes no additional assumption and increases efficiency in the analysis of RCTs. The idea is to use the observational data to learn a prognostic model: a regression of the outcome onto the covariates. The predictions from this model, generated from the RCT subjects' baseline variables, are used as a covariate in a linear model. In this work, we extend this framework to work when conducting inference with nonparametric efficient estimators in trial analysis. Using simulations, we find that this approach provides greater power (i.e., smaller standard errors) than without prognostic adjustment, especially when the trial is small. We also find that the method is robust to observed or unobserved shifts between the observational and trial populations and does not introduce bias. Lastly, we showcase this estimator leveraging real-world historical data on a randomized blood transfusion study of trauma patients.

We introduce a new class of numerical schemes which allow for low regularity approximations to the expectation $ \mathbb{E}(|u_{k}(\tau, v^{\eta})|^2)$, where $u_k$ denotes the $k$-th Fourier coefficient of the solution $u$ of the dispersive equation and $ v^{\eta}(x) $ the associated random initial data. This quantity plays an important role in physics, in particular in the study of wave turbulence where one needs to adopt a statistical approach in order to obtain deep insight into the generic long-time behaviour of solutions to dispersive equations. Our new class of schemes is based on Wick's theorem and Feynman diagrams together with a resonance based discretisation (see arXiv:2005.01649) set in a more general context: we introduce a novel combinatorial structure called paired decorated forests which are two decorated trees whose decorations on the leaves come in pair. The character of the scheme draws its inspiration from the treatment of singular stochastic partial differential equations via Regularity Structures. In contrast to classical approaches, we do not discretize the PDE itself, but rather its expectation. This allows us to heavily exploit the optimal resonance structure and underlying gain in regularity on the finite dimensional (discrete) level.

Post-stratification is often used to estimate treatment effects with higher efficiency. However, most of the existing post-stratification frameworks depend on prior knowledge of the distributions of covariates and assume that the units are classified into post-strata without error. We propose a novel method to determine a proper stratification rule by mapping the covariates into a post-stratification factor (PSF) using predictive regression models. Inspired by the bootstrap aggregating (bagging) method, we utilize the out-of-bag delete-D jackknife to estimate strata boundaries, strata weights, and the variance of the point estimate. Confidence intervals are constructed with these estimators to take into account the additional variability coming from uncertainty in the strata boundaries and weights. Extensive simulations show that our proposed method consistently improves the efficiency of the estimates when the regression models are predictive and tends to be more robust than the regression imputation method.

The number of modes in a probability density function is representative of the model's complexity and can also be viewed as the number of existing subpopulations. Despite its relevance, little research has been devoted to its estimation. Focusing on the univariate setting, we propose a novel approach targeting prediction accuracy inspired by some overlooked aspects of the problem. We argue for the need for structure in the solutions, the subjective and uncertain nature of modes, and the convenience of a holistic view blending global and local density properties. Our method builds upon a combination of flexible kernel estimators and parsimonious compositional splines. Feature exploration, model selection and mode testing are implemented in the Bayesian inference paradigm, providing soft solutions and allowing to incorporate expert judgement in the process. The usefulness of our proposal is illustrated through a case study in sports analytics, showcasing multiple companion visualisation tools. A thorough simulation study demonstrates that traditional modality-driven approaches paradoxically struggle to provide accurate results. In this context, our method emerges as a top-tier alternative offering innovative solutions for analysts.

Consider the community detection problem in random hypergraphs under the non-uniform hypergraph stochastic block model (HSBM), where each hyperedge appears independently with some given probability depending only on the labels of its vertices. We establish, for the first time in the literature, a sharp threshold for exact recovery under this non-uniform case, subject to minor constraints; in particular, we consider the model with multiple communities ($K \geq 2$). One crucial point here is that by aggregating information from all the uniform layers, we may obtain exact recovery even in cases when this may appear impossible if each layer were considered alone. Two efficient algorithms that successfully achieve exact recovery above the threshold are provided. The theoretical analysis of our algorithms relies on the concentration and regularization of the adjacency matrix for non-uniform random hypergraphs, which could be of independent interest. We also address some open problems regarding parameter knowledge and estimation.

In observational studies, unobserved confounding is a major barrier in isolating the average causal effect (ACE). In these scenarios, two main approaches are often used: confounder adjustment for causality (CAC) and instrumental variable analysis for causation (IVAC). Nevertheless, both are subject to untestable assumptions and, therefore, it may be unclear which assumption violation scenarios one method is superior in terms of mitigating inconsistency for the ACE. Although general guidelines exist, direct theoretical comparisons of the trade-offs between CAC and the IVAC assumptions are limited. Using ordinary least squares (OLS) for CAC and two-stage least squares (2SLS) for IVAC, we analytically compare the relative inconsistency for the ACE of each approach under a variety of assumption violation scenarios and discuss rules of thumb for practice. Additionally, a sensitivity framework is proposed to guide analysts in determining which approach may result in less inconsistency for estimating the ACE with a given dataset. We demonstrate our findings both through simulation and an application examining whether maternal stress during pregnancy affects a neonate's birthweight. The implications of our findings for causal inference practice are discussed, providing guidance for analysts for judging whether CAC or IVAC may be more appropriate for a given situation.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.