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Generative AI systems across modalities, ranging from text, image, audio, and video, have broad social impacts, but there exists no official standard for means of evaluating those impacts and which impacts should be evaluated. We move toward a standard approach in evaluating a generative AI system for any modality, in two overarching categories: what is able to be evaluated in a base system that has no predetermined application and what is able to be evaluated in society. We describe specific social impact categories and how to approach and conduct evaluations in the base technical system, then in people and society. Our framework for a base system defines seven categories of social impact: bias, stereotypes, and representational harms; cultural values and sensitive content; disparate performance; privacy and data protection; financial costs; environmental costs; and data and content moderation labor costs. Suggested methods for evaluation apply to all modalities and analyses of the limitations of existing evaluations serve as a starting point for necessary investment in future evaluations. We offer five overarching categories for what is able to be evaluated in society, each with their own subcategories: trustworthiness and autonomy; inequality, marginalization, and violence; concentration of authority; labor and creativity; and ecosystem and environment. Each subcategory includes recommendations for mitigating harm. We are concurrently crafting an evaluation repository for the AI research community to contribute existing evaluations along the given categories. This version will be updated following a CRAFT session at ACM FAccT 2023.

When estimating a regression model, we might have data where some labels are missing, or our data might be biased by a selection mechanism. When the response or selection mechanism is ignorable (i.e., independent of the response variable given the features) one can use off-the-shelf regression methods; in the nonignorable case one typically has to adjust for bias. We observe that privileged information (i.e. information that is only available during training) might render a nonignorable selection mechanism ignorable, and we refer to this scenario as Privilegedly Missing at Random (PMAR). We propose a novel imputation-based regression method, named repeated regression, that is suitable for PMAR. We also consider an importance weighted regression method, and a doubly robust combination of the two. The proposed methods are easy to implement with most popular out-of-the-box regression algorithms. We empirically assess the performance of the proposed methods with extensive simulated experiments and on a synthetically augmented real-world dataset. We conclude that repeated regression can appropriately correct for bias, and can have considerable advantage over weighted regression, especially when extrapolating to regions of the feature space where response is never observed.

In the classic machine learning framework, models are trained on historical data and used to predict future values. It is assumed that the data distribution does not change over time (stationarity). However, in real-world scenarios, the data generation process changes over time and the model has to adapt to the new incoming data. This phenomenon is known as concept drift and leads to a decrease in the predictive model's performance. In this study, we propose a new concept drift detection method based on autoregressive models called ADDM. This method can be integrated into any machine learning algorithm from deep neural networks to simple linear regression model. Our results show that this new concept drift detection method outperforms the state-of-the-art drift detection methods, both on synthetic data sets and real-world data sets. Our approach is theoretically guaranteed as well as empirical and effective for the detection of various concept drifts. In addition to the drift detector, we proposed a new method of concept drift adaptation based on the severity of the drift.

In this paper, we study the estimation of the derivative of a regression function in a standard univariate regression model. The estimators are defined either by derivating nonparametric least-squares estimators of the regression function or by estimating the projection of the derivative. We prove two simple risk bounds allowing to compare our estimators. More elaborate bounds under a stability assumption are then provided. Bases and spaces on which we can illustrate our assumptions and first results are both of compact or non compact type, and we discuss the rates reached by our estimators. They turn out to be optimal in the compact case. Lastly, we propose a model selection procedure and prove the associated risk bound. To consider bases with a non compact support makes the problem difficult.

Over the past decade, the techniques of topological data analysis (TDA) have grown into prominence to describe the shape of data. In recent years, there has been increasing interest in developing statistical methods and in particular hypothesis testing procedures for TDA. Under the statistical perspective, persistence diagrams -- the central multi-scale topological descriptors of data provided by TDA -- are viewed as random observations sampled from some population or process. In this context, one of the earliest works on hypothesis testing focuses on the two-group permutation-based approach where the associated loss function is defined in terms of within-group pairwise bottleneck or Wasserstein distances between persistence diagrams (Robinson and Turner, 2017). However, in situations where persistence diagrams are large in size and number, the permutation test in question gets computationally more costly to apply. To address this limitation, we instead consider pairwise distances between vectorized functional summaries of persistence diagrams for the loss function. In the present work, we explore the utility of the Betti function in this regard, which is one of the simplest function summaries of persistence diagrams. We introduce an alternative vectorization method for the Betti function based on integration and prove stability results with respect to the Wasserstein distance. Moreover, we propose a new shuffling technique of group labels to increase the power of the test. Through several experimental studies, on both synthetic and real data, we show that the vectorized Betti function leads to competitive results compared to the baseline method involving the Wasserstein distances for the permutation test.

Hospitalisations from COVID-19 with Omicron sub-lineages have put a sustained pressure on the English healthcare system. Understanding the expected healthcare demand enables more effective and timely planning from public health. We collect syndromic surveillance sources, which include online search data, NHS 111 telephonic and online triages. Incorporating this data we explore generalised additive models, generalised linear mixed-models, penalised generalised linear models and model ensemble methods to forecast over a two-week forecast horizon at an NHS Trust level. Furthermore, we showcase how model combinations improve forecast scoring through a mean ensemble, weighted ensemble, and ensemble by regression. Validated over multiple Omicron waves, at different spatial scales, we show that leading indicators can improve performance of forecasting models, particularly at epidemic changepoints. Using a variety of scoring rules, we show that ensemble approaches outperformed all individual models, providing higher performance at a 21-day window than the corresponding individual models at 14-days. We introduce a modelling structure used by public health officials in England in 2022 to inform NHS healthcare strategy and policy decision making. This paper explores the significance of ensemble methods to improve forecasting performance and how novel syndromic surveillance can be practically applied in epidemic forecasting.

The package fnets for the R language implements the suite of methodologies proposed by Barigozzi et al. (2022) for the network estimation and forecasting of high-dimensional time series under a factor-adjusted vector autoregressive model, which permits strong spatial and temporal correlations in the data. Additionally, we provide tools for visualising the networks underlying the time series data after adjusting for the presence of factors. The package also offers data-driven methods for selecting tuning parameters including the number of factors, vector autoregressive order and thresholds for estimating the edge sets of the networks of interest in time series analysis. We demonstrate various features of fnets on simulated datasets as well as real data on electricity prices.

Large-scale networks are commonly encountered in practice (e.g., Facebook and Twitter) by researchers. In order to study the network interaction between different nodes of large-scale networks, the spatial autoregressive (SAR) model has been popularly employed. Despite its popularity, the estimation of a SAR model on large-scale networks remains very challenging. On the one hand, due to policy limitations or high collection costs, it is often impossible for independent researchers to observe or collect all network information. On the other hand, even if the entire network is accessible, estimating the SAR model using the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) could be computationally infeasible due to its high computational cost. To address these challenges, we propose here a subnetwork estimation method based on QMLE for the SAR model. By using appropriate sampling methods, a subnetwork, consisting of a much-reduced number of nodes, can be constructed. Subsequently, the standard QMLE can be computed by treating the sampled subnetwork as if it were the entire network. This leads to a significant reduction in information collection and model computation costs, which increases the practical feasibility of the effort. Theoretically, we show that the subnetwork-based QMLE is consistent and asymptotically normal under appropriate regularity conditions. Extensive simulation studies, based on both simulated and real network structures, are presented.

User engagement is a critical metric for evaluating the quality of open-domain dialogue systems. Prior work has focused on conversation-level engagement by using heuristically constructed features such as the number of turns and the total time of the conversation. In this paper, we investigate the possibility and efficacy of estimating utterance-level engagement and define a novel metric, {\em predictive engagement}, for automatic evaluation of open-domain dialogue systems. Our experiments demonstrate that (1) human annotators have high agreement on assessing utterance-level engagement scores; (2) conversation-level engagement scores can be predicted from properly aggregated utterance-level engagement scores. Furthermore, we show that the utterance-level engagement scores can be learned from data. These scores can improve automatic evaluation metrics for open-domain dialogue systems, as shown by correlation with human judgements. This suggests that predictive engagement can be used as a real-time feedback for training better dialogue models.