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We develop a new approach for the estimation of a multivariate function based on the economic axioms of quasiconvexity (and monotonicity). On the computational side, we prove the existence of the quasiconvex constrained least squares estimator (LSE) and provide a characterization of the function space to compute the LSE via a mixed integer quadratic programme. On the theoretical side, we provide finite sample risk bounds for the LSE via a sharp oracle inequality. Our results allow for errors to depend on the covariates and to have only two finite moments. We illustrate the superior performance of the LSE against some competing estimators via simulation. Finally, we use the LSE to estimate the production function for the Japanese plywood industry and the cost function for hospitals across the US.

We propose a novel prediction interval method to learn prediction mean values, lower and upper bounds of prediction intervals from three independently trained neural networks only using the standard mean squared error (MSE) loss, for uncertainty quantification in regression tasks. Our method requires no distributional assumption on data, does not introduce unusual hyperparameters to either the neural network models or the loss function. Moreover, our method can effectively identify out-of-distribution samples and reasonably quantify their uncertainty. Numerical experiments on benchmark regression problems show that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods with respect to predictive uncertainty quality, robustness, and identification of out-of-distribution samples.

Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) have been used extensively in statistical models of spike train data. However, the \cm{maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters and their uncertainty}, can \cm{be challenging to compute} in situations where response and non-response can be separated by a single predictor or a linear combination of multiple predictors. Such situations are likely to arise in many neural systems due to properties such as refractoriness and incomplete sampling of the signals that influence spiking. In this paper, we describe multiple classes of approaches to address this problem: \cm{using an optimization algorithm with a fixed iteration limit}, computing the maximum likelihood solution in the limit, Bayesian estimation, regularization, change of basis, and modifying the search parameters. We demonstrate a specific application of each of these methods to spiking data from rat somatosensory cortex and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each. We also provide an example of a roadmap for selecting a method based on the problem's particular analysis issues and scientific goals.

Non-parametric maximum likelihood estimation encompasses a group of classic methods to estimate distribution-associated functions from potentially censored and truncated data, with extensive applications in survival analysis. These methods, including the Kaplan-Meier estimator and Turnbull's method, often result in overfitting, especially when the sample size is small. We propose an improvement to these methods by applying kernel smoothing to their raw estimates, based on a BIC-type loss function that balances the trade-off between optimizing model fit and controlling model complexity. In the context of a longitudinal study with repeated observations, we detail our proposed smoothing procedure and optimization algorithm. With extensive simulation studies over multiple realistic scenarios, we demonstrate that our smoothing-based procedure provides better overall accuracy in both survival function estimation and individual-level time-to-event prediction by reducing overfitting. Our smoothing procedure decreases the discrepancy between the estimated and true simulated survival function using interval-censored data by up to 49% compared to the raw un-smoothed estimate, with similar improvements of up to 41% and 23% in within-sample and out-of-sample prediction, respectively. Finally, we apply our method to real data on censored breast cancer diagnosis, which similarly shows improvement when compared to empirical survival estimates from uncensored data. We provide an R package, SISE, for implementing our penalized likelihood method.

The estimation of Average Treatment Effect (ATE) as a causal parameter is carried out in two steps, wherein the first step, the treatment, and outcome are modeled to incorporate the potential confounders, and in the second step, the predictions are inserted into the ATE estimators such as the Augmented Inverse Probability Weighting (AIPW) estimator. Due to the concerns regarding the nonlinear or unknown relationships between confounders and the treatment and outcome, there has been an interest in applying non-parametric methods such as Machine Learning (ML) algorithms instead. \cite{farrell2018deep} proposed to use two separate Neural Networks (NNs) where there's no regularization on the network's parameters except the Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) in the NN's optimization. Our simulations indicate that the AIPW estimator suffers extensively if no regularization is utilized. We propose the normalization of AIPW (referred to as nAIPW) which can be helpful in some scenarios. nAIPW, provably, has the same properties as AIPW, that is double-robustness and orthogonality \citep{chernozhukov2018double}. Further, if the first step algorithms converge fast enough, under regulatory conditions \citep{chernozhukov2018double}, nAIPW will be asymptotically normal.

We consider parametric estimation for multi-dimensional diffusion processes with a small dispersion parameter $\varepsilon$ from discrete observations. For parametric estimation of diffusion processes, the main targets are the drift parameter $\alpha$ and the diffusion parameter $\beta$. In this paper, we propose two types of adaptive estimators for $(\alpha,\beta)$ and show their asymptotic properties under $\varepsilon\to0$, $n\to\infty$ and the balance condition that $(\varepsilon n^\rho)^{-1} =O(1)$ for some $\rho\ge 1/2$. In simulation studies, we examine and compare asymptotic behaviors of the two kinds of adaptive estimators. Moreover, we treat the SIR model which describes a simple epidemic spread for a biological application.

We consider the problem of dimensionality reduction for prediction of a target $Y\in\mathbb{R}$ to be explained by a covariate vector $X \in \mathbb{R}^p$, with a particular focus on extreme values of $Y$ which are of particular concern for risk management. The general purpose is to reduce the dimensionality of the statistical problem through an orthogonal projection on a lower dimensional subspace of the covariate space. Inspired by the sliced inverse regression (SIR) methods, we develop a novel framework (TIREX, Tail Inverse Regression for EXtreme response) relying on an appropriate notion of tail conditional independence in order to estimate an extreme sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) space of potentially smaller dimension than that of a classical SDR space. We prove the weak convergence of tail empirical processes involved in the estimation procedure and we illustrate the relevance of the proposed approach on simulated and real world data.

Despite the state-of-the-art performance for medical image segmentation, deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have rarely provided uncertainty estimations regarding their segmentation outputs, e.g., model (epistemic) and image-based (aleatoric) uncertainties. In this work, we analyze these different types of uncertainties for CNN-based 2D and 3D medical image segmentation tasks. We additionally propose a test-time augmentation-based aleatoric uncertainty to analyze the effect of different transformations of the input image on the segmentation output. Test-time augmentation has been previously used to improve segmentation accuracy, yet not been formulated in a consistent mathematical framework. Hence, we also propose a theoretical formulation of test-time augmentation, where a distribution of the prediction is estimated by Monte Carlo simulation with prior distributions of parameters in an image acquisition model that involves image transformations and noise. We compare and combine our proposed aleatoric uncertainty with model uncertainty. Experiments with segmentation of fetal brains and brain tumors from 2D and 3D Magnetic Resonance Images (MRI) showed that 1) the test-time augmentation-based aleatoric uncertainty provides a better uncertainty estimation than calculating the test-time dropout-based model uncertainty alone and helps to reduce overconfident incorrect predictions, and 2) our test-time augmentation outperforms a single-prediction baseline and dropout-based multiple predictions.

Estimating the head pose of a person is a crucial problem that has a large amount of applications such as aiding in gaze estimation, modeling attention, fitting 3D models to video and performing face alignment. Traditionally head pose is computed by estimating some keypoints from the target face and solving the 2D to 3D correspondence problem with a mean human head model. We argue that this is a fragile method because it relies entirely on landmark detection performance, the extraneous head model and an ad-hoc fitting step. We present an elegant and robust way to determine pose by training a multi-loss convolutional neural network on 300W-LP, a large synthetically expanded dataset, to predict intrinsic Euler angles (yaw, pitch and roll) directly from image intensities through joint binned pose classification and regression. We present empirical tests on common in-the-wild pose benchmark datasets which show state-of-the-art results. Additionally we test our method on a dataset usually used for pose estimation using depth and start to close the gap with state-of-the-art depth pose methods. We open-source our training and testing code as well as release our pre-trained models.

We develop an approach to risk minimization and stochastic optimization that provides a convex surrogate for variance, allowing near-optimal and computationally efficient trading between approximation and estimation error. Our approach builds off of techniques for distributionally robust optimization and Owen's empirical likelihood, and we provide a number of finite-sample and asymptotic results characterizing the theoretical performance of the estimator. In particular, we show that our procedure comes with certificates of optimality, achieving (in some scenarios) faster rates of convergence than empirical risk minimization by virtue of automatically balancing bias and variance. We give corroborating empirical evidence showing that in practice, the estimator indeed trades between variance and absolute performance on a training sample, improving out-of-sample (test) performance over standard empirical risk minimization for a number of classification problems.